TT: Rangers remind me of the 2014 Royals

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He failed miserably. It's not about velocity, it's about controlling his emotions and stuff. He did not do either. He'll learn from this, and I think one day he will be that ace that starts game one, but there is no other way to explain yesterday's start as anything but an utter failure.  

He's been very good since returning but this start reminded me of when he first came up and the moment was a little too much for him. I think going back to the minors helped him calm down, and when he started to control his emotions, he found his command.

This start did remind me of many of Grsyson’s first 10 starts.  In particular, he either fell behind hitters, or couldn’t finish them off when he was way ahead in the count, and threw a lot of non-competitive pitches.  Apparently he threw about 75% fastballs, which was a puzzling choice.  

[Tony-OH]

24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Also meant to say, I agree with everyone wholeheartedly about Irvin.  Not having him on the playoff roster is egregious.

Irvin in August and September including 4 starts:

ERA: 2.43
Slash: .205/.252/.369/.621

Yet was sent to the minors over the last two week of the September and was not put on the playoff roster. He can give length and was pretty darn good in a relief role. Not a good choice at all by Elias and company. I don't know what computer program or situation that they thought Baker was a good fit against, but they went with a inferior pitcher in the biggest series of the year.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Irvin in August and September including 4 starts:

ERA: 2.43
Slash: .205/.252/.369/.621

Yet was sent to the minors over the last two week of the September and was not put on the playoff roster. He can give length and was pretty darn good in a relief role. Not a good choice at all by Elias and company. I don't know what computer program or situation that they thought Baker was a good fit against, but they went with a inferior pitcher in the biggest series of the year.

Only if Irvin was going through some sort of dead arm period like Wells did earlier.  But throwing to that slash line doesn't suggest that at all.

Really, really poor planning by Elias and Hyde here.  And no one's going to ask why he wasn't included, either.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

This start did remind me of many of Grsyson’s first 10 starts.  In particular, he either fell behind hitters, or couldn’t finish them off when he was way ahead in the count, and threw a lot of non-competitive pitches.  Apparently he threw about 75% fastballs, which was a puzzling choice.  

The velocity was up on all of his pitches and he couldn't land the fastball or changeup for strikes. Just classic signs the emotions were running high and he wasn't able to contain those emotions.

I've never seen such energy in the first inning from the fans. It was crazy and I can understand how hard it must've been to try and not get overhyped. That is where having a guy with playoff experience helps. It's not surprising that Hicks had a good game yesterday because he's been there. He could handle the pressure of the fans.

Henderson has been very impressive considering he's facing a lot of lefties. Rutschman has been a disappointment. Mullins has been an absolute zero and is an automatic out right now. It's hard to play against a tough team when two of you better players are not producing. Add in a rookie pitcher, and it was just not a good combination.

 

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

Irvin's absence doesn't make any sense to me, either. Perhaps they were worried they would be too lefty-heavy in the pen, but considering that Irvin is good at both a) throwing strikes, and b) eating innings, it's confusing. Of course if Baker hadn't shown all the control of Steve Sax out there, maybe we wouldn't be having this conversation, but he did, and we are. 

Baker since September, including his good 3 inning relief appearance with the Orioles on September 15th:

So this guy hasn't even been pitching well. Would love to understand why he was put on this roster.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But that's my entire point. They are just white hot like the Royals, not that they are doing it the same way. They are in no way built the same way.

But the Royals were white hot for about two months.   They went 34-21 in August and September and made the playoffs by winning 6 of their final 8 games.  The Rangers went 30-26 in August and Sept./Oct. 1 and lost 3 of their final 4 games to blow a division title they could have won just by splitting those 4.   

Anyway, you’re certainly right that both teams swept a playoff series against a favored team before playing the Orioles, and Texas is on the verge of rolling the Orioles, as the Royals did.  I think what I’m saying is that the perception at the time was that the Royals were on a huge heater and playing over their heads, running on pure emotion.   Texas on the other hand feels like an extremely talented team that perhaps is finally playing up to their capabilities after sleepwalking through a lot of the summer.  They underperformed their Pythagorean record by 6 games during the season, and had a significantly bigger run differential (+165) than the Orioles did (+129).   The 2014 Royals on the other hand had overperformed their Pythag by 5 games and their run differential (+27) was modest compared to the Orioles’ (+112).   And, that Orioles team was coming off a sweep of the Tigers in the ALDS.  So, for me that Royals series seemed like much more of an upset than this would be.

