Yennier Canó 2023

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

And btw, if you keep Lopez maybe you don’t spend 5M on Givens and/or you move Tate in a deal and maybe Tate brings you back a Povich level prospect. Coming off of the year he had and his service time plus salary, that’s very possible.

Givens vz Lopez will be interesting to watch. I agree, it wasn't a complete salary dump, they just don't like Lopez that much. I haven't watched him pitch but that 6.6 K/9 suggests his current ERA isn't sustainable.

Ultimately it was a great trade. Yes, a genius with future seeing powers could have done better. 

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Elias done very well at acquiring cheap relievers. But that also goes to show why you don't need to pay Lopez, which was the main reason they traded him. Cano was icing on the cake. 

I don’t think Lopez’s salary was the main reason they traded him.  The guy is making $3.5 mm this year - big deal.  

They traded him because Minnesota wanted him badly and offered us an excellent package to get him, which included:

- Cade Povich, now a borderline top 100 prospect who is a starting pitcher for Bowie.

- Cano, who essentially is doing everything Lopez did but who is cheaper and under control for 6 years instead of 2.

- Juan Nunez, who is starting for Delmarva and off to a solid start.  

- Juan Rojas, who was a starter in the FCL last year and looked promising at age 18.  He hasn’t appeared this year, and I’m not sure if he’s hurt or was just held back because he’s so young.

That’s an excellent return and in my opinion that’s why Lopez was traded.  

 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Givens vz Lopez will be interesting to watch. I agree, it wasn't a complete salary dump, they just don't like Lopez that much. I haven't watched him pitch but that 6.6 K/9 suggests his current ERA isn't sustainable.

Ultimately it was a great trade. Yes, a genius with future seeing powers could have done better. 

It has nothing to do with future powers.

Its the idea of being able to evaluate and judge talent and Elias can do that.

It’s highly unlikely Elias and Sig felt Cano was going to become a dominant reliever, like he has shown so far.  However, it’s extremely likely that there was something they saw in him that made them think they could get good value out of him. To think that they only way they go after him is in the Lopez trade is wrong. There were very likely countless of other ways to get a deal done.

When they acquired him, he had been a guy who spent most of his pro career pitching in Cuba. His MiL stats were ok but nothing special overall and he was already 28 years old.

It’s just not likely that he would have been some tough guy to acquire in some kind of another deal. 
 

And if you don’t trade Lopez, it doesn’t mean you never trade him.  When the deal was made, I said I didn’t believe that they traded him at his highest point and that I wanted him for the rest of 2023 and 2023. It was more about winning and keeping a valuable reliever vs the return for me.

But that doesn’t mean you don’t trade him at all and if he continued pitching well (and outside of his FIP, which was still good, there were no indications in his stats that he was going to struggle or “come back to earth”), the value would have been there whether it be this July or the offseason.  
 

According to the MLBTR article on the trade, Povich was just outside the top 20 in terms of ranked prospects for the Twins and that’s not a deep system like ours. The Orioles liked him and to their credit, he moved through A ball fast with them before having an up and down finish at AA. Povich found himself on one top 100 list this offseason but most feel he is outside our top 10, at least entering the season. 

So yes, I feel if the Os keep Lopez and he performs well, that another top 20ish pitching prospect with good upside would have been there for Lopez.  It may or may not have been Povich himself but someone similar. I believe Elias could have identified someone like that.

And yes, when you make one move, it’s a domino effect on others. If Lopez is kept, either Givens or Tate isn’t here now..maybe both.

Would I rather have Cano in a lesser trade, Lopez for more time and still trade him for a Povich type guy?  Yes I would.

Now, do I know for a fact all of these things would happen?  No…but I have faith in what the Os are doing that it would have been able to work out this way.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think Lopez’s salary was the main reason they traded him.  The guy is making $3.5 mm this year - big deal.  

They traded him because Minnesota wanted him badly and offered us an excellent package to get him, which included:

- Cade Povich, now a borderline top 100 prospect who is a starting pitcher for Bowie.

- Cano, who essentially is doing everything Lopez did but who is cheaper and under control for 6 years instead of 2.

- Juan Nunez, who is starting for Delmarva and off to a solid start.  

- Juan Rojas, who was a starter in the FCL last year and looked promising at age 18.  He hasn’t appeared this year, and I’m not sure if he’s hurt or was just held back because he’s so young.

That’s an excellent return and in my opinion that’s why Lopez was traded.  

 

Yep..they traded him because they liked the return.

The money wasn’t a factor and you know that because they spent more to get Givens.

