Some potential moves for this offseason

[btdart20]

20 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Food for thought, but would it still be considered that if they had won the World Series the last 3 seasons?

Is it good for thought?  Or conventional wisdom?  That’s what we all think “going for it in a competitive window” looks like in a mid-market team.  Or BUA for the big boys.

It was a fun novelty at least.  Something different for the plot graph.

[btdart20]

Just now, btdart20 said:

BUA

BAU

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You have an extremely wealthy owner who is a two time cancer survivor.

I'll still praise him for trying to spend his way to a title.

Near as I can tell the plan was never to sustain this level of spending long term.

Beats not spending at all and pocketing revenue sharing money.

He does have six players under contract through at least 2027, three of whom are under contract until at least 2033.  So, they’ll be spending for a while, and I suspect some of those contracts will get ugly.  Still, I’m not criticizing any owner who subsidizes his/her team.

[wildcard]

12 hours ago, 24fps said:

Should that happen - and I'm not saying it won't - then you can kiss Mike Elias goodbye the moment his current contract is up.  I have to think that during the interview process, Elias sold John Angelos on the Astros rebuild game plan and five years later that's what he's delivered, step-by-step.  The Astros' successful World Series push came after the first two winning seasons of the rebuild (2015-2016) and in 2017 they spent to win.  2016 OD payroll was 30th in the ML at $69 million and rose to $124.3 million in 2017 which was 18th.  In 2018 it was 11th at $160 million.  It's been above league average every year since.

John Angelos knows the road map and he bought the trip five years ago.  Of course, nothing in this argument guarantees that he won't try to be a cheap weasel anyway, but IMO it would be naive to think that the O's success hasn't been planned out with JA's full participation.  So the 2023-2024 off season is the first clear put up or shut up time for Orioles ownership.  The team has given him no place to hide; it's time to write a couple of checks.  I think we fans might still be disappointed, but I don't believe we're in line for Gibson and Givens part 2.

So the thing that the O's need this off season is starting pitching.  They are probably pretty happy with Bradish, GRod and Kremer.    They have to extend Means.  Probably a 3 year deal that has a base salary with big bonuses for innings pitched.  Because if Means can stay healthy enough to hit those bonus levels he is probably pitching well.   His 2026 total comp may 17 to 20M if he stay healthy.  He is the veteran starter and leader that replaces Gibson.

The 2025 team has two key pitchers on the team ready to play big roles.   Bautista and 1st rounder Seth Johnson.  Johnson is probably as important to the O's future as GRod and Hall.  All three are first rounders.  Johnson is probably projected as the 5th starter and by 2025 he and Hall, who spent 2024 as a reliever, are ready to be a starters.   Bautista being back makes its easier to take Hall out of the pen.  Hall and Johnson are two chances to grow long term starters cheap.

So what the O's need is a one starter in 2024.   They don't need to sign  or trade for an expensive long term starter.   They need to pay for a one year guy better than Gibson, better the Kremer.   That IMO is Elias' mission this off season.

The O's need to improve the offense but they have Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad and Cowser coming.  They don't need to spend on offense.

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

So the thing that the O's need this off season is starting pitching.  They are probably pretty happy with Bradish, GRod and Kremer.    They have to extend Means.  Probably a 3 year deal that has a base salary with big bonuses for innings pitched.  Because if Means can stay healthy enough to hit those bonus levels he is probably pitching well.   His 2026 total comp may 17 to 20M if he stay healthy.  He is the veteran starter and leader that replaces Gibson.

The 2025 team has two key pitchers on the team ready to play big roles.   Bautista and 1st rounder Seth Johnson.  Johnson is probably as important to the O's future as GRod and Hall.  All three are first rounders.  Johnson is probably projected as the 5th starter and by 2025 he and Hall, who spent 2024 as a reliever, are ready to be a starters.   Bautista being back makes its easier to take Hall out of the pen.  Hall and Johnson are two chances to grow long term starters cheap.

So what the O's need is a one starter in 2024.   They don't need to sign  or trade for an expensive long term starter.   They need to pay for a one year guy better than Gibson, better the Kremer.   That IMO is Elias' mission this off season.

The O's need to improve the offense but they have Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad and Cowser coming.  They don't need to spend on offense.

Your plans always call for everything to go perfect. You can’t assume that at all.

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your plans always call for everything to go perfect. You can’t assume that at all.

All they need to do is work on it in the offseason.

[Sports Guy]

And I don’t see why the “have to” extend Means. 

