Do you expect Santander to hit better than Hays in 2023?

[Frobby]

To date, Anthony Santander and Austin have had pretty similar careers.  Santander is 28, Hays is 27.   Both missed a lot of times with injuries in the early parts of their careers.  Both had injuries in the first part of 2021, stayed pretty healthy in the second half of that year, and stayed off the IL in 2022.   Both have a career OPS+ of 104.   Both have produced 4.4 oWAR in their careers, though Santander has had 411 more PA than Hays.   

I think, though, that most posters consider Santander the superior hitter.  And I don’t know that they would have said that at the end of 2021, or even halfway though 2022.  It’s pretty much all based on Santander having a pretty good second half of 2022, while Hays struggled over that period.  

Gun to my head, I’d probably pick Santander to be the better hitter in 2023, but it’s not that obvious a call.  It certainly wouldn’t shock me if it’s the other way around.  After all, Hays is just getting to the experience level Santander was at last year, being a year younger and with 400+ fewer PA under his belt.   

[CharmCityHokie]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To date, Anthony Santander and Austin have had pretty similar careers.  Santander is 28, Hays is 27.   Both missed a lot of times with injuries in the early parts of their careers.  Both had injuries in the first part of 2021, stayed pretty healthy in the second half of that year, and stayed off the IL in 2022.   Both have a career OPS+ of 104.   Both have produced 4.4 oWAR in their careers, though Santander has had 411 more PA than Hays.   

I think, though, that most posters consider Santander the superior hitter.  And I don’t know that they would have said that at the end of 2021, or even halfway though 2022.  It’s pretty much all based on Santander having a pretty good second half of 2022, while Hays struggled over that period.  

Gun to my head, I’d probably pick Santander to be the better hitter in 2023, but it’s not that obvious a call.  It certainly wouldn’t shock me if it’s the other way around.  After all, Hays is just getting to the experience level Santander was at last year, being a year younger and with 400+ fewer PA under his belt.   

Thanks for the comps, that's really interesting how similar they match up over the course of the careers. 

I think Hays is the superior contact hitter, while Santander has more natural power. If I had to pick who I think will have a better OPS+ at the end of the '23 season I probably would go with Santander. The reason I'd pick Santander is I never trust Hays' health; I realize he'll play through anything, but that can be less a feature and more of a bug in an everyday lineup. He also gets so amped up that he starts swinging for the fences and as a righty hitter he's now certainly at a disadvantage at home. I also think Santander had lingering effects from his '21 ankle injury early in '22, which could be seen in his poor defense and baserunning. If his ankle is healthier, and he did look better in the second half, I think he could have a good season. He also has the advantage of being a switch hitter and I think is starting to gain more respect from pitchers due to his power output, and therefore will be more carefully pitched to increasing his OBP. 

That's all just conjecture and guessing, but like I said before, it's interesting how close their career numbers are, thanks for running those. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by CharmCityHokie

[wildcard]

Tell me who is healthier in 2023 and I can make a guess.

[Pickles]

If Santander maintains his improved discipline going forward, I'd probably take him.

Wildcard makes an excellent point: Health will probably be a determing factor.

But Frobby's OP makes some good points about recency bias.  I mean we have prominent posters claiming Hays is a "fourth outfielder at best."  That's laughable.

[oriole]

I’ll take Hays. I think he probably played injured in the second half and that’s what ultimately made such a steep drop off so assuming he can stay healthy, I think he’s got more upside. He can be more helpful on the bases and in the field but it’s no doubt that Santander has the edge on him regarding power. I also have my doubts that Santander will keep up his walk rate. 
 

I dunno though, they’re very evenly matched I think overall. I think I have some bias towards Hays because he was drafted by the O’s and there’s something about a player that doesn’t have to adjust his batting gloves every 2 seconds that I like. I do like a switch hitter though…has me second guessing myself and I haven’t even pressed Submit Reply yet.

[Aristotelian]

Very close, career OPS is within about 20 points of each other, but Santander trend is in better direction. I would go with Santander but would not bet my life savings on it.

[btdart20]

If you run a poll of who has more trade value, I bet Santander wins in a landslide.  

If we are really not sure who’s the better hitter, then why are we concerned about trading one of them?  

Anything is possible but there’s a lot of blue on the statcast page for Hays.  Maybe things were health-related (but I don’t really buy it completely) and he could bounce back.  Can he convert some of those pop ups to line drives?

Santander has a solid case to be around 2022 level of production.  Some Babip help could offset regression elsewhere.  But another 30+ HR year is doable. 

 

 

[ChuckS]

Santander has better at bats, so you gotta give him the edge. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Santander has better at bats, so you gotta give him the edge. 

Well, he did last year, anyway.  Hopefully Hays can improve in 2023 the way Santander did in 2022.   It’s not easy. 

[eddie83]

I would say Santander due to better walk rate and the idea he may be a DH more this year. 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

If you run a poll of who has more trade value, I bet Santander wins in a landslide.  

I’d be voting the other way.  My question was only about hitting, but Hays is the better defender and has another year of team control, and is cheaper.  Baseball Trade Values has it Hays $21.6 mm, Santander $8.6 mm.   That’s probably exaggerated but I do think Hays should be higher.  

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Pickles said:

If Santander maintains his improved discipline going forward, I'd probably take him.

Wildcard makes an excellent point: Health will probably be a determing factor.

But Frobby's OP makes some good points about recency bias.  I mean we have prominent posters claiming Hays is a "fourth outfielder at best."  That's laughable.

Or you are lying about their stances, as you tend to do.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Or you are lying about their stances, as you tend to do.

I don't think he meant you Sport Guy, he said prominent posters.

[Since1984]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Or you are lying about their stances, as you tend to do.

I have read of Hay’s being platooned, or a 4th OF at best, on this board during the 2022 season. The merit only sticks if another prospect steps up during injury.

HBP was a factor to end the year, but I have full confidence his best years are about come (or some brawls happen, or both)

[Spy Fox]

Something interesting about Santander's season is that he had a big power binge in September/October, but was his lowest OPS month because of a .177 AVG. 10 HRs after Sep 1 but a .704 OPS compared to his season OPS of .773. He did have a higher OPS in the second half than the first, but that was largely because he was on fire both with power and average right after the break— .417 AVG and 4 HRs in the 9 July games after the break. 

I would pick Santander. Hays was basically the best hitter on the team in the first half last year, and a borderline All Star candidate, so I think a breakout from him is still possible. But I like how much Santander improved his walk % last year. 8.5% compared to 5.3% the year before. Hays is at 5.7% for his career. Better power history, and now a better patience history, makes me think Santander is the better bet.