Why Kyle Gibson might be resigned

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, SteveA said:

But there might be a reality where a Gibson level acquisition (1 year/$12mm) is all that Elias is allowed by ownership to do in free agency, and Elias' reluctance to part with prospects along with high demands by other teams prevents us trading multiple prospects for someone capable of giving us 180+ innings.

And in that reality, Gibson becomes a reasonable possibility.   He fulfilled that role last year, yet he didn't do well enough to merit a multi-year at his age.   I hope we don't live in that reality, but I can't say for sure.

Yea I don’t see this being a reality, no matter how little I trust JA. Something will unquestionably be available in trade that is better than Gibson and is easily attainable for us.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

I don't know why we should resign Kyle Gibson when guys like Montgomery, Snell, or Eovaldi are available and will only cost you a few million more per year.  Sure, there is the downside of having to commit to more years, but compared to going for retread 35 year olds?  What's the safer bet, 5 old guys on 15 million dollar 1 year deals, or Montgomery on a 5/90 deal?  I think the latter is a much safer bet.  It's not like we were particularly frugal on financial terms with Gibson.

First, Eovaldi is signed through 2024, with an option for 2025.   Cross him off your list.  

Second, I don’t think a comparison of 5 contracts to one contract is apt.  I’d actually say the Montgomery contract would be more risky, because if he gets hurt or takes a dive in year 1 or 2, the team is stuck with all 5 years, whereas the team when signing a 1 year deal can’t blow more than one year at a time.  But we’re also not talking about $15 mm for a Gibson-type anyway.  
 

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I don’t see this being a reality, no matter how little I trust JA. Something will unquestionably be available in trade that is better than Gibson and is easily attainable for us.

Hope you are right.

[Dunk35]

We have too many prospects at AAA that are either ready now or will be in July 2024. Elias needs to figure out who his guys are and then deal from the excess. The time to win is now. Trading guys like  Cowser/Norby/Ortiz/Kjerstad should be able to net a solid SP in trade. Do it and get this team better next year. Gibson is a last resort signing that should available if we need him in March. 

[24fps]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

First, Eovaldi is signed through 2024, with an option for 2025.   Cross him off your list.  

Second, I don’t think a comparison of 5 contracts to one contract is apt.  I’d actually say the Montgomery contract would be more risky, because if he gets hurt or takes a dive in year 1 or 2, the team is stuck with all 5 years, whereas the team when signing a 1 year deal can’t blow more than one year at a time.  But we’re also not talking about $15 mm for a Gibson-type anyway.  
 

Risk is the elephant in the room.  So far, neither John Angelos nor Mike Elias has shown much appetite for risk and until one or both leave their comfort zone, it's kind of a sterile discussion anyway.  That we're discussing whether to re-sign Kyle Gibson at all speaks volumes and not in a good way.  Wake me up when the discussion of Snell vs. Montgomery vs. ERod breaks out when the Orioles have skin in the game.

[Safelykept]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What?

I'd rather not have Gibson back, I'd prefer an upgrade.

But given the choice between not adding anyone or adding Gibson I'd rather add Gibson.

I don't think the O's have the internal depth to handle multiple injuries to the starting rotation.

Did you not realize I was responding to the post directly above mine?

Sorry if you didn't, I didn't think a quote was needed.

Everybody would prefer an upgrade but its like;y to be Gibson or somebody comparable, they need the innings. Wells and Hall are needed for the bullpen and maybe that's where they might make a significant signing or 2. The pen without Felix is the thing that's me got me nervous. Bradish, Grod, Means Kremer and Gibson(or comparable)   as starters Wells Hall and Irvin in the pen as starter backup if necessary. Probably McDermott as Bullpen depth along with a whole bunch of other Norfolk guys Baker, Baumann Vespi, etc as added bullpen depth. Same as last year layers of depth, slow play it until the trade deadline, hopefully something more significant than Jack and Fuji  

[Safelykept]

6 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

Unless DL Hall shows he can start, this team needs two additional starters, not one.  Doesn't matter if it's in FA or as a trade -- or both -- but I think that is where things stand for this rotation.

Means has not shown he can't yet be relied on to start for a full season.  Like someone else said, he could be next year's Wells.  And even if he can, something is bound to go wrong with one of the other starters -- either they are not good or someone gets hurt.  

And if we sign two starters and we find out we have too many starters?  Even better, someone gets traded or or goes to deepen the bullpen for depth.  

If we just sign one starter, then it's too similar to where we were at the beginning of 2023.  Even if that starter is someone like ERod or Nola or Montgomery, it would look like this:

1. Bradish

2. FA/Trade Starter (not named Gibson/Lyles)

3. Means

4. Grayson

5. Kremer 

This is a very good staff if everything is perfect, but it's hard to believe Means goes all season, Grayson does not hit some more more bumps, or that Kremer is who we want as the #5 guy all season.  Hall could start but unlikely.  Wells could start but even more unlikely.  Irvin does not belong in the rotation even if someone is out for awhile.

This is what we need:

1. Bradish

2. FA/Trade Starter

3. Means

4. Grayson

5. FA/Trade Starter

Kremer fills in if someone gets hurt or struggles (or is trade bait for one of the above starters), otherwise he works out of the pen as the long man.  Hall and Wells -- along with Cano -- are late inning relievers at least until Bautista gets back.  

Of course if Hall proves to be an effective starter then everything changes and we'll be looking for more relief help.  

 

Kremer To the pen, not likely. Not to start the season anyway. They will sign a Free agent starter Gibson or something equal Hall Wells and Irvin in the pen as needed starter backup

[foxfield]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No, we didn’t have quality…we had depth and security. Huge difference.

We didn’t have experience. And we played poorly pretty much across the board. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

We didn’t have experience. And we played poorly pretty much across the board. 

Rays, Braves and Dodgers had experience.

[foxfield]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Rays, Braves and Dodgers had experience.

Yep. And so do the 0-2 in the ALCS Astros. