I don't want to become the Rays

[winning]

Hey guys, been following the Os and their rebuild and I must say I am pleased with all the talent and the jolt of quality in our farm system. As well as our rise up the standings this season. However, I must say that I am worried about one possible outcome. That is we become the Tampa Bay Rays. A small market, low payroll team that is all about "the pipeline" and we have perpetual 87 win seasons and an inevitable exit from the postseason. Don't want.

 

I want to win the World Series. Flags fly forever. To me the only objective in baseball is to win the World Series. As an Orioles fan, winning the World Series is the only thing that accounts. The only thing that matters. To that point, I support either rebuilding for the future (so that we can win it in the future) or going all in when the window opens. I do not believe the window is now this season, but we are approaching it and it could open as early as next year.

 

So with that said, are we going to actually do what it takes to win the World Series? We must acquire a veteran ace. I have a hard time seeing us winning the World Series unless we go out and get a guy like say Jacob DeGrom, Justin Verlander, Dylan Cease, etc. Will it cost an absolute arm and a leg to acquire one of these guys? And will it have to be on a team who is selling (why would a contender give him up)? Yes, of course.  Are we trying to win the World Series or stack up 87 win seasons? I do not know what it will take to get a veteran ace as far as returns go, but it will be a hefty price tag.

[Sports Guy]

You don’t want to be an organization that is consistently smart, consistently wins and makes the playoffs and consistently churns out high level young players?  

[DrungoHazewood]

1. The Rays have won 90 or more games seven times in the last 12 years.

2. Whether or not a team wins 87 or 90 or 95 games is often luck.  Luck in injuries, luck in one-run games. 

3. There is some difference in outcomes for a wildcard that has to go through an extra game/round of playoffs.  But the odds of a 95-win team beating a 87-win team in a short series are like 53-47 or something like that.  It's not quite a coin flip, but close.

4. Better players make for a better team.  But I don't know that there's any objective evidence that shows there's any secret sauce to winning in October.  You build a good team and hope for the best. Sure, it would be great to have a HOF caliber ace.  Just like it would be great to have a HOF caliber anything.

5. The Dodgers/Yanks do have an advantage in that they can build a productive farm system and paper over holes with massive spending at the same time.  It would be nice if the O's had a $200M+ budget, but that seems far fetched.  So they have to be more like the Rays.

So to sum up, I'd be thrilled if the 2022-2035 Orioles had similar successes to the 2008-2022 Rays.  It would be nice to get a Series win in there, but all you can do is build a consistent 90-win organization based on a solid talent base developed in the minors and cross your fingers.

[foxfield]

I get the OP.  But if the O's fail and become the Rays, I would accept the horror much better than I have lived with '84-'22.

But hey, let's become as consistent as the Rays but do it one better by winning 3 or 4 titles.  Then everyone can be happy.

[glenn__davis]

As Drungo mentioned, winning in the postseason in baseball is as much about luck as it is anything else.   If you build a team that can win 90+ games you've got about as good a shot as anyone.

[winning]

4 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

As Drungo mentioned, winning in the postseason in baseball is as much about luck as it is anything else.   If you build a team that can win 90+ games you've got about as good a shot as anyone.

It becomes a much easier task if you have a veteran ace who can go in there and blow away the opposing lineup. We are going to need a guy who can blow em away. I'm not a huge stat guy. I watch the games and I understand that it takes pitching to win the title.

[wildcard]

I'd rather grow an ace.... Grayson.

[2001OriolesFan]

Well the first thing is to rebuild to put a good starting team on the field.  We have that and a good pipeline for position players.  We neglected drafting pitchers, so other than rodriguez and hall, there are not "knock you soxs off" candidate.  So the recent trades helped restock that a bit. That is going in the right direction. ... ... What I see (hope I see) happening is that the O's are waiting until the wave of superior position players is developed and ready for the MLB team. Then they will discard/trade some players (Mateo, Odor, Urias) and bring in Gunnar, Vavra, Westburg.  Stowers, Cowser, Haskins will come in and we could see Mullens, Hays or Santader dealt in a package for a veteran pitcher.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, winning said:

It becomes a much easier task if you have a veteran ace who can go in there and blow away the opposing lineup. We are going to need a guy who can blow em away. I'm not a huge stat guy. I watch the games and I understand that it takes pitching to win the title.

Veteran aces falter in the playoffs all the time.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

The Yankees run a $200+ million dollar team full of big name superstars and future HOFers out there every single year but have only won a single championship in the last 2+ decades, in 2009.

The MLB playoffs are a crapshoot. Just get in.

[winning]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The Yankees run a $200+ million dollar team full of big name superstars and future HOFers out there every single year but have only won a single championship in the last 2+ decades, in 2009.

The MLB playoffs are a crapshoot. Just get in.

 

They are not the only team with those payrolls. The top 10 teams in payroll this season feature 8 winning records including multiple teams with dominant records.

[glenn__davis]

23 minutes ago, winning said:

It becomes a much easier task if you have a veteran ace who can go in there and blow away the opposing lineup. We are going to need a guy who can blow em away. I'm not a huge stat guy. I watch the games and I understand that it takes pitching to win the title.

There have been teams that have won with that stud guy, and teams that haven't.  And as Sports Guy mentioned there have been plenty of veteran aces that haven't had great postseason success.

That said, I'm certainly not going to complain if the Orioles acquire an ace starting pitcher

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, winning said:

They are not the only team with those payrolls

But they are the one with the most available data.

For all of the Coles and Sabathias and Mussinas they have spents pallets upon pallets of cash on over the last 20+ years, they have exactly 1 championship to show for it.

Because the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot.

[LookinUp]

Hell, I think this is a good thread.

We have a million threads talking about trading guys for starting pitching. Signing starting pitching. Drafting more starting pitching.

This guys says we need to make it happen even if it costs a lot. Basically, be the Rays but with more ability to retain talent or pay for need.

Isn't that what we all want? Sometimes it feels like people come here to shoot down anything they can.

[winning]

10 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

But they are the one with the most available data.

For all of the Coles and Sabathias and Mussinas they have spents pallets upon pallets of cash on over the last 20+ years, they have exactly 1 championship to show for it.

Because the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

They also won in 96, 98, 99 and 2000. There are obvious advantages to acquiring a veteran ace starter. In fact, most teams that win the World Series have 1 or even 2 veteran aces that they did not draft. People can talk all they want about homegrown talent and yes that is the foundation to any team with a payroll under $200 million. But you need pitching to win. It's great tearing the cover off the ball. That's awesome. End of the day you need to pitch.