Now, I’ll say this: the 2015 Royals proved the the 2014 team was much better than it was perceived to be.   

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

54 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Also meant to say, I agree with everyone wholeheartedly about Irvin.  Not having him on the playoff roster is egregious.

I think Elias focused on the righty/lefty makeup of the pitching staff too much instead of picking the best pitchers for the ALDS roster. Baker sucks and should only really be brought in for mop up duty.

Irvin has been effective in the second half and I trust him more when the game is in doubt. If Elias wanted more effective RHP out of the bullpen he should have traded for one in July.

Edited October 9, 2023 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Baker since September, including his good 3 inning relief appearance with the Orioles on September 15th:

So this guy hasn't even been pitching well. Would love to understand why he was put on this roster.

Orioles worried too much about the makeup of the bullpen when it came to the number of right and left handed pitchers over picking the best performing players.

[TopGunnar]

If Cole Irvin is on the roster we probably win yesterday. 

[DirtyBird]

49 minutes ago, SilentJames said:

What gave me bad Royals vibes was during that second inning, a couple infield hits and then Alodis' grounder that bounded off the mound into center field. 

There was one infield hit, and on that Grayson was slow getting to the ball and then tried to lob a throw over the baserunner's head.

The grounder that went up the middle was 112 mph off the bat, w/ .590 xBA

[schittenden]

4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

There was one infield hit, and on that Grayson was slow getting to the ball and then tried to lob a throw over the baserunner's head.

The grounder that went up the middle was 112 mph off the bat, w/ .590 xBA

If he’s thrown the ball into the runner’s back, he’s out for running inside the baseline and the runner at third (who scored) is sent back to third. A veteran pitcher wouldn’t have hesitated and would have made that play. Hopefully, they’ll talk about it so he doesn’t make that mistake again. 

[Just Regular]

Baker was really good for about 10 minutes in Las Vegas to help his case.

I think many relievers/Driveline students of the week do reveal themselves about 10 innings at a time, but 10 minutes could be pushing it.

Anyway, in the great meta of emulating the Rays, Baker over Irvin reminds me of the Rays 2021 pitching roster selections for their ALDS with Boston.     They went reliever heavy, and it just took one game of Red Sox hot bats and one 13-inning game (no ghost runners!) to basically leave them without enough pitching to cover an elimination game.

[Rbiggs2525]

When you factor in Scherzer actual pay, this is a 300 million dollar team. Money isn’t everything but it definitely cures wounds. We lost the first 2 games by 4 runs combined and it’s been mostly due to coaching.

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

If Cole Irvin is on the roster we probably win yesterday. 

Perhaps, we don't really know. But I do know I'd rather have him in the game than Baker.

When Baker came in, due up was:

Jung - RH
Taveras - Switch hitter who hits righties better than lefties
Siemens - Right-hander who hits both but slight edge to hitting right-handers surprisingly
Seager - Left-hander who mashes righties

Seems like you get a little advantage and you have a better pitcher. Unless Irvin has some kind of injury that we don't know about, his exclusion is a black eye for Elias and company. Would the Orioles have won the game, who knows? But he seemed like a great handicap to Rodriguez because they are such different pitchers. 

[Pat Kelly]

Os lack of pitching depth and experience is being exposed.  Firmly believe Elias made the call to roll the dice with what he had to build long term success.  Elias would not make the 2014 EROD-Andrew Miller trade or 2023 equivalent to win the ALDS.  Losing Bautista made projections worse and unfortunately occurred after the deadline.   Had Fuji been lights out things could have played out differently.
 

Replacing Frazier, Urias and Mateo with Holliday(starting 2B), Ortiz (utility /Westburg plays 3B until Mayo is ready) and Cowser (platoons with Hays in LF) makes 2024 team better.   Spend FA $ acquiring BP quality (no Bautista), together with dumpster diving and $$ on another SP.  No projectable quality pitching in minors that we can count on for next year.  
 

Crazy to think a 101 win team is still a WIP but hard to win the postseason with a 5 game ALDS WC round - imagine the Os were playing Texas in a 7 game series now for a trip to WS- need everything to click in post-season and almost no weaknesses- Os not quite there.  Hope Elias is right about long term plan cause as a fan this series has been a gut punch.