Would you make this trade for Shane Bieber and Jose Ramirez

[Sanity Check]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Easy enough to find out?  Care to guess?  Average exit velocity allowed.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=pitcher&year=2023&position=&team=&min=q&sort=6&sortDir=asc

  Reveal hidden contents

92.2   354 out of 377

 

Wow Coc, that's very telling.  Thanks for sharing that.  You guys that have been doing this for years - and have the time to do it - are great at finding this stuff.

So, the numbers in terms of hard hit balls and exit velocity do not rhyme with the ERA.  And, hit HR/9 is also not horrible, and consistent with his past years.

I could see Bieber being a crapshoot in terms of what we'd get for the next year and a half.....but I agree that there is some concerning regression.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Wow Coc, that's very telling.  Thanks for sharing that.  You guys that have been doing this for years - and have the time to do it - are great at finding this stuff.

So, the numbers in terms of hard hit balls and exit velocity do not rhyme with the ERA.  And, hit HR/9 is also not horrible, and consistent with his past years.

I could see Bieber being a crapshoot in terms of what we'd get for the next year and a half.....but I agree that there is some concerning regression.

I wasn't expecting it to be that bad.

[EddeeEddee]

14 hours ago, Sanity Check said:

To get Shane Bieber for the rest of this year and for 2024 ((he's a free agent thereafter, and will likely go that route) and Jose Ramirez (signed through 2027).....

We give up Grayson Rodriguez, Drew Rom, Jordan Westburg and  Colton Cowser.

With Bieber, you've got your ace for the next year and a half, and the proven production of Jose Ramirez for 4 and a half years.

I doubt Cleveland are thinking of selling now because they're only 3.5 games out of first in the AL Central believe it or not.  All they need is a hot streak and they're easily competing for a playoff spot.  And like someone else said Ramirez may not allow for a trade.

But I like your thinking.  I do agree with others it's a bit too much to give up in that trade, but those are two players any team would love to have.  Hypothetically I think the O's could trade without having to trade Grayson (who they should not give up on), but trading maybe one of Westburg/Cowser, and maybe Norby, Rom and couple other players further on down the Top 30 list.

[Roy Firestone]

16 hours ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

Hell No!!!!

couldnt have put it better myself....

[Sammy Seagull]

Yes

[Sports Guy]

From the article linked below:

 

The imperative for the Cleveland Guardiansbefore July 1 is easy: Figure out if they can hit at all, and then figure out whether Shane Bieber is going to bring them more at the deadline or the winter. Three general managers this week said they believe Bieber will be dealt before Aug. 1. Cleveland's done it before: It traded Mike Clevinger at the deadline in 2020 and Trevor Bauer in 2019. With Triston McKenzie's return imminent, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee looking great and Gavin Williams arriving soon, the next generation of Cleveland pitching is coming. Everything lines up. And if Bieber goes, Amed Rosario could join him -- maybe in the same deal, maybe separately.

 

 

[Billy F-Face3]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

From the article linked below:

 

The imperative for the Cleveland Guardiansbefore July 1 is easy: Figure out if they can hit at all, and then figure out whether Shane Bieber is going to bring them more at the deadline or the winter. Three general managers this week said they believe Bieber will be dealt before Aug. 1. Cleveland's done it before: It traded Mike Clevinger at the deadline in 2020 and Trevor Bauer in 2019. With Triston McKenzie's return imminent, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee looking great and Gavin Williams arriving soon, the next generation of Cleveland pitching is coming. Everything lines up. And if Bieber goes, Amed Rosario could join him -- maybe in the same deal, maybe separately.

 

 

Even before we faced Beiber, there were smart members of this message board who dove into the numbers and suggested that Beiber is not what he used to be. Then The Orioles faced Beiber and were able to get a significant amount of offensive production against him. Do we really want to over pay for someone who is looking to significantly past his prime?