[Aristotelian]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It has nothing to do with future powers.

Its the idea of being able to evaluate and judge talent and Elias can do that.

 

You are suggesting that we could have cherry picked Cano and basically gotten him for free. In order to do that, you have to know that Cano is the guy. I think we traded Jorge for a package of prospects knowing that we will hit on some and miss on others and that we could replace Jorge for the same or less money.  

I definitely believe in Elias's evaluation abilities but it would take god-like omniscience to be able to systematically get guys like Cano 100% of the time without giving up Jorge Lopez-type players. I am very happy with the return we got for what we gave up. Just seems like nitpicking a trade that is a solid win, which is itself tough to do.

Go ahead, you can have last word.

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It has nothing to do with future powers.

Its the idea of being able to evaluate and judge talent and Elias can do that.

It’s highly unlikely Elias and Sig felt Cano was going to become a dominant reliever, like he has shown so far.  However, it’s extremely likely that there was something they saw in him that made them think they could get good value out of him. To think that they only way they go after him is in the Lopez trade is wrong. There were very likely countless of other ways to get a deal done.

When they acquired him, he had been a guy who spent most of his pro career pitching in Cuba. His MiL stats were ok but nothing special overall and he was already 28 years old.

It’s just not likely that he would have been some tough guy to acquire in some kind of another deal. 
 

And if you don’t trade Lopez, it doesn’t mean you never trade him.  When the deal was made, I said I didn’t believe that they traded him at his highest point and that I wanted him for the rest of 2023 and 2023. It was more about winning and keeping a valuable reliever vs the return for me.

But that doesn’t mean you don’t trade him at all and if he continued pitching well (and outside of his FIP, which was still good, there were no indications in his stats that he was going to struggle or “come back to earth”), the value would have been there whether it be this July or the offseason.  
 

According to the MLBTR article on the trade, Povich was just outside the top 20 in terms of ranked prospects for the Twins and that’s not a deep system like ours. The Orioles liked him and to their credit, he moved through A ball fast with them before having an up and down finish at AA. Povich found himself on one top 100 list this offseason but most feel he is outside our top 10, at least entering the season. 

So yes, I feel if the Os keep Lopez and he performs well, that another top 20ish pitching prospect with good upside would have been there for Lopez.  It may or may not have been Povich himself but someone similar. I believe Elias could have identified someone like that.

And yes, when you make one move, it’s a domino effect on others. If Lopez is kept, either Givens or Tate isn’t here now..maybe both.

Would I rather have Cano in a lesser trade, Lopez for more time and still trade him for a Povich type guy?  Yes I would.

Now, do I know for a fact all of these things would happen?  No…but I have faith in what the Os are doing that it would have been able to work out this way.

Its the idea of being able to evaluate and judge talent and Elias can do that.

Very next sentence

It's highly unlikely Elias and Sig felt Cano was going to become a dominant reliever, like he has shown so far.

Lots of garbled stuff saying the Orioles could have gotten all of the same talent without trading Lopez because it should have been easy and we should still have not traded Lopez.

...but I have faith in what the Os are doing that it would have been able to work out this way.

 

This post reminds me of Millie's describing Ebby Calvin LaLoosh.  Its all over the place.  

 

 

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You are suggesting that we could have cherry picked Cano and basically gotten him for free. In order to do that, you have to know that Cano is the guy. I think we traded Jorge for a package of prospects knowing that we will hit on some and miss on others and that we could replace Jorge for the same or less money.  

I definitely believe in Elias's evaluation abilities but it would take god-like omniscience to be able to systematically get guys like Cano 100% of the time without giving up Jorge Lopez-type players. I am very happy with the return we got for what we gave up. Just seems like nitpicking a trade that is a solid win, which is itself tough to do.

Go ahead, you can have last word.

I’m not nitpicking anything. Im suggesting that he could have been acquired a different way.

The Os have acquired guys that have turned into high end relievers for nothing. You all pat Elias on the back all the time for that.  Why would this acquisition be any different?

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Its the idea of being able to evaluate and judge talent and Elias can do that.

Very next sentence

It's highly unlikely Elias and Sig felt Cano was going to become a dominant reliever, like he has shown so far.

Lots of garbled stuff saying the Orioles could have gotten all of the same talent without trading Lopez because it should have been easy and we should still have not traded Lopez.

...but I have faith in what the Os are doing that it would have been able to work out this way.

 

This post reminds me of Millie's describing Ebby Calvin LaLoosh.  Its all over the place.  

