2022 #5 Prospect Coby Mayo - 3B

[Tony-OH]

Coby Mayo
Pos: Third baseman
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 20
2022 Level: A+/AA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 35/50
Game Power: 40/60
Raw Power: 60/70
Run: 50/45
Defense: 30/45

Most Likely Future Role: Starting 3rd Baseman/Right fielder/1st Baseman
Ceiling: Starting third baseman, Occasional All-Star

2022 Highlights

What we know: An overslot ($1.7 million) 4th round selection in the COVID shortened five round 2020 draft, Mayo has put himself squarely on the prospect scene despite not putting up gaudy numbers in his first full season. The Orioles were aggressive with the 20-year old starting him out in Aberdeen (High-A) before moving him to AA (Bowie) by mid-season. Hitting in the tough Sally League in cavernous Ripken Stadium, Mayo still slashed .251/.326/.494/.821 for a 118 wRC+ despite being one of the younger hitters int the league. Those numbers look a lot better when you realize he started of the season slashing .234/.298/.460/.758 through his first 128 PAs before earning a promotion to Bowie after slashing .262/.350/.500/.850 with 9 doubles and seven home runs over his next 143 PAs.

He found AA pitchers to be a bit tougher and to be honest, there were nights where he struggled to compete. With the better assortment of offspeed pitches, his K rate skyrocketed to 34.5% and his walk rate lowered to 8.3%, both career worse. Of course it's wise to remember that the 20-year old was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League, a full four years youngers than the average age of pitchers in the league.

Mayo generates above average bat speed with an aggressive, violent hip rotation that enables him to create above average exit velocities. He was an ambush hitter at times this season, jumping on early count fastballs. He really never seemed to get comfortable at the plate all season, but part of that may have been the aggressiveness of the promotions.

He runs well for his size but he will slow down with age and will most likely end up a below average runner.

Defensively, Mayo continue to show the above average arm at 3B, but he still struggles with his footwork and frequently throws off the wrong foot or in between steps, particularly on the run where he does not show great body control. At 6-foot-5, it will be hard for him to stay at 3B unless he can improve his footwork but since he runs well and has a cannon, right field might be the first option if 3B does not work out. If neither works out, 1B is the fall back option.

What we don't know: Mayo held his own overall, but the question is will he come back and make adjustments to the AA offspeed pitches or was his rising K rate a harbinger of future struggles? Defensively he still does some things well at times at the hot corner, but will he need a position change in the next year or two?

What we think: The upside here is why Mayo still ranks over other more physically mature players who had good offensive seasons. While Mayo's floor is probably the lowest of the players listed in the 4-9 range on this list, he has the highest ceiling of any player not in the top three. We watched how much of a jump that Gunnar Henderson had this past season, and while Mayo most likely will not make the same jumps in plate discipline, he does carry that kind of upside, particularly in the power department.

Had Mayo gone to college, next year would have been his draft year so before you grade him too roughly on his mediocre stats in 2022, grade him on the curve that he deserves and let's see where he is at the end of next season. We still think Kris Bryant could be a potential comp for Mayo so of all the players in these rankings, he's the one we may have either underrated at his ranking, or underrated. We'll have a better idea after next season.

[forphase1]

I'm a bit surprised he's this high to be honest.  I know he moved up in competition from 2021 levels, I feel like he took a fairly big step backwards.  A .782 OPS isn't bad, but not nearly as good as the .963+ he had at all 3 stops in 2021.  His strikeout numbers increased significantly and his OPB dropped 100 points.  Based on my preseason expectations, he was one of the most disappointing prospects in 2022.  Maybe that was unfair of me, but I was really wanting to see improvement from him, instead he seemed to tread water at best.  Maybe your writeup will shine some light on this choice at #5, but there are some, like Ortiz, that I'd personally have ahead of him I think.  

[Sports Guy]

Surprised he isn’t 4 over Hall.  I’m guessing Tony heard some good stuff from scouts regarding Hall.  
 

