DL Hall's future?? Reliever or Starter?

[now]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its a waste of ST preparation until a couple of starters go down with injuries and then its not.

I've liked the dream of DL starting as much as anyone but also see that he's likely a better fit for relief. To your point, a greater need in the starting rotation also brings with it a greater need to cover innings in the bullpen. 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its a waste of ST preparation until a couple of starters go down with injuries and then its not.

Well if you want to prepare a guy who will not be a good starter for a contending team for a role he's not a good fit for, go right ahead. The Orioles have plenty of better options already on the roster and in the minors.

On top of it all, he and Perez give the Orioles two left-handed weapons at the end of the bullpen. Why weaken a pen that already needs to add real talent?

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's been clear since his Bowie days that he needs to be in the pen. So you can waste time and preparation by trying to put a square peg into a round hole, and the Orioles may do that next spring just to placate Hall, but he should be expected and prepared to fill a part of the major league bullpen next year.

In fact, his injury history is just another reason not to even think about putting a heavy workload onto him. 

You guys can hope and pray for a miracle, while I'll go with what his stats, health history, and command tell me what his best role should be.

To play Devil's advocate, I seem to recall you make a similar argument about Erik Bedard in 2005.

The odds are certainly in your favor.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The obvious name to go to is Randy Johnson who had a walk rate of 14.5% his first five years in the majors and didn't make his MLB debut until he was 24.

He could go deeper than Hall but that was because they let guys throw more pitches back then.

Am I trying to say Hall has HoF talent?  of course not but that is an example of a 29 year old cutting his walk rate from 6.2 to 3.5.

Well if you wanna hold your hat on Hall following the very unusual development path of a Hall of Fame pitcher who was an absolute freak of nature, feel free. 

I'm going to live in reality and use guys in the roles that will best allow the Orioles to win baseball games in 2024. 

Now do I think it's impossible? No. Then again I don't think it's impossible that Gunnar Henderson could hit 62 home runs next year. I do however find it very, very unlikely. 

The Orioles are no longer in a rebuild and we need to get out of the rebuild mode in our thinking. Hall has his role. He's already shown to be very good at it at the major league level. His upside is a very good closer.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Well if you wanna hold your hat on Hall following the very unusual development path of a Hall of Fame pitcher who was an absolute freak of nature, feel free. 

I'm going to live in reality and use guys in the roles that will best allow the Orioles to win baseball games in 2024. 

Now do I think it's impossible? No. Then again I don't think it's impossible that Gunnar Henderson could hit 62 home runs next year. I do however find it very, very unlikely. 

The Orioles are no longer in a rebuild and we need to get out of the rebuild mode in our thinking. Hall has his role. He's already shown to be very good at it at the major league level. His upside is a very good closer.

I was just giving an example of a guy who managed to greatly improve his command and pitch efficiency at a relatively advanced age.  You wanted a name, I gave you one.

I think it's a lot easier to transition a starter to the pen then the reverse and I think a starter is more valuable.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

To play Devil's advocate, I seem to recall you make a similar argument about Erik Bedard in 2005.

The odds are certainly in your favor.

You have misremembered. I don't recall ever ever suggesting Erik Bedard should be a reliever. Bedard actually showed that he could be a very good starter in the minors. I may have said he would be an absolute stud as a reliever after his mediocre 2004 season, but I don't recall ever thinking of Bedard as anything other than a starter. 

[Pickles]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

You have misremembered. I don't recall ever ever suggesting Erik Bedard should be a reliever. Bedard actually showed that he could be a very good starter in the minors. I may have said he would be an absolute stud as a reliever after his mediocre 2004 season, but I don't recall ever thinking of Bedard as anything other than a starter. 

It was not a long-held position, as you have been clear about in regards to Hall, but it was after a frustrating start early in Bedard's 2005 campaign where you posted that they should transition him to an "Arthur Rhodes role."  5 days later he basically turned his season/career around and was an effective starter for the O's the rest of his time here, and often dominant.

You already responded to COC's Randy Johnson comp, and, of course, you're 100% correct and the odds are certainly stacked in your favor.

But LHPs with good fastballs who take some time to develop command/efficiency and become good starters is not exactly man bites dog stuff.

Another name I'd throw out there would be C.J. Wilson.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You have misremembered. I don't recall ever ever suggesting Erik Bedard should be a reliever. Bedard actually showed that he could be a very good starter in the minors. I may have said he would be an absolute stud as a reliever after his mediocre 2004 season, but I don't recall ever thinking of Bedard as anything other than a starter. 

Pretty sure you said Bedard would or should be a reliever.   You also said it about Bradish, I think.   The odds are with you on Hall because most pitchers like these don’t become successful.    All three had trouble going deep and questionable walk rates in the minors.   Hall’s control is easily the worst of the three but he’s also the only one with an actual usable changeup FWIW.

[Sports Guy]

37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think it a combination of things.    Winning 101 games and the division sets the sights higher. The focus is winning the World Series next.   

Also losing Bautista leaves a hole in the back end of the pen where Hall and Well will make them stronger.

