Someone has to say it...

[deward]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Fangraphs disagrees with that assessment.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/colton-cowser/29591/stats?position=OF

55 Speed

55 Defense

50 Raw Power

50 Game Power 

45 Hit

Those must be the ratings at the start of the year. They were pretty down on his hit tool after 2022 due to his K rate, but he seems to have ironed that out in AAA this year. I suspect they would revise that higher now. 

[Sports Guy]

 

[emmett16]

56 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I am not one of those posters who has a microwave mentality when it comes to prospects. I expect all of them to initially struggle (because most do) and if not I am pleasantly surprised.

However, I don’t see Cowser initial struggles (as he adjusts to big league pitching) as having to do with any sort of serious “bad luck”. “Bad luck” to me is when you are hitting the ball hard and fielders are making nice plays to get outs that could be hits. I haven’t see that much with him.

O’Hearn was “unlucky” for example IMO when Taylor made that sliding catch in the 6th. Cowser is not hitting the ball with authority very often. He is not driving the ball and has produced a lot of weak contact. Even the base knock that he got against NY was pretty weak contact.

What I see (from my non-trained) fan’s eye, is a player who is too passive at the plate (like Henderson was). A player who has been told/or told himself “not too do too much” and instead is not doing enough: He has to start attacking more pitches in the zone early in counts and stop getting so many 2 strike counts where then he becomes on the defensive as the pitcher becomes the aggressor/has the upper hand.

How many times since June have we seen Gunnar attack early in the count and even ambush some pitches in 0-0 counts. This is what Cowser will need to figure out (and I believe that he will given time). 

But with all of that said, right now it’s ugly to watch.

You are advocating for him to go away from what ultimately got him to MLB? That sounds like a recipe for disaster.  (See GRod). 
 

Seems to me following Gunnar’s initial approach should lead to success (as it did for Gunnar).  

[emmett16]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

 

How date you bring stats & facts into an emotional argument.  Tisk Tisk. 

[emmett16]

17 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I wonder how much the trial ABS system in AAA effects these guys when they come up. Down there they are rewarded for taking pitches just outside the zone because the system (theoretically) calls this pitches balls. In the majors we know that’s not the case, far too often.  Anecdotally it seems like there’s been a lot of called third strikes against all these guys as they’ve acclimated themselves. 
 

(disclosure - not sure if the ABS system was in place last year. If not then this is mainly just in re Cowser and Westburg). 

I think it’s more a function of what they are teaching.  They are rewarded for taking balls and they are dinged (in post game reports) for swinging at balls out of the zone.

In 1 game….or 2,or 3, or 4 they might look silly (strike 3 runner on third last night) but over the course of the season/career the pitch recognition will pay dividends and the good will far outweigh the bad.  
 

The Yankees use a diamond chart inside the strike zone (an acquaintance of mine is in their system).  Players are dinged for swing at STRIKES located in corners (imagine a diamond inside a square) with less than two strikes.  After every game they are given a chart with location of pitches they swing at.  They keep a team leaderboard and reward the guys at the top of the board. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by emmett16

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, deward said:

I was attempting to say that he isn't as good as Mullins, so he's not going to look as good out there. I didn't say anything to argue that he's in the same class as Mullins, my entire point was that he isn't, so the difference will be very noticeable. Where was the dishonesty? 

I was t attempting to accuse you of dishonesty, just making the point that we should be fair/objective/honest in our assessments.

I’m at error here though, it appears that I read something into your post that you didn’t intend.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

I was t attempting to accuse you of dishonesty, just making the point that we should be fair/objective/honest in our assessments.

I’m at error here though, it appears that I read something into your post that you didn’t intend.

Sorry typo - should be “wasn’t” in the first sentence.

[ChosenOne21]

Wait until Cowser goes 3 for 4 tonight and suddenly his overall line looks respectable.

[crawjo]

10 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

Cal Ripken during his ROY season had a .184 batting average through his first 91 PA's. 

 

Yup. I still remember how throughout his career Ripken would go through long stretches where he looked totally useless as a hitter. Then he'd try some new weird batting stance to pull himself out of it. 

