Ryan Mountcastle 2023

[Il BuonO]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd feel the same, since lineup order is pretty inconsequential.

Tango says hello.

[interloper]

Not sure if this was mentioned, but it looked to me like he ditched the exaggerated lean-back in his stance that he does prior to getting set and standing upright. Looks like he simplified it to where he's just upright from the get-go. If so, I like it. The less movement up there the better IMO. We'll see if it's something he sticks with. 

[Frobby]

Two homers and a double tonight, 5 RBI.  His slash line is .256/.275/.504, 8 HR, 26 RBI.   It tends to be feast or famine with RMC, so let’s enjoy what hopefully will be the start of a feast.  

[yark14]

On 5/1/2023 at 9:29 AM, interloper said:

Not sure if this was mentioned, but it looked to me like he ditched the exaggerated lean-back in his stance that he does prior to getting set and standing upright. Looks like he simplified it to where he's just upright from the get-go. If so, I like it. The less movement up there the better IMO. We'll see if it's something he sticks with. 

He still seems to lean back, but perhaps not as much.  To me, you can tell how dialed in he is by looking at his hands.  When he is locked in he has very relaxed hands....when he is pressing he white-knuckles the bat.

[Billy F-Face3]

Mountcastle and Rutschman players of the game. 

I will say this about Mountcastle... He is who he is. And sometimes, that can be a very very good thing for this team. He is an aggressive hitter and a good fielder at 1st Base. 

How many times have we seen Orioles batters get screwed over by a bad call from an umpire when they took a pitch? With Mountcastle, you know he's not going to put it in the hands of the unpire. He's going to play to the best of his ability and not let someone else determine the outcome. Sometimes he'll go down swinging. And sometimes he might have a multiple home run games. But he's not going to be screwed over by an umpire with a bad eye.

And he's a good teammate who really helps out his fielders. 

I'm happy with ScoopCastle aka Mounty on the team. 

[byrdz]

Mouncastle starting a hot streak is what this team is going to need as they head into tougher games. Happy to see it! 

[interloper]

17 hours ago, yark14 said:

He still seems to lean back, but perhaps not as much.  To me, you can tell how dialed in he is by looking at his hands.  When he is locked in he has very relaxed hands....when he is pressing he white-knuckles the bat.

Yeah seems like he's still doing it on occasion so I guess that theory is out the window haha 

[e16bball]

Mountcastle remains the most puzzling thing out there, as far as I’m concerned. We were told he was the “unluckiest” guy going last year, based on his EVs and expected stats. That feels like the sort of thing that’s bound to reverse itself, or at least normalize, which had a lot of us looking toward this season as a major breakout campaign. 

And yet…he’s instead been somehow even more “unlucky”?

He has a .390 xWOBA, which ties him with a guy named Mike Trout for 22nd in MLB among regulars. The average EV is again huge (94th percentile), and so are the barrel rates (92nd) and the other expected numbers (xBA is 93rd and xSLG is 97th). Despite the lofty “expected” metrics, his actual production continues to be pedestrian. His .320 wOBA so far this year is almost identical to the .316 mark he posted last season. 

So what gives? I’ll be honest, I don’t know, as I don’t really know much about the inputs and data underlying xWOBA and similar stats. But I do think I’ve managed to find a potential comp, in the sense of a player who has — like Mountcastle — consistently underperformed his expected metrics by a substantial amount.

Marcell Ozuna

Since a massive juggernaut performance in the shortened 2020 season, Marcell Ozuna has struggled over the last 3 years. He has a combined .291 wOBA in that span, good for approximately an 82 wRC+. 

The interesting thing, however, is that despite being a well-below-average hitter, he has posted a still-good xWOBA in each of those seasons (.347, .335, .347). In fact, his combined xWOBA for those seasons is approximately .340, which is some 49 points (and 17%) higher than his actual wOBA number. His EVs have dipped some from that monster 2020 season, but he’s still rated high in the Barrel rate and especially the Max EV department. 