I wonder if the Os look to move him to first base this year?  Third looks to be sewn up.

[Aristotelian]

I knew Tony would have Mayo here. I personally see too many red flags to justify this high but I get the ceiling argument. 

[bpilktree]

His numbers were probably not as good as some people would have hoped but him being about 4 years younger then the league average is a huge contributing factor in him still being so high imo.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

His numbers were probably not as good as some people would have hoped but him being about 4 years younger then the league average is a huge contributing factor in him still being so high imo.  

Exactly.  If you look at Henderson's 2021 numbers he had nearly a 30% strikeout rate in A and 10 strikeouts in 17 PA in Bowie.   Again, that doesn't mean Mayo will figure it out but the age Mayo was 2 years younger than Westburg in his first taste of AA.  It's a big factor in the ranking. 

[LookinUp]

Tough evaluation without inside information.

Pros:

1. Prodigious power
2. Age/Level
3. Great Arm (probably profiles as 3B, just not here most likely, fall back RF, then 1b)

Cons:

1. Production this year was just ok, ignoring age/level.
2. High K%, low BB%, particularly in AA.

So it's a tools rating, mostly power. He needs to improve the hit tool. You hope the player development people can round out his game. Age/level are on his side though, so I get the ranking. I'm just not sold yet.

[interloper]

I don't know if Mayo is going to end up having a defensive position other than 1B, and if that's the case, it's hard to justify a 1B this high who didn't really do anything all that impressive with the bat last season. Now that said, he held his own at AA as a 20-yr old, so I get it, and I hope he makes me look stupid this year! 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

I don't know if Mayo is going to end up having a defensive position other than 1B, and if that's the case, it's hard to justify a 1B this high who didn't really do anything all that impressive with the bat last season. Now that said, he held his own at AA as a 20-yr old, so I get it, and I hope he makes me look stupid this year! 

Are you sure you need any help?    
 

Sorry. I couldn’t resist.  

Edited November 16, 2022 by RZNJ

[btdart20]

The arm and power are definitely real.  It's really tough to gauge the age gap.  The risk factor is high though (like Kjerstad) and dependent on how his K% and HRs develop going forward.  2023 won't be a make it/break it type year, but hopefully it's a 'raise the roof' type of year for him!

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, bpilktree said:

His numbers were probably not as good as some people would have hoped but him being about 4 years younger then the league average is a huge contributing factor in him still being so high imo.  

That really plays into it pretty high. I'm not sure some people realize how impressive it is to be at the levels he was at at his age. In each level, his wRC+, which adjusts for leagues was over the league average while being well below the average age for the level.

He also has some of the best exit velocities in the system. He's a big boy who is going to fill out and I think you are going to see his power explode next year and the year after.

I honestly could have put him at #4.

[Aglets]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That really plays into it pretty high. I'm not sure some people realize how impressive it is to be at the levels he was at at his age. In each level, his wRC+, which adjusts for leagues was over the league average while being well below the average age for the level.

He also has some of the best exit velocities in the system. He's a big boy who is going to fill out and I think you are going to see his power explode next year and the year after.

I honestly could have put him at #4.

With Gunnar already on the team, and with Ortiz and Westburg close behind, where do you think Mayo is most likely to fit onto the eventual roster?  Are we likely to package one of these guys in a trade in your opinion?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aglets said:

With Gunnar already on the team, and with Ortiz and Westburg close behind, where do you think Mayo is most likely to fit onto the eventual roster?  Are we likely to package one of these guys in a trade in your opinion?

Does he realistically project to 3B at this stage?

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does he realistically project to 3B at this stage?

That's my big question about Mayo too.  Arm strength is there.  But how did everything else progress?

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Aglets said:

With Gunnar already on the team, and with Ortiz and Westburg close behind, where do you think Mayo is most likely to fit onto the eventual roster?  Are we likely to package one of these guys in a trade in your opinion?

Mayo probably ends up at 1B if he stays in this organization, but he could be a key part of a deal as well.