 

 

You do know there is a difference between believing that he could have value as a reliever and being a dominant, upper echelon guy, right?

Like, there is a place in between dime a dozen/AAAA guy and all star. You do understand that correct?

 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Sports Guy

[foxfield]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You do know there is a difference between believing that he could have value as a reliever and being a dominant, upper echelon guy, right?

Like, there is a place in between dime a dozen/AAAA guy and all star. You do understand that correct?

 

Of course I do.  That has nothing to do with your post.  You give credit to Elias for judging talent...then proceed to say they gave too much (Lopez) for what they got.  Then go further and say they could have gotten equal players to the entire trade by giving up less...something that may or may not be accurate....and then conclude that again Elias and Sig are people you believe in to work out the way it did....

I wasn't agreeing or disagreeing....just pointing out that you took a very wide lap around throwing stones and praise....hence the all over the place comment.

 

In hindsight, the trade has been a pretty big positive for the Orioles regardless of the point you made...that it would STILL be nice to also have Lopez. And I agree it would.  But if all of your post is to be followed... The Orioles should be able to nab another Lopez or Cano pretty easily and pretty cheaply.  You do remember that Lopez was also once a dime a dozen/AAAA guy too right?

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Of course I do.  That has nothing to do with your post.  You give credit to Elias for judging talent...then proceed to say they gave too much (Lopez) for what they got.  Then go further and say they could have gotten equal players to the entire trade by giving up less...something that may or may not be accurate....and then conclude that again Elias and Sig are people you believe in to work out the way it did....

I wasn't agreeing or disagreeing....just pointing out that you took a very wide lap around throwing stones and praise....hence the all over the place comment.

 

In hindsight, the trade has been a pretty big positive for the Orioles regardless of the point you made...that it would STILL be nice to also have Lopez. And I agree it would.  But if all of your post is to be followed... The Orioles should be able to nab another Lopez or Cano pretty easily and pretty cheaply.  You do remember that Lopez was also once a dime a dozen/AAAA guy too right?

Your first paragraph is factually wrong or the point is just missing you.

First of all, I didn’t say Lopez was too much for the package. What I said was that Cano is a guy that I feel could have been acquired differently. Recent history, much less baseball history, proves that guys like Cano (at the time of the trade) are readily available. That’s not a leap to say that. It’s just a fact.

And yes, I feel if they hold onto Lopez that he continues to pitch well and that they could have dealt him for a borderline top 20 pitching prospect (probably could have gotten more with a larger sample size of success, which was my point last July). Do you disagree with that?  Do you think if Lopez continued to pitch well that he wouldn’t have had that value?

And the argument for what Lopez was before he became a reliever is so awful. Why people even bring that up is beyond me. It’s a completely different role. It’s just a bad point to make.

My point is merely saying that we could have kept Lopez for the time being, gotten Cano another way and still ended up with a Povich (or better) like prospect for the system for the long term.

 

 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Moose Milligan]

I agree that guys like Cano are available often.

I'm not sure if Cano himself would have been available any other way.  Impossible to know.

 

 

[interloper]

I mean it's not like we trade Lopez for Cano. We traded Lopez for 3 SP (all of whom are pitching pretty well so far), and Cano was a guy you hoped was alright enough to replace Lopez on the 26-man for awhile. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree that guys like Cano are available often.

I'm not sure if Cano himself would have been available any other way.  Impossible to know.

 

 

No, we don’t know for sure. It’s a safe assumption though.  If he has a rough second half, he could have been cut and been available for free. 
 

In other words, he wasn’t some can’t miss guy who will continue to get chances. If he starts to show signs that he isn’t going to cut it, they easily could have released him.

We see it all the time with arms like this.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I mean it's not like we trade Lopez for Cano. We traded Lopez for 3 SP (all of whom are pitching pretty well so far), and Cano was a guy you hoped was alright enough to replace Lopez on the 26-man for awhile. 

Yea.but the question is, could we have gotten Cano in another deal, kept Lopez for the end of 2022 and 2023 and then trade him for a similar package to what we got, whether that trade be this July or the offseason.

Personally, I believe that Lopez would have continued to pitch at a level that would have allowed us to obtain a similar package to the one we got, or better.

 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Sports Guy

[NCRaven]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Personally, I believe that Lopez would have continued to pitch at a level that would have allowed us to obtain a similar package to the one we got, or better.

 

But, he didn't continue to pitch well.  He pitched poorly for the Twins after the trade.  I doubt we'd have gotten as much for him at the end of the season vs. what we actually got at the deadline.   What he's doing now is irrelevant.