I don't want to become the Rays

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

Totally agree with most of this.  I do not think we will be the 30th ranked team in payroll for much longer.  And there is definitely a correlation between wins and payroll, especially in the regular season.  The Dodgers won 8 straight division titles before plummeting all the way to 2nd last year......(despite winning 106!).    I don't see us having Dodger-sized payrolls but I see us getting close to that 9th place area that you mentioned.    Now will that happen by 2023?   Can't say for sure.....that would be a huge shift.  We will have to see.

It's almost impossible to go from a $30M payroll to a $130M payroll in one offseason.  That would require the Baltimore Orioles signing the equivalent of four superstar free agents in one offseason, while 29 other teams are trying to sign those same players. That would be 5-6 Chris Davis contracts.  Over time the payroll will naturally grow as players hit arb, and some homegrown players are resigned or signed to deals buying out arb/free agent years. 

But I don't expect some 1996-97 Orioles shopping spree on steroids.  They don't need it, and it's logistically almost impossible.

[Sports Guy]

Personally, I don’t feel most of this is that difficult.

There are many ways to build a winner but unless you are NY and trade every prospect and spend stupid money, you have to build from within to be a consistent winner.  Even the Dodgers, who spend dumb money, use their farm system the way they should.  They routinely have ROY candidates, trade guys when they should, bring up pieces to augment the team, etc…

A team like the Orioles need to be smart but they will and should have a larger margin for error than Tampa.

The idea of a pipeline is real And isn’t to be overlooked.  You need to let players go before they get too old and, while it may sound crazy to say it, too old is usually around 30.

Thats not to say you don’t have guys at 30 or older.  It means that you don’t have them on long term deals.  It means that you don’t hold onto them because your fans like them.  Very few guys are worth that contract after arb is over, at least the big contract.  
 

Recent talk has been about free agency and what we can and should do in the offseason.  Short term deals is the answer to the question.  Higher AAV and shorter deals is the way to do things and if that means you miss out on players, so be it.  Who cares?  
 

Every year, we get into debates about free agents and if they are worth it or not.  The answer is almost always going to be, no they aren’t worth it. Relying on FAs is largely a path to failure.  However, there are some FAs who end up being worth it, many of which are signed to shorter deals, like Scherzer for example.

The focus of the Orioles needs to be on developing their own core, not paying for it.  It needs to be on having the last 8-12 guys on the roster cost you very little.  Those are usually highly replaceable pieces and there is no reason to have the Jay Payton and Jamie Walkers of the world making 3-6M a year.  You should be able to produce those players or find them for nothing, like this years team has done.

And then, if you want to drop a 2/75 deal on Verlander, who cares…it costs you nothing long term and short term the deal doesn’t hurt you even if he never throws an inning.  

That’s how you build a sustainable winner when you don’t have infinite resources.  

You draft, develop, sign Intl FAs, trade guys a year too early, don’t over extend yourself in FA and don’t get emotionally tied to players.   Yes, you will have your rare guy..a Ripken, a Trout, someone like that.  But for the most part, when you get emotionally invested in players, you end up with bad contracts.

The Orioles have the FO to pull this off but do they have the ownership?  Do we have an ownership that is committed to winning?  We don’t need to have a 150-200M payroll.  But we do need to have a 90-130M payroll. You do that and we will have enough resources to contend year in and year out, assuming we can continue to develop and draft well and I will assume that will happen as long Elias and his team are here.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Orioles had Saunders in 2012.  From 2010-2012 Saunders was 30-43, 4.07 ERA, 99 ERA+, 4.50 FIP, 5.1 K/9.  On most playoff teams he was a mid-to-back rotation starter.

Since 2019 Lyles is 32-35, 4.88, 88 ERA+, 4.98 FIP, 7.7 K/9.  He's almost on Saunders' level, but not quite.

The Yanks' top five starters each have an ERA about half a run a game better than Lyles, or more.

For their careers, Saunders was worth about 10 WAR more than Lyles has been worth in 2 less seasons than Lyles. Prime Joe Saunders would easily be the ace of the 2022 Orioles rotation. 

(Words I never expected to write in that configuration: "Prime Joe Saunders")

[wildcard]

According to Wiki Houston ranks 5th in Metro population with 7.2M.   Baltimore is 20th with 2.8M.    O's may not be able to follow the Astro model because of revenue.

Edited August 12, 2022 by wildcard

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

According to Wiki Houston ranks 5th in Metro population with 7.2M.   Baltimore is 20th with 2.8M.    O's made not be about to follow the Astro model because of revenue.

