Can we all agree on one thing?

[TheWall]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is it?

It depends on the level of talent present in the top 100 list.

I'm not talking about Ortiz in particular here but the concept that a Top 100 prospect might not be regarded as a future everyday player.  Some lists are just going to be weaker than others.  A guy might be #98 in one year and would have placed #140 in another year, or #40.

I've never seen a top 100 player referred to as a placeholder at best in any evaluation. Sure, it's possible that they won't be a future everyday player and maybe the Orioles don't see Ortiz that way, but the vast majority of the time when a player makes those lists its because the folks evaluating them think they have a shot to be a solid MLB player. 

Looking at Ortiz specifically -- he already has the best glove in the system next to Mateo. If the bat comes around at all then he has a solid shot to play SS everyday. 

Few on here would call Keith Law an optimist when it comes to our prospects and this is what he had to say about Ortiz (Rank 95): 

"The second-half performance might point to an elite upside; I think the power won’t quite hold up, but he’ll hit for a high average with 30-40 doubles and 10 homers, which makes him a very good regular with that defense." 

He might be a temporary placeholder, but that definitely isn't his best-case outcome. 

[TheWall]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

What's the hard part to comprehend that makes Jackson Holliday the long term SS for the Orioles? Do you believe that Ortiz is a better prospect than Holliday? Henderson? Westburg? 

It appears that those 3 have been chosen by the O's as the longterm infielders.

I don't want to knock Ortiz as a prospect and I hope that he does well here or somewhere else. But it doesn't appear that he has a place here long term. 

Does it look differently to you?

He might be a better prospect than Westburg. The Orioles don't seem to think so, but the glove is certainly better. Holliday could also struggle at AA and take longer than expected -- who knows? Literally none of this is guaranteed. I'm fine with trading Ortiz or finding room on the roster for him. My issue was with your definitive statement that Ortiz is at best a placeholder - he isn't. 

[double]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

The general consensus seems to be that the moon landing was a hoax... and that we have aliens captive at area 51. Just nod....smile... and back away slowly.

I love the smugness of people who still believe a garbage can landed on the moon…

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is it?

It depends on the level of talent present in the top 100 list.

I'm not talking about Ortiz in particular here but the concept that a Top 100 prospect might not be regarded as a future everyday player.  Some lists are just going to be weaker than others.  A guy might be #98 in one year and would have placed #140 in another year, or #40.

The hit rate on top 100 prospects isn’t that high.   Lots of top 100 prospects never become good major leaguers.  

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, double said:

I love the smugness of people who still believe a garbage can landed on the moon…

Don't make me send Buzz Aldrin down there.

[double]

8 minutes ago, owknows said:

Don't make me send Buzz Aldrin down there.

Hes already admitted the truth multiple times. 

[owknows]

Just now, double said:

Hes already admitted the truth multiple times. 

Ahhhh... I see... you're not joking... (smiles....and backs away without making any sudden moves)

[Frobby]

Just now, owknows said:

Ahhhh... I see... you're not joking... (smiles....and backs away without making any sudden moves)

So, I guess we can’t all agree on one thing…

[Ohfan67]

16 minutes ago, double said:

Hes already admitted the truth multiple times. 

Good grief. Can we get this crap off the board? Please stick to baseball. There are a million places in the internet to talk non-orioles stuff. We just want to argue about the orioles. Go somewhere else to argue that stuff. 

[Malike]

12 hours ago, owknows said:

Do you really think it doesn't occur to the posters here, that players graduating from AAA to the majors might have a little adjustment time?

 

And even with that adjustment... Westburg has an OPS+ of 117

Compared to Frazier's 91 and Mateo's 72

 

This move was long overdue.

 

Westburg has an OPS+ of 95...

[Bemorewins]

7 hours ago, TheWall said:

I've never seen a top 100 player referred to as a placeholder at best in any evaluation. Sure, it's possible that they won't be a future everyday player and maybe the Orioles don't see Ortiz that way, but the vast majority of the time when a player makes those lists its because the folks evaluating them think they have a shot to be a solid MLB player. 

Looking at Ortiz specifically -- he already has the best glove in the system next to Mateo. If the bat comes around at all then he has a solid shot to play SS everyday. 

Few on here would call Keith Law an optimist when it comes to our prospects and this is what he had to say about Ortiz (Rank 95): 

"The second-half performance might point to an elite upside; I think the power won’t quite hold up, but he’ll hit for a high average with 30-40 doubles and 10 homers, which makes him a very good regular with that defense." 

He might be a temporary placeholder, but that definitely isn't his best-case outcome. 

Where do you see him starting here longer term?

I used the term place holder because I see much more talented players (all of whom are younger) in the other infield positions.

It is VERY possible that he has a good Major League career. I just can’t see it here. 

Do you see things differently in terms of what you project from Henderson, Westburg, and the number 1 prospect in the sport (Holliday)? Do you believe that Ortiz has a higher ceiling than any of those 3? 

