Where should DL Hall begin the 2023 season?

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He may end up in the pen, but if I’m the O’s, he’s a starter for most of 2023, either in Norfolk or Baltimore.  Because of the missed 2020 season and various injuries, he really doesn’t have that much experience.   I’d like to see him get 20 starts this year, either in the majors, the minors, or both, before deciding what his future role will be.   

At the same time, the needs of the major league team may dictate what happens here.  This should be a contending team, and contending teams don’t leave talented pitchers sitting in AAA for their development if they have a need in the bullpen.  
 

The pen looks pretty strong without Hall.   Bautista, Perez, Tate, Baker, Krehbiel, Akin then probably Wells and maybe Baumann. Plus Gillaspie, Vespi and I think Holt will be working with Cano to make him a one or two inning reliever.    That is ten.  I am guessing that Watkins is in the the Norfolk rotation until needed but he could be a long reliever.

I don't think Elias takes Hall out of a starter role to put him in the pen if they have good arms in the pen without him.  Elias may just begin the year with him in the Norfolk rotation and promote him to the O's rotation when he is ready.

[Jagwar]

If Elias manages to acquire 1or 2 solid starters, I don't think he has a place in the starting rotation unless he has a lights out spring and one of the other candidates falters or gets traded. 

Candidates in no particular order including acquisitions. (Means will be a mid-season addition barring any setback)

• Starter 1
• Starter 2
• Bradish
• Kremer
• Wells
• GRod
• Voth
• Watkins

[Frobby]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Been in the system since 2017.  Has a total of 315 innings.

My point is that normally if a guy had been in the system 5 years, you might have expected to see 100 starts and 500-600 innings.  He’s never had a 100 inning season, pitched only 31.2 innings in 2021, and like all other minor leaguers, didn’t pitch in any competitive games in 2020.   So, he’s comparatively inexperienced for a guy who’s been around that long.  

Let’s be clear: I’m not saying he doesn’t have enough experience to succeed in the majors.   I’m just saying some of his deficiencies aren’t that surprising when you think about how 2020-21 went for him.  
 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My point is that normally if a guy had been in the system 5 years, you might have expected to see 100 starts and 500-600 innings.  He’s never had a 100 inning season, pitched only 31.2 innings in 2021, and like all other minor leaguers, didn’t pitch in any competitive games in 2020.   So, he’s comparatively inexperienced for a guy who’s been around that long.  

Let’s be clear: I’m not saying he doesn’t have enough experience to succeed in the majors.   I’m just saying some of his deficiencies aren’t that surprising when you think about how 2020-21 went for him.  
 

I didn’t post that stat at you. Just posted it.

I think people forget about that. His book is far from being finished and yet people want to paint him as not being a starter. 
 

He has Blake Snell type upside. A left handed AJ Burnett.  Maddening at times but dominant at other times. I’m not giving up on that potential any time soon.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

He may end up in the pen, but if I’m the O’s, he’s a starter for most of 2023, either in Norfolk or Baltimore.  Because of the missed 2020 season and various injuries, he really doesn’t have that much experience.   I’d like to see him get 20 starts this year, either in the majors, the minors, or both, before deciding what his future role will be.   

At the same time, the needs of the major league team may dictate what happens here.  This should be a contending team, and contending teams don’t leave talented pitchers sitting in AAA for their development if they have a need in the bullpen.  
 

The last paragraph is where I'm at with him going to the pen next year. Ultimately you'd like to see another 10-20 starts before making a decision on him long term, but if this team needs an impact reliever and Hall can provide that, I'd rather see him pitching in that role than in AAA on what should be a contending team next year.

[crowmst3k!]

I would put him in AAA and keep him starting.  If he doesn't stick at SP, then he can come up and contribute out of the pen. With his stuff, it would be foolish to throw in the towel on him being a starting pitcher. 

[sportsfan8703]

You start him in ST at the MLB camp and re-evaluate. That’s what we should do. My prediction is that our rotation will be strong enough that we don’t have to go into the season with him in the MLB rotation, and we start him in the AAA rotation. 
 