I will admit, I’m not particularly familiar with Marcell Ozuna. But along with late career Carlos Santana (2020-2022) he’s just about the only guy I’m seeing in recent years who has strung together an extended period of vastly underperforming his expected metrics in the way that Mountcastle has. For those more in the know, do these guys have any similarities or common traits that might explain why the expected stats are overestimating? Or do we really just chalk it up to an extended, consistent run of bad karma/poor fortune for both guys?

[Spy Fox]

Heads up baserunning by Mountcastle to adjust inside the baseline and cut off Chapman's angle, ultimately blocking the throw. You could see him make the choice in the replay, and I don't think all baserunners would have the presence to do that. 

O'Hearn and Bautista get top billing, and it wasn't a good offensive day for Mountcastle, but he helped get the big win with that play. 

[Frobby]

Mountcastle continues to have the 4th biggest wOBA/xwOBA differential, at .307/.366.   From Fangraphs:

“Ryan Mountcastle also made last month’s list, but both his actual wOBA and xwOBA have fallen since. Now both marks are around what he posted last year. Is it a home park thing, which became much more pitcher friendly last year? Well this year, he has posted a higher home wOBA than away. His home park could certainly still be hampering his wOBA there, but doesn’t explain his struggles on the road. A career low BABIP is hurting, but with a 44.1% FB%, you can’t really expect a league average mark. Just looking at his healthy maxEV and elite Barrel%, I would expect his HR/FB rate to be higher, which is likely what Statcast is calculating as well. He definitely hasn’t been bad enough that he would come at a major discount in a trade, but owners should probably expect better results the rest of the way.”

[waroriole]

Maybe expected outcome stats like this are missing a key component. Or maybe Mountcastle is just the most unlucky player that ever existed. I tend to think it’s the first one, as evidenced by his career .309 OBP, which has got worse every year. I can’t understand how he’s managed to play every game. 

[bpilktree]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mountcastle continues to have the 4th biggest wOBA/xwOBA differential, at .307/.366.   From Fangraphs:

“Ryan Mountcastle also made last month’s list, but both his actual wOBA and xwOBA have fallen since. Now both marks are around what he posted last year. Is it a home park thing, which became much more pitcher friendly last year? Well this year, he has posted a higher home wOBA than away. His home park could certainly still be hampering his wOBA there, but doesn’t explain his struggles on the road. A career low BABIP is hurting, but with a 44.1% FB%, you can’t really expect a league average mark. Just looking at his healthy maxEV and elite Barrel%, I would expect his HR/FB rate to be higher, which is likely what Statcast is calculating as well. He definitely hasn’t been bad enough that he would come at a major discount in a trade, but owners should probably expect better results the rest of the way.”

This is interesting take that owners should expect better but he currently ranks 41st in my league offensively in all of baseball.  His numbers in most fantasy leagues say he is better then he actually is playing.  Granted this one doesn’t count OBP but still he has solid numbers in runs, homers, RBI and total bases so in fantasy baseball he is a guy producing.  

[Just Regular]

Two things I've learned this year are xwOBA is agnostic on direction, and despite strong all fields batting talent, Ryan Mountcastle is as unskilled at pulling the ball as he is at swing decisions.     I am past expecting this to close completely, maybe even mostly.

The thing I am watching for him to help himself out is if he can get better at harvesting pull side pop now that he is a couple thousand PA along.

It doesn't matter how many RBI's he has - at Memorial Day I think he is in play as a possible in season job loss scenario.    If Elias can make him a "top of the deck" trade piece in July, I don't think he'd hesitate for an instant.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

This is interesting take that owners should expect better but he currently ranks 41st in my league offensively in all of baseball.  His numbers in most fantasy leagues say he is better then he actually is playing.  Granted this one doesn’t count OBP but still he has solid numbers in runs, homers, RBI and total bases so in fantasy baseball he is a guy producing.  

No point confusing fantasy baseball with real baseball.   In real life, OBP is extremely important.