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

So the thing that the O's need this off season is starting pitching.  They are probably pretty happy with Bradish, GRod and Kremer.    They have to extend Means.  Probably a 3 year deal that has a base salary with big bonuses for innings pitched.  Because if Means can stay healthy enough to hit those bonus levels he is probably pitching well.   His 2026 total comp may 17 to 20M if he stay healthy.  He is the veteran starter and leader that replaces Gibson.

The 2025 team has two key pitchers on the team ready to play big roles.   Bautista and 1st rounder Seth Johnson.  Johnson is probably as important to the O's future as GRod and Hall.  All three are first rounders.  Johnson is probably projected as the 5th starter and by 2025 he and Hall, who spent 2024 as a reliever, are ready to be a starters.   Bautista being back makes its easier to take Hall out of the pen.  Hall and Johnson are two chances to grow long term starters cheap.

So what the O's need is a one starter in 2024.   They don't need to sign  or trade for an expensive long term starter.   They need to pay for a one year guy better than Gibson, better the Kremer.   That IMO is Elias' mission this off season.

The O's need to improve the offense but they have Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad and Cowser coming.  They don't need to spend on offense.

I still think Sonny Gray is the perfect "better than Gibson" guy. After that, you start to get into multi year contract guys. 

I'd also like a veteran bullpen arm to replace Webb. Need another shutdown RHP after Cano to pair with Hall and Perez. Hicks or Stephenson would be perfect, although they may be looking for more years.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I still think Sonny Gray is the perfect "better than Gibson" guy. After that, you start to get into multi year contract guys. 

I'd also like a veteran bullpen arm to replace Webb. Need another shutdown RHP after Cano to pair with Hall and Perez. Hicks or Stephenson would be perfect, although they may be looking for more years.

I think Gray is the most realistic target of a FA pitcher who is very good.

I have a lot of doubts that he gets more than 3 years. It’s possible but he would be the guy I think gets squeezed out of the larger contract compared to others.

 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I still think Sonny Gray is the perfect "better than Gibson" guy. After that, you start to get into multi year contract guys. 

I'd also like a veteran bullpen arm to replace Webb. Need another shutdown RHP after Cano to pair with Hall and Perez. Hicks or Stephenson would be perfect, although they may be looking for more years.

Or Kimbrel.   I would love to have Gray.  He has been talked about on this board for more winters than I can remember.  
But I doubt either happens. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

And I don’t see why the “have to” extend Means. 

You will probably see it a year from now when he walks if he is not extended.

Means has been been very vocal about wanting  to win the WS.   There is probably not a better team for him to be on than the O's.

Edited October 20, 2023 by wildcard

[Osornot]

My two cents.  If there is any "must-have" it is for a legit but it's going to cost $$ (and probably overspend) it is for a closer.  Hader can be that closer.  After that, the bullpen is a crapshoot except for Cano as the set-up. It may be an "up for grabs" strategy and include the current staff in the opportunities, which does not give me a great feeling but some had their moments.

IMO, none of the SPs really excite me for a long-term contract.  I see pitchers like Sonny Gray, etc. on here - the years and $$ will be an anchor. The best way is through a trade - and it may hurt a bit...

I have some concerns about the OF - Mullin's IL stints could have been crushing but we got lucky with Hicks.  I am just not sure about the young guys yet - Kjerstad will be interesting in 2024 but he is going to be 25 this year. Hays is tough. Santander is tough.  I need to defer to people on here who have much more knowledge than I. 

 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You will probably see it a year from now when he walks if he is not extended.

Means has been been very vocal about wanting  to win the WS.   There is probably not a better team for him to be on than the O's.

Then there will be no reason for him to leave if the team wants to keep him.

But it’s foolish to get into a long term deal, especially 3 years, with him at this time.  We don’t know who he will be after the surgery. 

You will have all next year to negotiate an extension if you want to.

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Then there will be no reason for him to leave if the team wants to keep him.

But it’s foolish to get into a long term deal, especially 3 years, with him at this time.  We don’t know who he will be after the surgery. 

You will have all next year to negotiate an extension if you want to.

Disrespect John Means at your own risk.

Means was taking the O's to arbitration when he got hurt.   You mess with him or show him you don't respect him you may not like the results.

Edited October 20, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Disrespect John Means at your own risk.

Means was taking the O's to arbitration when he got hurt.   You mess with him or show him you don't respect him you may not like the results.

If he leaves, so be it. Doing something stupid because you are worried about this is an awful way to do business.

He’a a good pitcher but acting as if he’s irreplaceable is just foolish.