Will the Orioles eventually increase payroll significantly?

[deward]

Just now, owknows said:

By your own admission...  Elias wants to win.

And of course Ownership.. Hired Mike Elias... and made him the highest paid GM in the history of baseball when he was hired...

Because they want to... lose.

Because reasons and stuff.

Because he promised them he could gut the payroll and keep it that way? Why do you find it so difficult to accept that ownership should never be trusted? 

I'd love to be wrong. I want them to win. We'll see.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, deward said:

Every prospect you trade Juan Soto for is a potential failure waiting to happen.

That's why you trade for multiple players in return.

Soto turned down 440 million for 14 years.

He'd be in his late 30's with the compensation backloaded.

Thankfully, the Orioles seem to have chosen a different path.

 

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, deward said:

 Why do you find it so difficult to accept that ownership should never be trusted?

LOL... now I understand.

They're all cigar smoking fat guys in 3 piece suits with caviar stains on their ties... and every one of them an untrustworthy jerk.

(class envy is really kind of an ugly thing)

[owknows]

8 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

What I’m saying is if Tampa can sign Franco and Cleveland can extend Jose Ramirez twice, the Orioles can extend important players as well. I would give Henderson an extension today. I would give Rutschman an extension today. If you want to trade them in year 5, cool. You’ll get more for them with the extra control, so I don’t think it’s smart just to go year to year if you have players that will agree to extensions and Elias probably feels the same given that Houston signed Altuve and Bergman to extensions. If the player is unwilling to do that and Henderson won’t because Boras Corp., then you don’t. I’m not saying they can make a play for Soto and I don’t think it would make sense even if they could. I’m talking about extending pre-Arb players or players like Ramirez (I.e., elite and want to stay).

They may extend players... and if they do... I'd expect them to do it early... amortizing their risk for a discount...

And if they can't... I'd expect them to trade them away with an ARB year left.

I don't think they'll be signing any guys to 100 million dollar deals during the ARB years.

Just my guess.

[deward]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

That's why you trade for multiple players in return.

Soto turned down 440 million for 14 years.

He'd be in his late 30's with the compensation backloaded.

Thankfully, the Orioles seem to have chosen a different path.

 

Someone in one of the other threads listed all of the trades in the past couple of decades where the O's sold off a player, and showed just how little they got back in the end. I won't be surprised if the combined WAR from the gaggle of players that Washington got for Soto today turns out to be less than that of Soto over the next 10 years. The Padres won that deal all day long. That's a franchise that is TRYING to win. They don't even have to sign Soto to an extension to make that deal worthwhile. 

I'm not saying the O's need to operate like the Yankees and Dodgers in order to win. I am saying that penny-pinching won't be the answer either. It's possible to spend money on talent AND continue to maintain a strong farm system. Other teams do that. There's no reason this team can't. 

[bpilktree]

3 hours ago, scbalt52 said:

Just a guess but I think the orioles are around 100 mill payroll by opening day next year

We are currently at 9 million guaranteed going into next season.  Yeah some guys will get increases in arbitration but that might get you 25 million more if you pick up Lyles option.  I see no way they get to anything close to 100 million.

[owknows]

Just now, deward said:

Someone in one of the other threads listed all of the trades in the past couple of decades where the O's sold off a player, and showed just how little they got back in the end.

Yeah... they had some pretty bad Front Office people over the years

[deward]

8 minutes ago, owknows said:

LOL... now I understand.

They're all cigar smoking fat guys in 3 piece suits with caviar stains on their ties... and every one of them an untrustworthy jerk.

(class envy is really kind of an ugly thing)

The untrustworthy jerk part is correct far more often than not. The fashion sense varies.

[deward]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

Yeah... they had some pretty bad Front Office people over the years

Some, but that's also the nature of relying on prospects. It's a gamble. For every Bedard-style jackpot, you get 10 swings and misses. It's not a reliable method of maintaining a winning team.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, deward said:

The untrustworthy jerk part is correct far more often than not. The fashion sense varies.

My life experience shows a pretty fair cross-section of untrustworthy jerks.

Some successful. Some not.

I usually try to keep my trust decisions objective.

Basing the way you evaluate and treat people on arbitrary and unrelated criteria like "ownership" or "not ownership" seems like a pretty good way to end up in the category yourself.

[deward]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

My life experience shows a pretty fair cross-section of untrustworthy jerks.

Some successful. Some not.

I usually try to keep my trust decisions objective.

Basing the way you evaluate and treat people on arbitrary and unrelated criteria like "ownership" or "not ownership" seems like a pretty good way to end up in the category yourself.

Let's focus on this ownership then. This ownership has been largely incompetent over the past 30 years, and in recent years, based on their actions, been mostly interested in keeping costs low. This ownership is currently embroiled in an ugly lawsuit with accusations being flung left and right against each other. You'll have to forgive me if I see no reason to take their word on anything. Let them prove it.

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, deward said:

Some, but that's also the nature of relying on prospects. It's a gamble. For every Bedard-style jackpot, you get 10 swings and misses. It's not a reliable method of maintaining a winning team.

All baseball decisions are gambles.

Whether you're signing a player to a huge decade-long contract, or trading a player for multiple prospects.

We tried our hand at a huge decade-long contract... didn't work out so well.

Seems like ownership learned something valuable from that.

So they hired a GM to devise a different strategy. One that plays out kinda slowly.

But we're nearing the end of the prep phase, and entering the fruitful phase.

The club really doesn't seem to have an interest in squandering the hard won progress by rushing out to sign another 10 year mega-deal.

And in spite of that, will field a contender in the toughest division in baseball for the foreseeable future.

Some people are OK with that.

[Orioles0615]

50 minutes ago, owknows said:

I think your preference, or mine, is a matter of complete indifference to the Orioles.

Their objective is to put a perpetual contender on the field.

And a mid-market team can't afford a 10 year Juan Soto.

Even if he's home grown.

Sorry

Every damn team in baseball can afford Juan Soto. Stop licking owners boots 

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, owknows said:

I think your preference, or mine, is a matter of complete indifference to the Orioles.

Their objective is to put a perpetual contender on the field.

And a mid-market team can't afford a 10 year Juan Soto.

Even if he's home grown.

Sorry

Every single team in the league can afford Soto.

[owknows]

Just now, deward said:

Let's focus on this ownership then. This ownership has been largely incompetent over the past 30 years, and in recent years, based on their actions, been mostly interested in keeping costs low. This ownership is currently embroiled in an ugly lawsuit with accusations being flung left and right against each other. You'll have to forgive me if I see no reason to take their word on anything. Let them prove it.

Thankfully, their execution of a sane baseball strategy doesn't require you to believe them, or acknowledge their motives.