Could Elias call up our 19-year old SS phenom?

[Billy F-Face3]

2 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

A-Rod was not impressive in the big leagues in his age-18 (17 games, .445 OPS) or age-19 (48 games, .672 OPS) years. It was his age-20 year, his third attempt, where he finally broke out. In that age-19 year, he played 54 games in AAA with a 1.065 OPS but it didn't translate to MLB yet. I'd like to see Holliday get promoted to AAA soon, but I'm not confident that he would put up a .750 OPS immediately if he were called up right now.

Anecdotally, it also worries me a bit that a lot of Holliday's highlights aren't really spectacular hits. He'll put up a 4 or 5-hit day but two of them are of the bloop/seeing-eye/infield variety that are less likely to get through an MLB-level defense. See the third and fourth hits here:

 

Good point. I think the earliest possibility there is of seeing Jackson is jus age 20 season.  He's still got to prove his glove and his defensive range is as good as his offensive statistics, and he's still got to prove himself consistently against better talent in AAA andnthen MLB. He needs a decent sample size.

Like Frobby said, it's easy for people to look at the box score and the media hype and get excited, but the fine details in between the foul lines through 9 innings are what matters. And how many of us have been watching and scouting all his games?

There's still alot of details we don't know so we can't possibility say he is a better option than some of the other players already on the 40 man roster at this moment in time yet. We just don't know. 

But that's why we have Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal to make those determinations.

As far as reputation: Jackson's game has never been about flashy power. His game has always been about working the count with a good eye and putting bat to ball in play.  Some might not like to hear this, but that sounds alot like an Adam Frazier type of player.- good bat to ball skills. Putting it on play. Aka a contact hitter with occasional pop.

I want to see how good he is defensively before I start wishing for him to leap frog more established prospects and be added to the 40 man roster. Hitting like Ted Williams wouldn't do much good if every batted ball hits his way is getting past him and it allows the opponents to score just as many runs as he helped create for the Baysox/Tides/Orioles. Our pitchers need good defense behind them to be successful. 

It's a team game.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

All respect in the world to you and Jackson Holliday. He’s a great talent but comparing him to Alex Rodriguez is absurd and will disappoint a lot of people if they latch onto that. Holliday is an elite prospect but he’s not on the ARod level. He’s not on Manny’s level.

Sorry.

He is likely to have a great career but he’s not going to have ARod’s career and probably won’t have Manny’s career. Nothing wrong with that of course. I’m ecstatic that he’s in the O’s system but this is the reality of who he is as a player.

As far was worrying about the quality of 19 year old Jackson Holliday’s hits at Bowie, where he’s like three and a half years younger than the average player… lol 

Obviously it’s silly to put anyone on ARod’s level.  But Holliday is outhitting Manny by a very comfortable margin, so I’m fine with anyone who wants to make that comparison. 

Manny was about 7 months younger than Holliday for his draft class. His first full year in the minors, he put up an .839 OPS at low A Delmarva and .692 at hi A Frederick.  Then the next year he posted .789 at AA Bowie before his promotion to the majors.   

Holliday in his first full MiL season had a 1.183 OPS at low A Delmarva, .940 at hi A Aberdeen, and 1.049 at AA Bowie.  Holliday was 7 months older than Manny at low A and hi A, 5 months younger than Manny at AAA Bowie, outhitting Manny by .344, .248 and .260 OPS points at the three levels.   

There’s plenty of reason to think Holliday will be a better hitter than Manny, especially in his first few years in the majors.  Obviously, I doubt he will be as amazing a defender as Manny has been.  


 

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Obviously it’s silly to put anyone on ARod’s level.  But Holliday is outhitting Manny by a very comfortable margin, so I’m fine with anyone who wants to make that comparison. 

Manny was about 7 months younger than Holliday for his draft class. His first full year in the minors, he put up an .839 OPS at low A Delmarva and .692 at hi A Frederick.  Then the next year he posted .789 at AA Bowie before his promotion to the majors.   

Holliday in his first full MiL season had a 1.183 OPS at low A Delmarva, .940 at hi A Aberdeen, and 1.049 at AA Bowie.  Holliday was 7 months older than Manny at low A and hi A, 5 months younger than Manny at AAA Bowie, outhitting Manny by .344, .248 and .260 OPS points at the three levels.   

There’s plenty of reason to think Holliday will be a better hitter than Manny, especially in his first few years in the majors.  Obviously, I doubt he will be as amazing a defender as Manny has been.  


 

The bat is no doubt ahead of Manny for their age 19 seasons. We could make the argument that Holliday is a year, maybe two ahead of Manny at the plate. I keep stating that he could hit for average in the majors right now. Like, right now.

The defense though, which made Manny a more complete player, is far and above what Jackson Holliday will ever be able to do on a baseball field. He just doesn’t have that elite defensive piece to his game, which is why I keep stating that he’s going to end up at 2B, where his below average arm for SS isn’t as much of an issue.

I don’t mean to sell Holliday short. He’s an elite hitter and is going to have a very successful career and help the O’s win a lot of game while making a lot of money..because of his hit tool.

Manny was a more complete prospect than Holliday and played in an era of minor league baseball that saw no pitch clock, no shift rules, better team ERAs, lower team OPS, etc. 

[Billy F-Face3]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Bad decision imo ….Fans are fickle

Ain't that the truth. Remember when there were a significant number of fans on the message board calling for Cowser to be promoted? Now it’s the opposite. 