For the Baltimore Orioles, I can only imagine that his best outcome here, would be the starting SS until Holliday is ready to take over, which the most conservative of estimates may be to open the 2025 season.

If I’m wrong it won’t be the first time, but I don’t see what is so egregious about this statement. The Orioles have more positional player talent within the organization than they can possibly use. Some guys will have to be moved in order to make up for the insufficiencies that we have with the pitching staff.

[baltfan]

7 hours ago, double said:

I love the smugness of people who still believe a garbage can landed on the moon…

I sincerely hope I am missing the sarcasm.

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Where do you see him starting here longer term?

I used the term place holder because I see much more talented players (all of whom are younger) in the other infield positions.

It is VERY possible that he has a good Major League career. I just can’t see it here. 

Do you see things differently in terms of what you project from Henderson, Westburg, and the number 1 prospect in the sport (Holliday)? Do you believe that Ortiz has a higher ceiling than any of those 3? 

For the Baltimore Orioles, I can only imagine that his best outcome here, would be the starting SS until Holliday is ready to take over, which the most conservative of estimates may be to open the 2025 season.

If I’m wrong it won’t be the first time, but I don’t see what is so egregious about this statement. The Orioles have more positional player talent within the organization than they can possibly use. Some guys will have to be moved in order to make up for the insufficiencies that we have with the pitching staff.

That's a fair take. An infield alignment of Henderson, Westburg, Holliday and Mayo(maybe) is the ultimate goal. Me personally, I'd like to see Ortiz replace Mateo as the predominant starter at SS now.

 

They can work in Urias and Santander at 1B and Urias can obviously spell Henderson and Westburg to keep everyone fresh and playing. Then at some point in the off-season or next season you can look to move a guy off of the ML roster and whatever MiL options for pitching. All of that being said, I'd be fine if they were going to trade Ortiz now, but I don't think they did him and themselves any favors by bringing him up and down and not giving him consistent AB's. I have to imagine his value is pretty low right now.

[banks703]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Where do you see him starting here longer term?

I used the term place holder because I see much more talented players (all of whom are younger) in the other infield positions.

It is VERY possible that he has a good Major League career. I just can’t see it here. 

Do you see things differently in terms of what you project from Henderson, Westburg, and the number 1 prospect in the sport (Holliday)? Do you believe that Ortiz has a higher ceiling than any of those 3? 

For the Baltimore Orioles, I can only imagine that his best outcome here, would be the starting SS until Holliday is ready to take over, which the most conservative of estimates may be to open the 2025 season.

If I’m wrong it won’t be the first time, but I don’t see what is so egregious about this statement. The Orioles have more positional player talent within the organization than they can possibly use. Some guys will have to be moved in order to make up for the insufficiencies that we have with the pitching staff.

I’m not convinced that Holliday is a better prospect at SS than Gunnar. Long term I see it just as likely that Holliday ends up at 2B just as much as Gunnar ends up at 3B. 
 

Defensively Joey Ortiz is a bit ahead of both of the above mentioned as well as JW, which I think is more widely known at this point. 
 

Any of these four guys could be moved for a legitimate TOR guy. Ortiz has the least value right now but the glove plays at the ML level. I’m a huge Jorge Mateo fan but it’s my opinion that he should not be a regular at this juncture. He is who he is and frankly the club needs a little more offense from the position to be a more complete roster. Insert Joey Ortiz and they won’t miss a beat. 
 

I see some Jack Wilson in Joey Ortiz. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a comparable career. 
 

 

[banks703]

5 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I don't think they did him and themselves any favors by bringing him up and down and not giving him consistent AB's. I have to imagine his value is pretty low right now.

Ehhhh I think it stinks to yo-yo a higher tier prospect but I don’t think that it impacted Joey’s value. He can play. Other teams know that. 
 

I suspect that they managed Ortiz and JW how they did not only because the team was (is) winning but also because they are a couple years older than Gunnar. Obviously Gunnar was the higher valued guy coming into this year but JW deserved to break camp with the big club. I’d wager that they assigned him to Norfolk in part due to his maturity level and understanding that he would be promoted at some point and the obvious piece of not having a place to play him regularly at the time.
 

My thinking is simply they wanted to focus on one younger guy at a time. Hence the Frazier signing. They yo-yo’d Joey a bit only because they were never going to promote JW for him to play sparingly and be sent back to Norfolk. I read somewhere that when JW was promoted last week Hyde was instructed to play him over Frazier AND Mateo if necessary. I think Joey’s time is coming. We’re already seeing Gunnar get more time at SS. I think Jorge’s days as a regular are numbered, which probably means also that McKenna is also a sitting duck. 
 

I would guess that if they really truly are intent on competing this year that some point early in the second half we will see a shift from Jorge/McKenna to Ortiz/Cowser. Cowser pushes Ant to more 1B/DH and Ortiz pushes Jorge off of SS full-time.