Orioles Acquire LHP Cole Irvin from the A's for Darrel Hernaiz

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

They just turned a 5th rounder into a cost controlled average ML starter and another arm. 

When you put it like this, it really sells the trade even more. Hernaiz, to put it bluntly, is an unusable player in our system. Barring some cataclysmic event, he is never going to leapfrog the infield prospects in front of him. 

The best trades are trading a player who you can't use for a player who you absolutely can use. And a bonus recent draft pick college pitcher? Sure. 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

When you put it like this, it really sells the trade even more. Hernaiz, to put it bluntly, is an unusable player in our system. Barring some cataclysmic event, he is never going to leapfrog the infield prospects in front of him. 

The best trades are trading a player who you can't use for a player who you absolutely can use. And a bonus recent draft pick college pitcher? Sure. 

Hernaiz wouldn't be unusable he he blew up in AA this year like Norby did last year.   They'd either find a spot for him or he might have more value than now.   I think the Orioles are saying they don't expect him to blow up.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Dubroff said on 105.7 today that he would be significantly limited. He didn’t clarify by giving an inning count. So who knows…..I think anywhere near 150 is extremely optimistic. 

He will be, if healthy, in the 120-140 range.

Dubroff is about as reliable as LaCanfora.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[waroriole]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hernaiz wouldn't be unusable he he blew up in AA this year like Norby did last year.   They'd either find a spot for him or he might have more value than now.   I think the Orioles are saying they don't expect him to blow up.

This. I keep seeing takes that Hernaiz is low value to us because there are a lot of IF in our minor league system. If the Orioles still think there’s more improvement from him, you hold on to him until he reaches that level.
 

Of course, it could just be this was the best deal they could swing for a SP. 

[emmett16]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

I see Irvin as the O's 7th best starter to begin the season.    Gibson, Kremer, Bradish, Grayson, Wells and Voth are all better IMO.   Camden Yards is not the Coliseum where Irvin did his best pitching in a large park.   And the 2021-22 AL West didn't have nearly as many good teams as he would see in the 2023 AL East.   Holt will help Irvin but that does not mean he will be better than the 6 starters ahead of him.

I am not saying this is a bad trade.  It offers pitching depth in case of injury and non performance.  Gibson, Kremer and Bradish all project for about 30 starts.   Grayson and Wells don't.  But Voth, Means and Hall  can fill those starts later in the season.  And those three are all better than Irvin.

I can see Holt making adjustment to Irvin's pitches and pitch mix in ST.  Irvin could beginning the season in AAA (he has an option) or as a long man in the pen.   How he adjusts will tell how many innings he gets in the majors IMO.

The Astros are hands down best team on MLB.  Mariners aren’t too shabby.  Texas was unlucky last year.  I think the AL West is about the same if not better.  

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

This. I keep seeing takes that Hernaiz is low value to us because there are a lot of IF in our minor league system. If the Orioles still think there’s more improvement from him, you hold on to him until he reaches that level.
 

Of course, it could just be this was the best deal they could swing for a SP. 

I think it's the highest value/risk averse move they could've made for an established, controllable SP. Elias' whole approach to the rebuild has been about adding long term value and limiting risk. I think the draft pattern of prioritizing batters over pitchers speaks to this.

Just for fun let's consider these trade options:

Corbin Burnes for Holliday, Cowser, Wells

Jesus Luzardo for Westburg, Kremer

Cole Irvin for Danell Hernaiz

Eric Lauer for Joey Ortiz

Adrian Houser for Mateo

Without knowing if these are even in the right ballpark, which trade would you most like to see the Orioles make? I'd have a hard time parting with the controllable high end talent it'd take to get a guy like Burnes for two years or giving up the major league contributors to get middling options like Houser. Irvin for Hernaiz just feels like it's the right value/risk addition.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Dubroff said on 105.7 today that he would be significantly limited. He didn’t clarify by giving an inning count. So who knows…..I think anywhere near 150 is extremely optimistic. 

I don’t think Dubroff knows anything more than we do.

