Would you offer a 10/$50 mm deal right now to any of these MiL players?

[owknows]

The real poll should be of the players who would be willing to sign a 10/50 deal today...

 

maybe Norby... Ortiz... Hall

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

And this would be the reaction from Boras (Gunnar's agent) if you offered 10/$50M today. Even last year it seems unlikely unless you offered put an opt out in the contract.  

Gunnar wasn't a Boras client last season.

[7Mo]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Gunnar wasn't a Boras client last season.

But he wasn't unaware either. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

But he wasn't unaware either. 

Not sure what you mean?

I'm not suggesting that Gunnar had incompetent agents or anything, just that it isn't accurate to state he was a Boras client last year.

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not sure what you mean?

I'm not suggesting that Gunnar had incompetent agents or anything, just that it isn't accurate to state he was a Boras client last year.

I mean he wasn't unaware of his talent and he's a confident guy, and has a right to be. 

A part of those 10 year deals requires a discount for the inherent risk. Gunnar seems like a guy who is likely to bet on his high side rather than play it safe. 

It didn't require hiring Boras for him to get there. 

[Pickles]

43 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

And this would be the reaction from Boras (Gunnar's agent) if you offered 10/$50M today. Even last year it seems unlikely unless you offered put an opt out in the contract.  

He's be a fool to laugh at that offer.

Unless he thinks Gunnar is going to be clearly better than Manny Machado, very unlikely imo.

[CharmCityHokie]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Yes I believe it would. He’s the 1:1 pick and his dad was an all star. I doubt that would be his mindset. 

Plus he has Boras as his agent. I would bet his dad and Boras step in and have something to say about him taking such a “low offer” for the bulk of his career. If his social-economic circumstances were different he might have more incentive to see different. But given who he is and who his influences are, I highly doubt that he considers 10 yrs for 50 million as a serious offer.

To wit, Ty Wigginton was an All Star so I'm not sure that factors in.

I didn't vote for Holliday, but I think Holliday may entertain it, because it basically drastically accelerates his timetable to the majors. Hypothetically, he'd make between $10-15mm just to play in the minors and would play out his options and he'd have to be in the bigs for good. Depends on what's important to him; money or being in the Show asap.

[Jagwar]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm just excited we evidently have an all/none option in polls.

IMO this is the only correct answer. 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Time for folks to go on record. If you knew the player would agree, would you offer a 10-year, $50 mm deal right now to any of the MiL players listed in the poll?   Vote for as many as you want.  In every case, the ten years begins in 2023, regardless of whether the player reaches the majors that year.  

Just for some frames of reference, here’s how much some ex-Oriole players made in their first 10 years in the majors: 

Manny Machado $155 mm

Jake Arrieta $87 mm

Nick Markakis $78.5 mm

Matt Wieters $59.5 mm

Adam Jones $44 mm

JJ Hardy $40 mm

Jonathan Schoop $39 mm

Brian Roberts $32 mm

Chris Tillman $25 mm

For the players listed in the poll for whom you would not be willing to offer 10/$50 mm, is there some lesser 10-year deal you’d be willing to offer, and if so, how much?
 

I’d probably do Adley and Gunnar right now. Maybe Grayson but I’d like to see them up here at very least a few starts. Right now I’d let Hall ride to be sure he can fix the control issues.

[Filmstudy]

Yes on Grayrod, Cowser, Holliday all I would expect for PV of earnings over $50M over 10 years and each is capable of dwarfing that number.

Hall is a no, although I think he could be good.  Too much risk as a pitcher who has yet to put it together and may be a reliever.  I'll ride out his time as an Oriole and see how it goes.

Norby (22) I see as an above-average ML hitter, but he will suffer some from Camden Yards.  He'll likely be ready for a ML callup next September, so let's call it 9 ML seasons are possible.  I'm not sure Norby or his agent would be thrilled about a contract that sends him to Free agency for his baseball age 33 season.  I'm not thrilled about his position on the defensive spectrum, on which a lot of value is wagered or his plate disciplne, which I see as unproven.  I think I'd say $35-40M is a risk I'd take to get a good RHB in the middle of a predominantly LH lineup.

Mayo (21 in Dec) is young and has been doing OK relative to his level while much younger.  We could see a big maturation in 2023, but I thought that about 2022 as well.  His K rate is way up in 2022 and he's getting by with a BABIP he can't maintain.  I think he has a good chance to be in the majors some time in 2024, but I'd factor for struggles with the ballpark and adjustment to ML pitching, since we've been seeing that.  I think I can't come up with a number that would not insult Mayo, but 10 years for $28-36M is the sort of risk I'd be comfortable with.  For him to sign such a contract, he'd have to be self-effacing enough to realize he might never make it for more than a year or 2.

Ortiz (Turned 24 in July) is not a spring chicken and on a tremendous heater currently.  IN a sense, we'd be buying at the highest his stock has ever been.  However, we don't know where he'll play in the bigs or if the O's have room for another infielder.  As a hitter, I'm most worried about his plate discipline and I think he could reduce his streakiness with a commitment to that.  Ballpark concerns persist for a RHB.  I also don't like the fact that a 10-year deal would mean just a couple of years of expected improvement before inevitable decline.  He might very well understand now how tenuous his ML future is, but the $18-22M I think it is worth risking to lock him up until he's 34 won't be an exciting number to him.

If you want to add 1 more name, I'd probably pay Jordan Westburg in the same range as Norby.  Development track relative to age is close.  Despite streakiness as a hitter, he's been extremely consistent in terms of total production for his time in the organization.  This year, his XBH pop has made up for a significant decrease in BABIP, which seems more replicatable than the other way around.  He'll also struggle with Camden Yards, but wouldn't it be great to find the needed RHBs in the minors rather than try to buy them via FA and possibly have to overpay.

 

Edited September 4, 2022 by Filmstudy

[Frobby]

I should have included “none of the above” as an option, since I don’t know how many people would have chosen that.  If you would have voted “none,” please respond here and say so.  

[MouncastleandMcCormick]

Grayson. Had to really think about Holliday. I think Norby might be somebody that will be undervalued at 2B, so able to be retained cheaper.

[Sports Guy]

GRod, Cowser, Mayo and Holliday

[emmett16]

On 9/3/2022 at 7:38 PM, CharmCityHokie said:

To wit, Ty Wigginton was an All Star so I'm not sure that factors in.

I didn't vote for Holliday, but I think Holliday may entertain it, because it basically drastically accelerates his timetable to the majors. Hypothetically, he'd make between $10-15mm just to play in the minors and would play out his options and he'd have to be in the bigs for good. Depends on what's important to him; money or being in the Show asap.

58MM isn’t a bad pay day before you turn 29.  Plenty of time for a second deal and if all falls right that second deal would be massive.  

[emmett16]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

GRod, Cowser, Mayo and Holliday

I’m not sold on Mayo yet.  I think next year could be huge for him, but he has some questions to answer for me.  This would be the year to get a steaL of a deal, but I think it’s risky.  Especially with his body size + some of the nagging injuries he’s had to date.   I’d like to see one solid dominating year form him before I pay him.