 

I agree..it’s the same things I have argued with you for at least the last month that you essentially brushed to the side. 
 

I know  I didn’t convince you of anything so I’m just wondering why you all of a sudden changed your mind. (Btw, I think your take here is 100% correct)

[Just Regular]

All the Sigbots have been fading High School Arms because of arm exploding risk, and I could get behind the idea almost any pitcher with Hall or Grayson's pedigree (~Top 20 out of all the 18 and 21 year old Americans that year) has Hall of Very Good talent.

Despite halting progress, in both their cases an encouraging demographic fact is they've survived to their mid-20's without a major arm injury yet.    Including Hall, the high school Arms at his pick or better since have been:

2017 - 2 Hunter Greene, 3 MacKenzie Gore, 12 Shane Baz, 13 Trevor Rogers, 21 DL Hall

2018 - 7 Ryan Weathers, 8 Carter Stewart, 11 Grayson Rodriguez, 15 Cole Winn, 16 Matthew Liberatore

2019 - 18 Quinn Priester, 24 Daniel Espino

2020 - 15 Mick Abel

2021 - 3 Jackson Jobe, 7 Frank Mozzicato, 13 Andrew Painter

2022 - 15 Dylan Lesko, 20 Owen Murphy

2023 - 10 Noble Meyer, 16 Bryce Eldridge, 2-way player

On a certain level with these guys, you just hope the fastballs fire for 12 or 15 years.     Grayson's ahead of Hall at demonstrated ability to do that most of the year long.     A lot of the above names are humans who have been unable to pitch, and even though TJ can be overcome some of the talent is usually left in the operating room.

Shane Baz blew the doors off the Minors in approximately Grayson type ways.    He will be back next year, and a big delta for next few years will be how strong his return is.

I know Sigbot likes tandems in minor league development....Tyler Wells and DL Hall provide an interesting combo entering 2024.     They can't do 150 innings, but 70 isn't necessarily the max they can cover productively.

Hopefully the Bats step it up to provide more abundant 4-inning Save kind of scenarios.     Until Elias completes high value Bats for Arms exchanges, its fundamentally going to remain on the position player group to fuel the team's success.

[SilverRocket]

DL Hall couldn't cut it as a starter because of his high walk rate and pitch count. This hasn't been a problem in his relief outings this year. The question is whether this problem was fixed due to being in relief, or is it just fixed generally due to developmental improvements and being healthy? Or given the relatively small sample size, is it even fixed at all? I feel like that's what this decision comes down to.

If his relief walk rate was still high but he was still effective despite that, then I would be inclined to keep him as a reliever. But he's had a month and a half of good command and the upside is so large that I feel like I at least want to see if he can keep that as a starter. Worst case is he goes back to the pen... I don't think it would mess him up if it didn't work out.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Pretty sure you said Bedard would or should be a reliever.   You also said it about Bradish, I think.   The odds are with you on Hall because most pitchers like these don’t become successful.    All three had trouble going deep and questionable walk rates in the minors.   Hall’s control is easily the worst of the three but he’s also the only one with an actual usable changeup FWIW.

I 100% said that about Bradish when I first saw him based on his stuff and delivery at the time. I've also said that he looks nothing like that guy now and that's a credit to him and the Orioles development.

As for Bedard, and I have a hard time remembering what I had for lunch the day before  , I may have suggested that Arthur Rhodes role would have been a great role for him, which it would have been, but I don't remember ever giving up on him bein a starter like I have with Hall. Bedard never had the command problems of Hall and he did have a usable changeup.

 

[Billy F-Face3]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d stretch him out in spring training, but if he’s not good enough in the spring to crack our starting five, it’s time to cut bait and met him be a useful piece of our 2024 bullpen, not continuing to audition in the minors for an eventual job as a starter.  

Hall looked good in his bullpen role, but he was still averaging 19.2 pitches per inning.  That’s not likely to work as a starter.  
 

I agree with this. Stretch him out in Spring Training to start, give him a starting audition in the rotation to see how it goes, and if it doesn't go as hoped for then the fall back plan B can be the bullpen for now.

No more wasting bullets in the minors.

[Billy F-Face3]

I don't see the comparison some are making with Bedard. Bedard was a soft toss Curveball artist as far as I remember.  Hall is more a stuff strikeout guy.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I don't see the comparison some are making with Bedard. Bedard was a soft toss Curveball artist as far as I remember.  Hall is more a stuff strikeout guy.

https://fastballs.wordpress.com/2010/04/18/tales-of-the-curve-an-analysis-of-erik-bedard/

Quote

When healthy, his four-seam fastball runs 92-95 mph and breaks away from a right-hander by about 7-11 inches. The four-seamer is one his two primary pitches to right-handed hitters; he throws it 34% of the time. Against lefties, it’s his third pitch, used only 23% of the time.

His cut fastball runs 90-94 mph and breaks away from a right-hander by about 2-6 inches. The cutter is his primary pitch to lefties, used almost half the time (45%); against righties, it’s his third pitch, used 24% of the time.

90-95 was pretty respectable back in 2007.