It’s a big year for Hall. I just don’t see the need to have him pitch 10 IP out of the pen in March/April. I’d rather have him him starting somewhere. 

[LookinUp]

First priority is to have him be one of my 5 starters coming out of spring training.

If his spring says he's not ready for that, I'd rather have him learning out of a major league bullpen and later extending him than extending him immediately against AAA hitters.

He's talented enough. Time to figure it out at the top level. He can do it.

[tabletop]

I would look to move him this offseason as part of a package for a starting pitcher.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Hall goes into spring training as a starter and then they see how things go. There are many factors that could go into where he starts the year to include, offseason acquisitions, spring performances, injuries to other starting candidates, and bullpen need.

So you go into spring with Hall preparing as a starter, but depending on how things go, I could see him anywhere from starting 2023 in the Orioles rotation, Orioles bullpen, or Norfolk rotation.

I'll be honest though, I think he's probably best out of the pen. I just never saw the consistency as a starter outside of a few brilliant starts in AAA.

I agree.. and I think he could be an Andrew Miller type guy out of the pen.. even in 2023.. but they will see what works best no doubt 

[Tony-OH]

52 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I agree.. and I think he could be an Andrew Miller type guy out of the pen.. even in 2023.. but they will see what works best no doubt 

Andrew Miller is an excellent comp for Hall. It's certainly still possible that he could end up more, but I think that's where they will get the best value from him.

[Just Regular]

I wonder if this year's deployment was any clue.    They threw him a bone with the start in Tampa before messaging "you're a reliever" to the Player.

Just on a higher workload scale though....see what the results are for six starts and when the mix is like 1 good, 2 meh, 3 clusters, you bring Grayson on in.

I think my wishes for Hall's April are about same as Stowers.    Let him play for a month, see what happens.    There's only one way to get MLB performance data.     I will love if Hall and Grayson start 2 of the first 5 games even if it is at like Dean Kremer's or Tyler Wells' expense because two good SP are acquired, but I think even 10-20% hope of that happening may be generous.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Andrew Miller is an excellent comp for Hall. It's certainly still possible that he could end up more, but I think that's where they will get the best value from him.

My hope would be more of a Josh Hader type. Miller didn't strikeout many guys early in his career. In fact, he was not above 10Ks/9 until his age 27 Season, 2012 in Boston.

In Hader's first 41+ innings in 2018 he had a Ks/9 of 12.84.

DL in AAA in 2022: IP: 76.2, K/P 14.67

DL in MLB 2022: IP: 13.2  K/9: 12.51

[tntoriole]

46 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

My hope would be more of a Josh Hader type. Miller didn't strikeout many guys early in his career. In fact, he was not above 10Ks/9 until his age 27 Season, 2012 in Boston.

In Hader's first 41+ innings in 2018 he had a Ks/9 of 12.84.

DL in AAA in 2022: IP: 76.2, K/P 14.67

DL in MLB 2022: IP: 13.2  K/9: 12.51

Of course we had the original Josh Hader type .. 

to get Bud Norris, we had to send Josh Hader … Mike Elias was there working with Luhnow .. and David Stearns too who 2 years later in Milwaukee traded for Hader again .. .. 

Zack Britton of course was an exclusive starter too his entire minor league career 2006-2011 and first two seasons with Os... until he wasn’t .. hopefully they can figure out what is best for DL sooner rather than later 

 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

My hope would be more of a Josh Hader type. Miller didn't strikeout many guys early in his career. In fact, he was not above 10Ks/9 until his age 27 Season, 2012 in Boston.

In Hader's first 41+ innings in 2018 he had a Ks/9 of 12.84.

DL in AAA in 2022: IP: 76.2, K/P 14.67

DL in MLB 2022: IP: 13.2  K/9: 12.51

I just meant as a high leverage left-handed reliever vs exactly the same type of career. Sure, we can hope for Hader and honestly, the talent is there to be similar, but Hader was already dominating at the major league level at 23.