[Just Regular]

We've caught lightning in a bottle with Aaron Hicks this past month, but the rest of this week, watch him up there looking (begging?) for that walk, competing with Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Taj Bradley.     Last night he got 3-0 up on I think Almonte being too cute, and then it was okay, here are your cookies, harmless fly out.

I'll concede maybe we put Santander back on the grass so Mountcastle can mix in against the world's Julio Uriases and Shane McClanahans.

We play Tampa again Sept. 14-17 and with good fortune maybe again after that, and are preparing for that competition.

Aaron Hicks is Jesus Aguilar that worked, plus some wonderful Nelson Munz Ha-Ha at NYY.     His patience, dubious CF defense and not much else skillset is Cowser-adjacent right this minute, but here's Wayne...

Ice hockey star Wayne Gretzky famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.” 

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

You are advocating for him to go away from what ultimately got him to MLB? That sounds like a recipe for disaster.  (See GRod). 
 

Seems to me following Gunnar’s initial approach should lead to success (as it did for Gunnar).  

I disagree. Gunnar changed his approach beginning in late May. He decided to start getting more aggressive earlier in the count. His walk numbers have gone down since June but the other critical offensive stats have gone up.

There is a fine line between being patient and passive. Even the great Juan Soto has struggled with this at times.

What got him here is important to remember, but it’s also important for him to figure what will work at this level. Not everything that he did prior to this will work/be effective for him. He will have to make tweaks/adjustments.

I am not down on the young man by any means, but hopeful fans/posters and especially the org is patient while he figures things out. I don’t think it will serve him well however if he is told or tells him, “just keep doing what you’ve been doing”.

[geschinger]

33 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

Being only 1 game out of first, post all star break, we are in a legit pennant race. We must play those who are producing regardless of being a rookie or a vet. If Matteo heats up, play him and so on. I understand the thinking of building for 2024....but there is no guarantee we will be this good next July. We might be 5 over struggling to stay in the WC race, who knows? Right now we have a real shot that the division, play those who are producing. 

What a player projects to be should be part of the calculus, not just who is producing now.  

If for example, they project player X could produce at an .800 OPS clip but it may take 100 ABs at a .600 OPS for him to acclimate to MLB, I'd take that every day over the veteran who we know is going to give us a ~.700 OPS.  There is of course some risk there that the player doesn't acclimate.  But I'd rather play to win instead of playing not to lose.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

We've caught lightning in a bottle with Aaron Hicks this past month, but the rest of this week, watch him up there looking (begging?) for that walk, competing with Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Taj Bradley.     Last night he got 3-0 up on I think Almonte being too cute, and then it was okay, here are your cookies, harmless fly out.

I'll concede maybe we put Santander back on the grass so Mountcastle can mix in against the world's Julio Uriases and Shane McClanahans.

We play Tampa again Sept. 14-17 and with good fortune maybe again after that, and are preparing for that competition.

Aaron Hicks is Jesus Aguilar that worked, plus some wonderful Nelson Munz Ha-Ha at NYY.     His patience, dubious CF defense and not much else skillset is Cowser-adjacent right this minute, but here's Wayne...

Ice hockey star Wayne Gretzky famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.” 

Forgive me because I’m not really sure what Wayne Gretzky has to do with baseball or Colton Cowser in particular. It is a nice quote though, but I’m struggling with the correlation.

I’m also not seeing a link between Aaron Hicks and Jesus Aguilar.

Please help me understand.

[BRobinsonfan]

The Orioles once had an infielder who went 5 for 39 in his first 23 games with no extra-base hits and only one walk batting just .128 with a .150 OBP.  He also had 2 errors in 36 chances and had a Rtot/yr of -12.  His name was Cal Ripken and he went on to have a pretty decent career.  

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, geschinger said:

What a player projects to be should be part of the calculus, not just who is producing now.  

If for example, they project player X could produce at an .800 OPS clip but it may take 100 ABs at a .600 OPS for him to acclimate to MLB, I'd take that every day over the veteran who we know is going to give us a ~.700 OPS.  There is of course some risk there that the player doesn't acclimate.  But I'd rather play to win instead of playing not to lose.

How can these reasonably/accurately project that though? All they can do is use comps, but even with that all players are unique individuals.