Orioles interested in Taillon per Melewski

[Roll Tide]

25 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm fairly confident Taillon can be had for three years. If he pushes for a fourth year I'd pass, but he's a perfectly serviceable above average MLB SP, which is better than who/what we have now. 

3 years with a option based on performance? Averaging 165 innings over years 1-3? An era under 4.40? A certain  WHIP score? An average WAR of 1.5+? 

[jamalshw]

I would have been excited for Taillon if we didn't already sign Gibson, but as we did, Taillon would likely signal the end of us acquiring more SP and the duo of Taillon and Gibson would be a bit underwhelming to me. 

Taillon is a solid pitcher, basically a #3 whereas Gibson is a #5. Adding Taillon would mean the Orioles would NEED Rodriguez to be what we expect him to be right away and at least one of that Kremer and/or Bradish more or less repeats what we saw last year (the whole year for Kremer and the second half for Bradish). IF those things happen, it's a solid rotation (particularly given we'd have guys like Wells and Voth in the pen for depth and Hall either in the pen or at AAA), but I would still prefer we shoot a bit higher. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Gibson just got 10 million for putting up a whopping 81 ERA +. 

I am not exactly a big fan of that deal either.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I would have been excited for Taillon if we didn't already sign Gibson, but as we did, Taillon would likely signal the end of us acquiring more SP and the duo of Taillon and Gibson would be a bit underwhelming to me. 

Taillon is a solid pitcher, basically a #3 whereas Gibson is a #5. Adding Taillon would mean the Orioles would NEED Rodriguez to be what we expect him to be right away and at least one of that Kremer and/or Bradish more or less repeats what we saw last year (the whole year for Kremer and the second half for Bradish). IF those things happen, it's a solid rotation (particularly given we'd have guys like Wells and Voth in the pen for depth and Hall either in the pen or at AAA), but I would still prefer we shoot a bit higher. 

Everything you state, I agree with! The question with a Taillon signing is how close does this get us to the playoffs?

I mean we have to face the reality that all of the playoff teams from last year as things stand (except for maybe the Yankees who will add) are currently better than us. And Texas is making serious improvements. Like we have to leapfrog somebody to get there. Does Taillon head a rotation to do that?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

28 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I would have been excited for Taillon if we didn't already sign Gibson, but as we did, Taillon would likely signal the end of us acquiring more SP and the duo of Taillon and Gibson would be a bit underwhelming to me. 

Taillon is a solid pitcher, basically a #3 whereas Gibson is a #5. Adding Taillon would mean the Orioles would NEED Rodriguez to be what we expect him to be right away and at least one of that Kremer and/or Bradish more or less repeats what we saw last year (the whole year for Kremer and the second half for Bradish). IF those things happen, it's a solid rotation (particularly given we'd have guys like Wells and Voth in the pen for depth and Hall either in the pen or at AAA), but I would still prefer we shoot a bit higher. 

Exactly. Taillon would be perfectly fine in the Gibson spot if someone who is actually above average was in the Taillon spot so that you end up with one above average guy and one average guy instead of one average guy and one below average guy.

[Moose Milligan]

29 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I am not exactly a big fan of that deal either.

Really? Had no idea. 
 

Taillon is a bit underwhelming mixed with Gibson, I agree. 

[bpilktree]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s look into him:

K rate: 7.66 (went down about a full K in a down run environment)

FIP:  3.94 (ERA was 3.91)

xERA: 4.20

Swingstr%- 17.3% (was over 20% in 2021)

Str%- 65.5%
 
Statcast numbers are decent overall.

So, in 2022 the biggest thing that jumps out is the drop in K rate and the drop in missed bats.  That said, 2021 represented his high in Ks and swingstr%. That would be more of an outlier than a predictor at this point.

He has had TJ surgery twice but outside of 2019-2020, he has shown to be pretty durable.

He won’t walk batters. Career ERA is under 4.

He’s fine but he can’t be your best add this offseason imo. If you went Taillon and Lopez or went big with Rodon or something like that, so be it but hard to believe that’s happening and unless you are going with a 6 man rotation or Bradish or Kremer are being dealt, you aren’t adding 3 FA starters.

 

His walk rate last year also dropped from 2.7 to 1.6 per 9/ip. So that would make he went to getting soft contact early in the and away from nibbling trying to strike out guys but also walking more.   That seemed to be the same thing we saw with Kremer.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Really? Had no idea. 

True story, no fibbing 

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Taillon is a bit underwhelming mixed with Gibson, I agree. 

The underwhelmingest.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

He's average, so I guess that's a step up from Gibson at least.

Just to be clear about one thing, the average starter last year had an ERA+ of 97.   Relievers averaged 103.   So Taillon at 100 is actually slightly above average for a starter.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just to be clear about one thing, the average starter last year had an ERA+ of 97.   Relievers averaged 103.   So Taillon at 100 is actually slightly above average for a starter.  

Thanks for the clarification, but I'm not really going to split too many hairs about whether he is exactly average or 2.9% above average. 

But I will stop saying that he is "exactly average."

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Thanks for the clarification, but I'm not really going to split too many hairs about whether he is exactly average or 2.9% above average. 

But I will stop saying that he is "exactly average."

Yeah, I just wanted to put that out there. It’s not a huge difference.  

[SpOkane]

Cross another one off the list??

 

Cubs, Jameson Taillon Nearing Deal - MLB Trade Rumors

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, SpOkane said:

Cross another one off the list??

 

Cubs, Jameson Taillon Nearing Deal - MLB Trade Rumors

I guess Taillon wasn't interested in the Orioles per Taillon 

[jrobb21613]

Done deal.  https://www.mlb.com/news/jameson-taillon-cubs-deal?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share

[forphase1]

4 years, 68 million.  Wonder if we matched that or if we weren't willing to go that long and that high.  17M is a bit steep IMO, but we need to do SOMETHING and our options are slowly running out.