Should Santander be traded this offseason?

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

As much as I hate to say it, we should sell high on Santander.  It's risky though... If Stowers doesn't pan out, Hays doesn't bounce back, Vavra doesn't pan out, and Cowser struggles, we would then likely miss the playoffs.  

So what you're saying is that if the Orioles trade Santander and have four other key guys fail there's a chance they don't get to about 90 wins? Okay, yea, maybe.

[RZNJ]

45 minutes ago, terpoh said:

You have 4 guys who are either hovering at .300 or below .300 OBP in this lineup plus a rookie who you're asking to also play one of the most demanding defensive positions. I understand expecting guys to bounce back but saying "no holes" when those are the same guys who cannot hit this year, I dont get. I would say, after Santander I wouldnt have much confidence that we would be scoring a ton of runs until it got back to the top. We need some upgrades from outside of the organization offensively. 

I have always been a "Hays guy" but I am at the point now where I think we probably need to explore an upgrade in the OF for his spot. Maybe that Cowser, maybe its outside the org, but I think we need to seriously look at upgrading. I also think that Santander, if hes around, has moved more into the DH role and expecting him to be the every day RF would certainly hurt our OF defense. 

I'm advocating replacing 2 of those sub .300 players, Odor and Mateo.  If Hays doesn't bounce back, hopefully Cowser is ready to replace him.  If Hays does bounce back then you've got a good problem. 

I don't believe they are going to sign a star position player and if it's not a star then you get someone who is no guarantee to be better than Hays overall.

This organization has determined that their future is going to be predominantly fueled by a minor league pipeline.  Well, Henderson and Rutschman are here.  Joe Ortiz couldn't look any more ready than he does.  Westburg, Cowser, Norby, Stowers, and Vavra can contribute next year.  I think they are going to roll with what they have, offensively,  and I'm fine with that.  

[ScGO's]

Going into next season with an outfield of Stowers Mullins and hays and McKenna as the 4th and vavra as a spot start is plenty of depth, especially with cowser coming up possibly mid year.

If Elias decides to trade both Santander and Mullins, then I worry about the depth a little as McKenna probably slots into CF.

Mullins might be the piece that helps bring back pitching though 

 

[btdart20]

How much do you guess/think Santander gets in arbitration?  He received $3,150,000 heading into 2022 for his arb2 year.  $6.5-7M?  

[Ohfan67]

I think Santander will be on the 2023 opening day O's roster. He's the most dependable veteran hitter they have. If anything I think this season will reinforce the idea that the team performs better with a mix of veterans and young players.  

 

That's not necessarily my preference, it's just what I think the Orioles will do. 

[MurphDogg]

13 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

How much do you guess/think Santander gets in arbitration?  He received $3,150,000 heading into 2022 for his arb2 year.  $6.5-7M?  

If the old rule of 40/60/80 holds, it would be a little less than $5M. He had a lousy year last year, so it could be slightly higher, but this season is fairly comparable to his 2019 and 2020 seasons, so I wouldn't expect a 100 percent raise. I would expect $4.75-5.5M.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I think Santander will be on the 2023 opening day O's roster. He's the most dependable veteran hitter they have. If anything I think this season will reinforce the idea that the team performs better with a mix of veterans and young players.  

 

That's not necessarily my preference, it's just what I think the Orioles will do. 

He’s their most dependable vet hitter IF HEALTHY.

Thats a major if and one that is very risky to depend on again.  He also has been a poor OBP guy for most of his career.

Santander is 27, which is historically the peak age for players. 
 

Prior to this year, his best season in terms of games played was 110.  His highest OBP was 315 (most years sub 300).

Now, is he going to be healthy going forward and has he just gotten better later than most players do?  Sure, that’s absolutely possible.

The probable scenario is that he will go back to a 300ish OBP guy who is lucky to break 100 games played.

Thats just going with the odds. He obviously can buck those odds but do you want to rely on it?

Im fine with him being your regular DH and occasional LFer next year if he can’t fetch much in trade.  This is why I said I don’t care which 2 you trade.  There are varying degrees of what they are worth and what you want back.

The Orioles have a lot of options and ways they can go, so the players you do trade matters a little less because of there depth and resources they have on hand to go in different directions. It’s about the back up plan for who you replace them and what you get in return.  If none of them is worth much in the market, you keep them and hope things change.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Just Regular]

I had taken it as a given Stowers would be enough of a better glove than Santander that while waiting for Cowser the more common alignment would be LF/RF Stowers and DH Santander, but some of what I'm learning this month is....I dunno.

Maybe the answer is as simple as Stowers' forecast to hold a first string role respectably isn't as strong as we've often thought, and you just don't worry about putting someone better in the starting lineup.    If you are high on Stowers and low on Hays, maybe the Club sees how their complementary skills work in more of a platoon.    Warts and all, I believe Stowers could fill the DH position for 40 games probably better than Bemboom/Chirinos did their position the first quarter of this season, and I think those are the basic Cowser 2023 dynamics.    

Notwithstanding the pleasant surprise of 2022 Orioles pitching, Elias' spring observation the Bats have promise, and the Arms are short is I feel still basically correct, and I'd hope and expect most of the resources devoted to strengthening the 2023 OD roster go to the pitching staff.

Just like 1425 IP, about 6050 PA is more or less a fixed point.    Adley, RMC, Urias, Westburg, Mateo, Gunnar, Hays, Mullins, Santander and Cowser are ten guys who seem like 500+ PA contributors before say Stowers, Ortiz, Vavra and the backup catcher divvy up the last thousand.     Mayo and Norby will have more high minors reps than Gunnar did entering this year, so they won't need the supernova of '22 Gunnar to become part of the late 2023 mix either.