Yes, it's more likely the Orioles follow the Rays' model than the Astros.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, it's more likely the Orioles follow the Rays' model than the Astros.

I agree.

[DenaOsHon]

Rays/Cards model is what I hope we become and is very achievable with current leadership in place. Very curious to see what happens this off-season with ownership.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

According to Wiki Houston ranks 5th in Metro population with 7.2M.   Baltimore is 20th with 2.8M.    O's made not be about to follow the Astro model because of revenue.

The Orioles can afford to run a $150 million dollar payroll, which is closer to the Astros' average payroll than the Rays'.

 

[JR Oriole]

I do think there is some element of truth about the playoffs being a crapshoot.....especially with expanded playoffs.  I was trying to think of some commonalities amongst the champions of the last 20 years.  The 2010/12/14 Giants were truly mediocre teams that had a lot of scrubs come up big in big moments....but they also had good starting pitching and in the case of Bumgarner, a ridiculously dominant postseason pitcher. The Red Sox teams that won in 2004/07/13 had David Ortiz, who was so dominant in October that it carried his teams.  The 2015 Royals and 2020 Dodgers collectively became so selective on pitches up and down the lineup that it was like watching a bunch of John Oleruds and Adley Rutschmans......they swung at literally nothing out of the strike zone.  The 2006/11 Cardinals were weaker than their opponents, but whether it was the other squad making countless errors (2006) or the luck of Freese (2011), they made it work.  The 2016 Cubs and 2017 Astros won with incredible young talent that all came together at once, along with some aces.  The 2019 Nats had great starters and a completely fearless Soto.  So with all of the different attributes of champions over the years, maybe the only common factor in winning a title is you have to have at least some players who aren't overwhelmed by the moment (like Brandon Lowe in Tampa seems to be) and can come through in big spots when you really need them to.    

[sportsfan8703]

I wish we were like the Rays and would lock Gunnar up to a Wander Franco like deal and call him up. 

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The Orioles can afford to run a $150 million dollar payroll, which is closer to the Astros' average payroll than the Rays'.

The Orioles have had top 5 or 10 payrolls for brief periods around 1998 and then 2017-18.  I suppose anything could happen with a new ownership group, but they've never sustained a high payroll for more than a few years. 

Forbes estimates the Orioles revenues have maxed out around $250M, while the top teams are over $500M, the Yanks over $650M.  $150M payroll is asking a team with 40% of the revenues to have a payroll that's 75% of the top teams. I wouldn't count on that.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, DenaOsHon said:

Rays/Cards model is what I hope we become and is very achievable with current leadership in place. Very curious to see what happens this off-season with ownership.

I don't think the Rays and Cards have the same model.  I would love to have the Cardinals' model where they've become a regional powerhouse and punch way above their metro area's expected revenue generation. But being hemmed in by Philly, Washington and to some extent Pittsburgh I think that's unlikely.

[tntoriole]

When I think of how awful and for how long the Astros and Rays both were…. Now they are both synonymous with winning … We were once that synonym in the late 60s early 70s 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

9 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The Orioles can afford to run a $150 million dollar payroll, which is closer to the Astros' average payroll than the Rays'.

 

The Longoria deal is probably a better comp than the Franco deal since Franco had a half season of MLB play under his belt when they offered him the extension, while Longoria had yet to even make his MLB debut IIRC.

Either way though, they should 100% be blowing up his agent's phone with a legit long-term extension offer of some kind.

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Orioles have had top 5 or 10 payrolls for brief periods around 1998 and then 2017-18.  I suppose anything could happen with a new ownership group, but they've never sustained a high payroll for more than a few years. 

Forbes estimates the Orioles revenues have maxed out around $250M, while the top teams are over $500M, the Yanks over $650M.  $150M payroll is asking a team with 40% of the revenues to have a payroll that's 75% of the top teams. I wouldn't count on that.

Yeah, I would not expect that level of spending every single year, but when the times call for it (i.e. Adley, GrayRod, and Gunnar are all in their arb years and the objective for the season is WS or bust), they can go that high.

[DenaOsHon]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't think the Rays and Cards have the same model.  I would love to have the Cardinals' model where they've become a regional powerhouse and punch way above their metro area's expected revenue generation. But being hemmed in by Philly, Washington and to some extent Pittsburgh I think that's unlikely.

Great point. I just admire the Cards franchise so much and one we should aspire to be.