Top 100 Prospect tracker on MLB.com

[bluedog]

Hmm -- I haven't seen enough of Lawler to know how much better he is as a prospect than Cowser.

What do you think?

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Hmm -- I haven't seen enough of Lawler to know how much better he is as a prospect than Cowser.

What do you think?

Yes, he is. He’s top 10 for a reason.

Cowser was a very good pick. Lawlar was just a better pick.

[SpOkane]

7 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Hmm -- I haven't seen enough of Lawler to know how much better he is as a prospect than Cowser.

What do you think?

I am no scout, but Lawlar is 9 and Holliday is 10 on MLB Pipeline with 60 grades. So, they think he is similar to Holliday in potential quality/impact. Cowser is ranked 35 with a 55 grade, a step below.

Fangraphs has Lawlar with at 15 with a 55 grade and Cowser is unranked and graded at 45. So, they are down on him.

I think Lawlar is better, but at draft time I was a coin flip between Lawlar and Watson. Cowser was about 5th on my preference at that spot with who remained. I think Cowser was a tolerable pick and hope for the best.

[Ridgway22]

This is one of the times I wish there was video of the decision making process we could review some day. I'd love to know what they saw / knew / thought about Lawler to pass over him. Or was it they really were super wake-and-bake high on Cowser, and if so, why?

[bluedog]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, he is. He’s top 10 for a reason.

Cowser was a very good pick. Lawlar was just a better pick.

Not arguing against Lawler being better. Wondering what you've seen in him that makes him so. I could go do the research myself, but I know you've already done it

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Not arguing against Lawler being better. Wondering what you've seen in him that makes him so. I could go do the research myself, but I know you've already done it

Sure, ask the draft expert who he preferred

1. Christian Colon over Machado

2. Bobby Witt Jr over Rutschmann

3. Max Meyer/Zac Veen (2 others way to hedge your bets) over Kjerstad

4. Jordan Lawlar over Cowser

5. Druw Jones over Holliday

Hey!  He’s been waiting to get one right so he can crow about it!     Stay tuned.

Edited April 19, 2023 by RZNJ

[bluedog]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Sure, ask the draft expert who preferred

1. Christian Colon over Machado

2. Bobby Witt Jr over Rutschmann

3. Max Meyer/Zac Veen (2 others way to hedge your bets) over Kjerstad

4. Jordan Lawlar over Cowse

5. Druw Jones over Hollida

Hey!  He’s been waiting to get one right so he can crow about it!     Stay tuned.

So was this necessary? I actually wanted to hear what SG had to say.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, bluedog said:

So was this necessary? I actually wanted to hear what SG had to say.

This shouldn’t stop him from responding to you.  Necessary?  Yes.

Don’t forget.  They liked Cowser and saved money.  They used that to get Rhodes and Willems which everyone thought was awful use of the savings.

Edited April 19, 2023 by RZNJ

[bluedog]

29 minutes ago, Ridgway22 said:

This is one of the times I wish there was video of the decision making process we could review some day. I'd love to know what they saw / knew / thought about Lawler to pass over him. Or was it they really were super wake-and-bake high on Cowser, and if so, why?

This is a great post. Totally agree.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, bluedog said:

Good catch.

Looks like 3 of the guys ahead of Holliday will be graduated by mid-season as well. He may have a legit shot at #1.

On last week’s podcast, the hosts said as much. Not that he was the favorite, but that he would be in the discussion. 

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, bluedog said:

So was this necessary? I actually wanted to hear what SG had to say.

It's a little known secret (beyond the OH draft board) that SG was a Lawlar fan.  It's also a little known secret (beyond OH in general) that SG and RZNJ have a mutual level of affection for each other.  And the fact that these are neither little known nor a secret provides a great check/balance on the OH board.  

The main point is the MLB drafts are crap shoots to begin with.  And now that the slotting/signing system is in place, teams try to game that system too.  Which adds a whole other level of context/content.

[bluedog]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

It's a little known secret (beyond the OH draft board) that SG was a Lawlar fan.  It's also a little known secret (beyond OH in general) that SG and RZNJ have a mutual level of affection for each other.  And the fact that these are neither little known nor a secret provides a great check/balance on the OH board.  

The main point is the MLB drafts are crap shoots to begin with.  And now that the slotting/signing system is in place, teams try to game that system too.  Which adds a whole other level of context/content.

I think I was in the original thread the first time SG / RZNJ had it out.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, bluedog said:

So was this necessary? I actually wanted to hear what SG had to say.

He’s just a troll. He doesn’t want conversation.  I learned the ignore button is a nice feature.

Lawlar is the total package at a premium position. Just hate passing on guys like that.

More than that, the team lost on purpose and when you lose on purpose, the biggest advantage you gain is the higher pick and really, it’s basically the only advantage you gain, along with a higher draft pool but most of that draft pool difference is taken up by the first pick.

When doing that, especially after you have done it for years already, I think you go big and go get the high upside guy.

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, Ridgway22 said:

This is one of the times I wish there was video of the decision making process we could review some day. I'd love to know what they saw / knew / thought about Lawler to pass over him. Or was it they really were super wake-and-bake high on Cowser, and if so, why?

They took Cowser because he was cheaper and they wanted money for later.  That’s it. That’s the reason. No chance they had Cowser rated the better player with all things equal.

[bluedog]

58 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s just a troll. He doesn’t want conversation.  I learned the ignore button is a nice feature.

Lawlar is the total package at a premium position. Just hate passing on guys like that.

More than that, the team lost on purpose and when you lose on purpose, the biggest advantage you gain is the higher pick and really, it’s basically the only advantage you gain, along with a higher draft pool but most of that draft pool difference is taken up by the first pick.

When doing that, especially after you have done it for years already, I think you go big and go get the high upside guy.

 

Yeah it doesn't look like we picked up anyone later in the draft with the extra $ that would make up for the difference between Lawler and Cowser. Did Norby get an overslot deal?