2022 10th Round Pick (#287): Wyatt Cheney. RHP McLennan CC (Tx)

[LookinUp]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cheney000wya

Not sure why he's listed on the MLB site as McLennan CC. He pitched 2 years for Oklahoma State as far as I can tell. 

https://okstate.com/sports/baseball/roster/wyatt-cheney/9536

https://twitter.com/Texas_PG/status/1522999142976524288?s=20&t=ja-T6lrbCC2zTwl2a0AAnw

Initial Take: Short right-hander who transfered to a JUCO to finish off his college career that had stalled in Oklahoma. Low-90s fastball with a decent slider.

 

[7Mo]

He began his career at Okla St and then transferred to McLennan.

[oldfan]

#35 Wyatt Cheney (RHP) - McLennan Community College

APP 16  GS 15  W  10   L 3  SV 0  IP 81.2  ERA 3.20  K 122

[oldfan]

Plenty of high ranked HS players there to be had, O's have plenty of money left to pick up a couple of them.

[Jammer7]

28 minutes ago, oldfan said:

Plenty of high ranked HS players there to be had, O's have plenty of money left to pick up a couple of them.

I hope so, but I’m not so sure. We assume that there are several under slot guys, but there are some possible over slot types already. Some sophomores with options. I just don’t know. 

[oldfan]

When is a plan not a plan, but throwing darts?

[RZNJ]

Just now, oldfan said:

When is a plan not a plan, but throwing darts?

When one of the OH posters posts what he would do?

[Sydnor]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

I hope so, but I’m not so sure. We assume that there are several under slot guys, but there are some possible over slot types already. Some sophomores with options. I just don’t know. 

I agree with this. I think Beavers and Wagner are almost assuredly over slot.

I like high school players. Mike doesn’t (I understand that Holliday is from high school, but 1/10 in the last two drafts shows me that their model doesn’t like them and/or that he’s scared of the risk despite his best picks being Gunnar, Hernaiz, and Mayo). I’ve moved on and hope that the guys he drafts do well (while missing the Gary Rajsich days of upside plays).

[7Mo]

8 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I agree with this. I think Beavers and Wagner are almost assuredly over slot.

I like high school players. Mike doesn’t (I understand that Holliday is from high school, but 1/10 in the last two drafts shows me that their model doesn’t like them and/or that he’s scared of the risk despite his best picks being Gunnar, Hernaiz, and Mayo). I’ve moved on and hope that the guys he drafts do well (while missing the Gary Rajsich days of upside plays).

Do you feel that a college pick can't be an "upside play"?

[Sydnor]

8 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Do you feel that a college pick can't be an "upside play"?

I think Beavers and McClean are upside plays. My wording could have been better. I’d just like to see more high school picks because they are generally more projectable. For example, I enjoy a Ryan McKenna in the fourth round because it gives me more to dream on. Most of the kids after the first aren’t going to make it, so I just prefer the possibility that everything clicks for an athletic high school player to picking a college performer.

If you disagree, that’s cool. We don’t need to agree.

[Low Country Bird]

16 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I agree with this. I think Beavers and Wagner are almost assuredly over slot.

I like high school players. Mike doesn’t (I understand that Holliday is from high school, but 1/10 in the last two drafts shows me that their model doesn’t like them and/or that he’s scared of the risk despite his best picks being Gunnar, Hernaiz, and Mayo). I’ve moved on and hope that the guys he drafts do well (while missing the Gary Rajsich days of upside plays).

Beavers may be but as I said earlier, I don't think Wagner has any intention of going back to Clemson.  I'd be surprised if he's not at or under slot.

[Sydnor]

1 minute ago, Low Country Bird said:

Beavers may be but as I said earlier, I don't think Wagner has any intention of going back to Clemson.  I'd be surprised if he's not at or under slot.

Forgot your post. I was just guessing because he does have leverage as a sophomore. McClean could be over slot too.

[owknows]

10 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I agree with this. I think Beavers and Wagner are almost assuredly over slot.

I like high school players. Mike doesn’t (I understand that Holliday is from high school, but 1/10 in the last two drafts shows me that their model doesn’t like them and/or that he’s scared of the risk despite his best picks being Gunnar, Hernaiz, and Mayo). I’ve moved on and hope that the guys he drafts do well (while missing the Gary Rajsich days of upside plays).

The odds of playing three years of Major League Baseball are considerably better for College draftees than for High School draftees.

This becomes increasingly true as draft rounds progress.

The odds of playing three years of Major League Baseball are considerably better for a given High School position player than for a given High School pitcher drafted.

This becomes less true as rounds progress.

Statistically, it is value-advantageous to draft position players earlier... and if you're going to speculate on High School players, it is best to do so early... and with position players.

These advantages are substantial

If your intent is to be a metric driven team... Elias is "doin it right".

 

[Jammer7]

12 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I agree with this. I think Beavers and Wagner are almost assuredly over slot.

I like high school players. Mike doesn’t (I understand that Holliday is from high school, but 1/10 in the last two drafts shows me that their model doesn’t like them and/or that he’s scared of the risk despite his best picks being Gunnar, Hernaiz, and Mayo). I’ve moved on and hope that the guys he drafts do well (while missing the Gary Rajsich days of upside plays).

I don’t know about Beavers or Wagner being over, but likely at least slot. I suspect that McLean is over and probably Cheney. Maybe Hodo gets a little over his slot too. I really don’t know, kinda spit balling here.

