Can someone please explain what happened this season to the O's?

[kidrock]

Hey O's faithful,  I have been a fan of the O's since 1999.  Though, I am not nearly as knowledgeable as some of the cats on here.  Can someone please explain in laymans terms, what the heck happened to the team?  Why have they, as a team, exceeded expectations so much.  Is it really bullpen and defense?  When I look through the stats, they just don't seem like they should be over 500.  Is the team's defense really that good?  Is the bullpen that good?  Are some of these starters better than the general public thought?  Is Adley really a 5-10 game improvement from one person?  Is Elias' player development finally starting to work? Thanks

 

[Can_of_corn]

Shrug.

 

A lot of the difference is pitching and we won't really know if what we are seeing is real until we see if they can sustain it.

Take Voth for instance.

He's 30.

He's got a career ERA over 5 and was horrid with the Nats earlier this year.

He's been great for the O's.

Did they find some flaw the Nats missed? 

Is he just on some hot streak?

Both?

 

About the only thing I'm sure of is that Adley is for real and he's a MVP caliber player.

[UMDTerrapins]

Adley is a huge difference. Mateo has made a big difference. The bottom three of the order not being a black hole has made a difference. Hays/Santander staying off the IL has made a difference. But to me, the biggest difference is in the secret sauce the staff has done with our pitchers. It gets suspicious when waiver claim after waiver claim goes from good arm/bad results to good arm/good results. They're doing a great job of identifying talented arms, but what they're doing with them is something we've never seen before. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

I think defense is a large part of it.

[UMDTerrapins]

10 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Adley is a huge difference. Mateo has made a big difference. The bottom three of the order not being a black hole has made a difference. Hays/Santander staying off the IL has made a difference. But to me, the biggest difference is in the secret sauce the staff has done with our pitchers. It gets suspicious when waiver claim after waiver claim goes from good arm/bad results to good arm/good results. They're doing a great job of identifying talented arms, but what they're doing with them is something we've never seen before. 

Speaking of the waiver wire, is Hirokazu Sawamura a guy we pick up if he's available? 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Oh, and the wall

[tntoriole]

10 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Adley is a huge difference. Mateo has made a big difference. The bottom three of the order not being a black hole has made a difference. Hays/Santander staying off the IL has made a difference. But to me, the biggest difference is in the secret sauce the staff has done with our pitchers. It gets suspicious when waiver claim after waiver claim goes from good arm/bad results to good arm/good results. They're doing a great job of identifying talented arms, but what they're doing with them is something we've never seen before. 

The wall has helped our pitchers too.. directly and indirectly. Confidence is a fragile thing.  Defense absolutely.  Rutschman, Mateo, Mullins up the middle may be best central defense in MLB

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

The wall has helped our pitchers too.. directly and indirectly. Confidence is a fragile thing.  Defense absolutely.  Rutschman, Mateo, Mullins up the middle may be best central defense in MLB

But it's been odd that the effect of the wall hasn't been equal.  Is that sustainable?

 

 

Yes I know Elias has been accumulating left handed power to take advantage, it's still a thing.

 

[Hallas]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But it's been odd that the effect of the wall hasn't been equal.  Is that sustainable?

 

 

Yes I know Elias has been accumulating left handed power to take advantage, it's still a thing.

 

So statcast had the 3 year park effect last year at 105.  This year the 1 year park effect is 98.  What I'm not sure is what park adjusted stats are using the 1 year park effect.  Fangraphs WAR calculation does appear to be using it. I don't know about other stats like OPS+.

 

Also the 3 year park effect this year is 101, which is clearly wrong, so hopefully no one is using that.

 

I think players do get credit if they are somehow less susceptible to a park's effects due to handedness or whatever.

 

I think that contouring your roster to your home park's park effects does get you some runs at the margins.  OPACY's one year park effects are more severe for RHB.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Hallas

[bpilktree]

One of the hardest things a team that is when you are used to losing that is the culture in the clubhouse.  You have to change the culture before you can win and that comes with the belief in you and the team and the preparation you have before the game.  I remember reading about the Astros and their turn around and it is almost the same exact think.  They brought in the new front office and coaching and had an entirely new approach but they didn’t see any results really after a year or two.  Then they brought in a few veterans and other guys that fully bought into what the organizations plan was.   I feel that is what has happened and sometimes you need to fail before you really can change.  I think that is what has happened if you just look at Kremer last year when things went wrong he would start to nibble then would implode.  This season when things go wrong he seems to get angry and bears down.  If Hyde comes out to get him he seems to get mad and wants to stay in there 

When Buck came here the biggest thing people said he did was change the culture of the club that was used to losing.  Which he did but because he was a veteran manager that players trusted  it wasn’t a big surprise.  Hyde and the staff here are not veterans so they don’t get that from fans on the outside but you can see the change in this team and how they play the game compared to last year.  Voth came here and bought right into what the coaching staff was teaching most likely because the other players here had already bought into it and were seeing the improvements like Aiken who has pitched much better because he started attacking hitters and not nibbling.  If you don’t give free passes it is a lot harder for teams to score.   Hyde Elias and his staff have changed the culture of this team you don’t need to be a 20 year veteran to change the culture you just have to have the players trust the process and buy into it.  Some guys will and other guys won’t so you have to move on from guys that won’t buy in.   
 

Right now the culture has changed but we still don’t have the talent we will need to really win in playoffs and hopefully championships.  The good thing is the players and coaches on other teams are seeing the change and hopefully we can bring more talent up and also get major league talent to want to come here for free agency.  

[Aristotelian]

Pitching has gone from league worst to above average despite losing our top starter and not getting our top pitching prospect. The bullpen has been outstanding despite converting our 2021 closer into a starter and then trading our All Star closer for prospects. It really makes zero sense. I think Adley has helped. Maybe something Holt is doing but that is really hard to judge.

I actually think the offense has been pretty meh but the plus defense has helped the pitching. 

Who cares? Let's enjoy it. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 hours ago, kidrock said:

Can someone please explain in laymans terms, what the heck happened to the team? 

Rougned Odor has everybody in the dugout PUMPED.

There may or may not be other factors, I dunno. I'm not a scientist.

[SilverRocket]

Pitching Coaching: what they've done with Austin Voth, Spenser Watkins, Dean Kremer, etc. is the biggest part. The bullpen pieces are also all improved from a year ago.

Defense: Three elite defenders, quietly solid Urias, and the rest at least reliable at balls they get to with good arms. Mullins and Mateo cover a lot of ground to offset the limited range of the corners.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Rougned Odor has everybody in the dugout PUMPED.

There may or may not be other factors, I dunno. I'm not a scientist.

Seriously? Umm No!

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Speaking of the waiver wire, is Hirokazu Sawamura a guy we pick up if he's available? 

I think he’s better than the last pen guy or two. I seriously doubt he makes it to us.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/red-sox-designate-hirokazu-sawamura-for-assignment.html