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

Grayson will probably have the best stuff on any starter in camp.

 The pen has Bautista, Perez, Tate, Baker, Givens, Voth, Akin and a competition between Politi, Krehbiel and Irvin for the last spot.  Wells is probably needed more in the rotation.

Irvin pitched away from the Coliseum to an ERA of 5.26.  He is not pitching in the Coliseum any more.   Voth ERA was 3.04.

It doesn't matter how many innings Irvin can pitch if he can't pitch them well.

You can't possibly think this is true, can you? The Orioles did not trade away Hernaiz for a guy who will battle for the last spot in the bullpen. He's in the rotation to start the year barring an injury. Barring Injury, the rotation will include Gibson, Irvin, Kremer, Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez. Wells and Voth will go to the pen.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Hernaiz wouldn't be unusable he he blew up in AA this year like Norby did last year.   They'd either find a spot for him or he might have more value than now.   I think the Orioles are saying they don't expect him to blow up.

I like Hernaiz.  Predicting how prospects will do is a matter of making educated guesses.   They’re often wrong.  I doubt Hernaiz is ever a major league starter, but I won’t say it’s impossible.  We can afford to take the gamble that he turns out to be better than expected because of the infield depth in our system.   This was a case of dealing from our depth to acquire a player in an area where we lack depth.   It’s a smart move even if Hernaiz exceeds expectations and Irvin doesn’t.  

[Frobby]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

You can't possibly think this is true, can you? The Orioles did not trade away Hernaiz for a guy who battle for the last spot in the bullpen. He's in the rotation to start the year barring an injury. Barring Injury, the rotation will include Gibson, Irvin, Kremer, Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez. Wells and Voth will go to the pen.

I agree that’s the most likely scenario.  I wouldn’t call it a lock, but that’s my expectation.  

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

I agree that’s the most likely scenario.  I wouldn’t call it a lock, but that’s my expectation.  

Grayson is the only one that is not a lock in my opinion and only if the Orioles decide to manage his innings in a way that precludes him from starting initially. I can't see a scenario barring injury or some kind of total loss in stuff this spring that would stop any of Gibson, Irvin, Kremer and Bradish from starting in the rotation. 

Wells' stuff plays up in the pen and although he can start, he may be a better value in the pen. Voth proved to be a nice swingman, 5th starter type but his inability to go deep into games very often makes him better as a long guy in the pen and swing starter. 

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You can't possibly think this is true, can you? The Orioles did not trade away Hernaiz for a guy who battle for the last spot in the bullpen. He's in the rotation to start the year barring an injury. Barring Injury, the rotation will include Gibson, Irvin, Kremer, Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez. Wells and Voth will go to the pen.

Might happen for a month or two until Elias gets tired of Irvin getting beat up.

Edited January 27, 2023 by wildcard

[ThisIsBirdland]

They'll probably end up rolling their rotation out in the opposite order than the fans would want to see them:

Gibson

Irvin

Kremer

Bradish

Grayson

[AnythingO's]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Might happen for a month or two until Elias gets tired of Irvin getting beat up.

OMG WC, while I love your optimism and the vigor with which you defend your opinions, you are out on the same island as your "play Adley 162 because he is young" stance. What happened to Holt's magic dust to turn fodder (Voth i.e.) into something? You even believe Holt will help Gibson be respectable. This guy will be in the starting 5 and will benefit from the new Oriole Way of pitching. Beyond Gibson, Irvin is the best bet to get to 150 inn out of your starting 7 guys.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Might happen for a month or two until Elias gets tired of Irvin getting beat up.

BTW, I know you are focused on his bad away numbers, but he would have allowed 21 home runs Camden Yards vs 23 in Oakland. 

Also, he seems to pitch to the scoreboard a bit. When he's up a bunch, he tends to allow more runs but he ended up 4-0 in those games. 

Overall, he's solid #4 starter that should keep the team in more games than not. 

Barring an injury, he's in the rotation and would need to be really bad to be replaced by May.