Rajsich has some good draft picks, and his share of poor ones too. Hard to know which were dictated to him by ownership, DD or Buck…or Brady and whomever else. I think he was forced to take some guys to fill needs at the ML level. Quick moving relievers for DD, and Grenier has Buck’s fingerprints all over it. So, to be fair to Gary, he hit on Grayson, DL, Drew Rom and a few others like maybe Hanifee. I certainly do not think Akin and Lowther were great picks. 

My counter to this is that some of the college guys taken by Elias are and have been upside plays. Elias clearly believes in his player development and scouts. He looks for those who fit his model and are coachable. He looks for those who have significant athleticism and aptitude for unrealized value at lower costs. Elias believes in his coaches and physical trainers at an extreme level. We’ll see if they are as good as he thinks. I’m not super high on Hudson Haskin or Servideo. But I cannot find fault with Stowers, Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz and Mayo. Jury is still out on Kjerstad just yet, but it looks great so far. Cowser and Norby are looking so much better now. I suspect Ortiz is better than he has showed. I think his shoulder surgery hampered his preparation for this year.

If your issues are with upside pitchers, no argument. I wanted Brock Porter with 3-81. I guess they think grabbing McLean and Cheney were better than only getting Porter. IDK. Elias will never tell us, but a lot of the over slot HS pitchers fizzle out. Most of them, in fact. It’s a huge gamble, and that just isn’t Elias. 

We see the unicorn out there as the sexy pick, but the truth is we just don’t know what went into that decision. And, we don’t know what tomorrow brings either. He obviously prefers to acquire high end pitching in ways other than drafting HS kids with premium money demands. I can’t find fault with that. I want to, but I just can’t. He is the GM in Baltimore, not Boston, NY or LA. He cannot afford to miss right now on big expenditures. 

[Sydnor]

31 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I don’t know about Beavers or Wagner being over, but likely at least slot. I suspect that McLean is over and probably Cheney. Maybe Hodo gets a little over his slot too. I really don’t know, kinda spit balling here.

Rajsich has some good draft picks, and his share of poor ones too. Hard to know which were dictated to him by ownership, DD or Buck…or Brady and whomever else. I think he was forced to take some guys to fill needs at the ML level. Quick moving relievers for DD, and Grenier has Buck’s fingerprints all over it. So, to be fair to Gary, he hit on Grayson, DL, Drew Rom and a few others like maybe Hanifee. I certainly do not think Akin and Lowther were great picks. 

My counter to this is that some of the college guys taken by Elias are and have been upside plays. Elias clearly believes in his player development and scouts. He looks for those who fit his model and are coachable. He looks for those who have significant athleticism and aptitude for unrealized value at lower costs. Elias believes in his coaches and physical trainers at an extreme level. We’ll see if they are as good as he thinks. I’m not super high on Hudson Haskin or Servideo. But I cannot find fault with Stowers, Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz and Mayo. Jury is still out on Kjerstad just yet, but it looks great so far. Cowser and Norby are looking so much better now. I suspect Ortiz is better than he has showed. I think his shoulder surgery hampered his preparation for this year.

If your issues are with upside pitchers, no argument. I wanted Brock Porter with 3-81. I guess they think grabbing McLean and Cheney were better than only getting Porter. IDK. Elias will never tell us, but a lot of the over slot HS pitchers fizzle out. Most of them, in fact. It’s a huge gamble, and that just isn’t Elias. 

We see the unicorn out there as the sexy pick, but the truth is we just don’t know what went into that decision. And, we don’t know what tomorrow brings either. He obviously prefers to acquire high end pitching in ways other than drafting HS kids with premium money demands. I can’t find fault with that. I want to, but I just can’t. He is the GM in Baltimore, not Boston, NY or LA. He cannot afford to miss right now on big expenditures. 

To be 100% clear, I think that the organization is in significantly better shape under Elias than the previous regime and I’m not saying that I would take Rajsich over Elias’ crew. I was only saying that I would like a few more high school swings notwithstanding that college players can also be upside swings.

When you say you can’t find fault in Stowers, Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz, and Mayo, I can’t either, and 3/5 were high school players. The staff is good at identifying high school players! I also wonder if their hands are a bit tied because ownership won’t approve spending the 5% overage. 

With respect to Rajsich he wasn’t perfect, and you identified some of his hits. Others included Mountcastle and Hader, and college players like Mancini, Hays, and Mullins. I thought he did pretty well despite forfeited picks and the interference you identified. But again, I’m happy with Elias and his team, and wasn’t trying to say I was wish he was still running the draft.

I’m sure what @owknowssaid about college players being more likely to have a 3 year career is true. What does a three year career mean? Does it mean they produced replacement level or better production?

I’m not saying it’s wrong to look at the draft that way, just that you can look at it differently. One can make a number of arguments based on career WAR, prospect lists, etc. For example, with respect to Fangraphs current Top 100, 42 were drafted out of high school players, 28 were international signings, and 30 were drafted out of college or JUCO.

I also don’t disagree that he can’t afford to miss on high expenditures. I don’t know what the numbers are for the players selected, but I would just like to see one more high school player rather than a physically maxed out college performer in the 7th because a 3 year below replacement level career from a 7th rounder is less valuable to me than taking one shot on finding a Hader. I have no problem with a whiff on Willems (though I think it’s way too early to write him off) because they took a shot.

In conclusion, I have no problem with the draft. They know more than me. I hope the draft has good results. I think they’re good at drafting high school players and I’d rather take a swing on a high school player than Ryan Higgins or Johnny Rizer.