As for the Ohtani in the tweet that was quoted, there's articles in several places saying that most executives believe that the Angels owner doesn't want to be known as the guy who traded away "this generation's Babe Ruth" like the Red Sox did with the real Babe Ruth, thus creating the myth of "The Curse Of The Bambino". He doesn't want to be known as that guy. So Ohtani isn't going to be traded. He'll probably hit free agency and look at whatever offer the Angels (and others) pitch to him, but he won't be traded.

[Filmstudy]

On 5/29/2023 at 7:53 AM, Sanity Check said:

To get Shane Bieber for the rest of this year and for 2024 ((he's a free agent thereafter, and will likely go that route) and Jose Ramirez (signed through 2027).....

We give up Grayson Rodriguez, Drew Rom, Jordan Westburg and  Colton Cowser.

With Bieber, you've got your ace for the next year and a half, and the proven production of Jose Ramirez for 4 and a half years.

Let's start with Ramirez...

1) He'll be 31 in September

2) He's signed thru 2028

3) There is $105M remaining on his contract for 2024-28, for baseball ages 31-35 (he'll be 36 when the contract ends

4) His power production has dropped dramatically in 2023 despite the fact his FB rate has increased

5) His overall offensive production is the lowest it has been since 2015 (age 22)

I think the Indians might be happy to offload this contract if they could find a taker to give them some minimal value for it and they are not in contention.

My conclusion: If the Orioles like him for the money over the next 5 years, he might be worth a 3-for-1 exchange of truly unknow prospect potential, but not Westburg, Cowser, or GrayRod.  Think 1 of Prieto OR Willems plus 2 more hard throwers from Delmarva.  I would be seriously concerned about how a contract like Ramirez' would constrain the Orioles from signing Rutschman or Henderson to the sort of extension that will make them career Orioles.  Just like in football, where fans are tossing out 2nd round draft picks like they were party favors, I really dislike trading any top 100 prospect and certainly not one that comes with a strong possibility for an over-market priced contract.

Bieber...

1) He's 28 as of 5/31

2) This is his worst season since his rookie year with a depressed K rate, increased BB and over 1 hit/IP, but he's still hanging in with an ERA that is somewhat better than the league average.

3) He's making $10M this season and will have his final year of arbitration prior to 2024, which makes the cost of him with a 1.5 year horizon bearable if you can assume he'll maintain his current 110 ERA+.  In addition, given the short horizon and age, that's a much smaller risk than for Ramirez.

4) This is where ME and his team come in to see if they can identify WHY he's not pitching nearly as well this season in addition to the obvious "Will he put the Orioles over the top?"

My conclusion: Bieber may well be sought after, but I wouldn't trade any of Westburg, Cowser, or GrayRod for him.  I'd probably be willing to trade either Rom OR Ortiz plus another couple of live arms from the lower minors.  Westburg plus 2 Delmarva arms for both Ramirez and Bieber would be an enormous risk (see Ramirez), but I could get behind it if ME and team have decided he won't be nearly the offensive threat he is now in Camden Yards.

[kidrock]

I’m very concerned about Jose Ramirez’s drop in production.  He’s a great player for sure, but so many guys disappear in their early 30’s now.  It’s not like the steroid era where Palmeiro can hit all the way to age 39.

I’d be pretty concerned about any of these guys in their 30’s once you start seeing production dip.

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Even before we faced Beiber, there were smart members of this message board who dove into the numbers and suggested that Beiber is not what he used to be. Then The Orioles faced Beiber and were able to get a significant amount of offensive production against him. Do we really want to over pay for someone who is looking to significantly past his prime?

As for the Ohtani in the tweet that was quoted, there's articles in several places saying that most executives believe that the Angels owner doesn't want to be known as the guy who traded away "this generation's Babe Ruth" like the Red Sox did with the real Babe Ruth, thus creating the myth of "The Curse Of The Bambino". He doesn't want to be known as that guy. So Ohtani isn't going to be traded. He'll probably hit free agency and look at whatever offer the Angels (and others) pitch to him, but he won't be traded.

No I don’t want to overpay for him…or anyone else.

But I would trade for him.