I get the idea of being excited to see a hyped up talented player, but there really needs to be a balance in development and a big picture strategy for their promotiona in order to give that player the best chances to succeed in their new level, where the opposing skill is so much better than it was at the previous level.

Patience is a virtue. Cowser is just one exhibit of why. By contrast, Westburg is an exhibit of what happens when you're patient and you let a player "bake" for a long time at the AAA level.

[Alasdaire]

I don't see why there's any reason to put a cap on Holliday. How many guys (in the league now; it gets too complicated if you go historically) can you definitively say have a better hit tool than Jackson?

He's a 70 right now according to some services, and I don't see why he couldn't get a higher grade. He has hit and walked at an absurd rate since he was 17, and he looks polished doing it.

He won't have the combination of hit and power that a prospect like Vladdy Jr. had. But he's also not a slap hitter who doesn't ever walk like a Cesar Prieto.

The prospect who I can think of over the past couple of years with the most advanced/polished approach at the plate is Sal Frelick. But when Frelick was 19, his distinction was second-team all ACC at Boston College. Hitting and walking like this at his age is g-word territory.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Was Cowser a favorite to win ROY?  He’s not really a comp. 

He’s a comp when you’re saying that Elias holds prospects down. Adley was hurt. Cowser got called up and has really struggled. We’re not holding Holliday down until next June. 

I’ve been saying since ST that Holliday will be up on 9/1. 

[Sports Guy]

Let’s not forget how hot he started in Aberdeen and then he cooled off a lot.

He has a lot of IF and questionable hits in AA so far.

Not taking anything away from him but his numbers look a little better than maybe what they should be.

As to whether he should be in the majors..I think you can make the case. The question is, would he help much more vs Ortiz, who is likely more advanced defensive right now and probably will give you similar offense.  
 

I tend to think it makes more sense to keep him down and play the service time game with him and bring up Ortiz now..Holliday is on the team by mid May or so next year, assuming health.

[sportsfan8703]

It’s going to be hard to keep Holliday out of finishing in the top 2 of ROY of next year. We’re talking about having Holliday under control for 2030, or having him in the playoffs for 2023. That 2030 year will probably be worth $40+ million. $40 million is a lot when Elias has to ask JA for extensions for Gunnar, Adley, and Holliday. 

Edited August 12, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Adley was hurt. Was Cowser held down too long?  I mean he’s the #11 prospect in the game according to MLB.com. 

#11 as a college bat and unanimous #1 as a teenager are far different IMO.

[Pickles]

23 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

#11 as a college bat and unanimous #1 as a teenager are far different IMO.

Good point.

The college bat is far more likely to be ready to contribute right away.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He’s a comp when you’re saying that Elias holds prospects down. Adley was hurt. Cowser got called up and has really struggled. We’re not holding Holliday down until next June. 

I’ve been saying since ST that Holliday will be up on 9/1. 

Adley should have been up the season prior (like Gunnar was).  He was also kept down after his rehab was over.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Good point.

The college bat is far more likely to be ready to contribute right away.

In most cases that is true in Holliday’s that likely is not. It could be that when he gets to the Majors he can’t handle it. But there is literally NOTHING that we have seen from him thus far that suggests that. What he has done this year is VERY RARE. None of our other top prospects have done this AND he is only NINETEEN!

Again, that doesn’t take anything away from prospects who are very good in their own right like Cowser, Westburg, Ortiz, etc. But Holliday is in a league/class of his own.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Adley should have been up the season prior (like Gunnar was).  He was also kept down after his rehab was over.

Probably true. Hopefully Elias learns from that small loss and brings Holliday up this year. Lift off was more about bringing our own guys up this year rather than FA last offseason. 

[Paul in Virginia]

Apologies if this was already posted:

 

 

 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Paul in Virginia

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Good point. I think the earliest possibility there is of seeing Jackson is jus age 20 season.  He's still got to prove his glove and his defensive range is as good as his offensive statistics, and he's still got to prove himself consistently against better talent in AAA andnthen MLB. He needs a decent sample size.

Like Frobby said, it's easy for people to look at the box score and the media hype and get excited, but the fine details in between the foul lines through 9 innings are what matters. And how many of us have been watching and scouting all his games?

There's still alot of details we don't know so we can't possibility say he is a better option than some of the other players already on the 40 man roster at this moment in time yet. We just don't know. 

But that's why we have Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal to make those determinations.

As far as reputation: Jackson's game has never been about flashy power. His game has always been about working the count with a good eye and putting bat to ball in play.  Some might not like to hear this, but that sounds alot like an Adam Frazier type of player.- good bat to ball skills. Putting it on play. Aka a contact hitter with occasional pop.

I want to see how good he is defensively before I start wishing for him to leap frog more established prospects and be added to the 40 man roster. Hitting like Ted Williams wouldn't do much good if every batted ball hits his way is getting past him and it allows the opponents to score just as many runs as he helped create for the Baysox/Tides/Orioles. Our pitchers need good defense behind them to be successful. 

It's a team game.

He’s not “leapfrogging” anyone. He is already at the top of the pile at #1. He has no catching up to do at all.

He is almost assuredly to get better and stronger next year as he transitions from his teens. He is ALREADY our best prospect and very very likely to get/be better next year. 

I don’t think any other player (maybe Kerjstad) in our entire org has a 70 hit tool like Holliday does.