Cycle Mateo out for a proven star infielder like Correa or Xander if pitchers are just too scary to spend real $$$ on, sure, but the Benintendi-Nimmo player hits me like just chair shuffling with fancier chairs if they replace one of the current OF starters.

[MarCakes21]

If you combine this thread with the Free agent thread, you'd have to think current Santander is probably a Tier 3 player, maybe Tier 4 where Mancini is.  A lot of the Tier 3 guys are in the $15-20 mil/year value.

So say he's worth $10 mil in excess value, and we can trade him for value, and then sign Nimmo to a 4/$75 deal.  Would you do it?  I guess it depends what the return is, but it's a move you could make while your payroll is low.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

If the old rule of 40/60/80 holds, it would be a little less than $5M. He had a lousy year last year, so it could be slightly higher, but this season is fairly comparable to his 2019 and 2020 seasons, so I wouldn't expect a 100 percent raise. I would expect $4.75-5.5M.

That rule is pretty much out the window. Have a look at this Fangraphs article.  For a Super 2 in Arb 3, the rule of thumb is minimum salary plus (2.6 mm x fWAR). Santander is at 2.2 fWAR now, so call it 2.4 mm at the end of the season.  That formula works out to about $7 mm.  I think he might get slightly less than that, but I’d guess closer to $6.5 mm.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s their most dependable vet hitter IF HEALTHY.

Thats a major if and one that is very risky to depend on again.  He also has been a poor OBP guy for most of his career.

Santander is 27, which is historically the peak age for players. 
 

Prior to this year, his best season in terms of games played was 110.  His highest OBP was 315 (most years sub 300).

Now, is he going to be healthy going forward and has he just gotten better later than most players do?  Sure, that’s absolutely possible.

The probable scenario is that he will go back to a 300ish OBP guy who is lucky to break 100 games played.

Thats just going with the odds. He obviously can buck those odds but do you want to rely on it?

Im fine with him being your regular DH and occasional LFer next year if he can’t fetch much in trade.  This is why I said I don’t care which 2 you trade.  There are varying degrees of what they are worth and what you want back.

The Orioles have a lot of options and ways they can go, so the players you do trade matters a little less because of there depth and resources they have on hand to go in different directions. It’s about the back up plan for who you replace them and what you get in return.  If none of them is worth much in the market, you keep them and hope things change.

I hear you and don't disagree with anything you are saying. I just don't see the Orioles getting rid of Santander. I think they will want two or three hitters with solid track records. Santander and Mullins are really the only players like that on the roster. Santander definitely has his flaws, but I still think Santander will be on the opening day roster. 

[MurphDogg]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That rule is pretty much out the window. Have a look at this Fangraphs article.  For a Super 2 in Arb 3, the rule of thumb is minimum salary plus (2.6 mm x fWAR). Santander is at 2.2 fWAR now, so call it 2.4 mm at the end of the season.  That formula works out to about $7 mm.  I think he might get slightly less than that, but I’d guess closer to $6.5 mm.

Gotcha, thanks for the article. 100 percent bump still seems high to me, given that he is not really having a breakout year, he is having the type of season that you would expect based on his numbers in 2019 and 2020, albeit with more games played this season. But I may have not been paying enough to the arbitration market in recent years to know whether a 100 percent bump may be appropriate. 

It is worth nothing that Fangraphs does have this season as more of a breakout than Baseball Reference does. Fangraphs has him at 2.2 fWAR this season and 0.6 and 0.9 fWAR in 2019 and 2020 (Covid shortened), whereas Baseball Reference has him at 1.9 rWAR this season and 1.5 rWAR in 2019 and 1.6 rWAR in 2020.

Frankly, I was surprised he only got $3.15M this year, I thought he would get $3.5-3.75M but maybe they value the most recent season more than I thought they did, which would jibe with him getting a full 100 percent plus bump for next year.

Edited September 15, 2022 by MurphDogg

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I hear you and don't disagree with anything you are saying. I just don't see the Orioles getting rid of Santander. I think they will want two or three hitters with solid track records. Santander and Mullins are really the only players like that on the roster. Santander definitely has his flaws, but I still think Santander will be on the opening day roster. 

I think there will be teams after him and I’m guessing an offer Will be there that is worthy of dealing AS.

He is at peak value right now.

That said, an offer that is worth dealing him doesn’t necessarily mean it’s an offer that you accept.  By that I mean, maybe you get some good young prospects that are 2-3 years away.  Maybe that is something you should do but it may also be a situation where you say no because you want more immediate help and the immediate help you can acquire isn’t worth it to make the trade.

I can see that scenario playing out.

I’m 55/45 that he is traded this offseason.  A slight lean toward him being gone but don’t really have a lot of confidence in saying that.

I actually think the chances of Mullins being dealt are higher.

[Just Regular]

I agree Santander's fine year puts him in Sell High position this offseason, but I hope a basic difference where BAL > TB manifests is in its capacity to pay a decent player his Arb3 wage.

Stowers will probably be better at $$$/WAR, but I don't think he'll hit Glasnow-McClanahan-Baz, etc as well next year, and I'd like to beat the Rays in 2023.

Other side of this coin, Hays a Buy Low for other teams, but I trust our Economic Analysts well enough not to do something like that.    He isn't close yet to playing his way out of the league, and if he's this mediocre next April-May, maybe Cowser's promotion squeezes him instead of whoever the primary DH is.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Just Regular

[btdart20]

@Frobby @MurphDogg- Thanks for the article and thoughts.  My $6.5-7m range was just guessing/slotting Santander between what Winker-Hoskins got last year from an MLBTR list.  A 100+% bump does seem steep though.

I don't think that's a concern at this point in the budget, but it is a value add in the marketplace.  It would likely put him as the highest or second highest depending on how they handle Lyles.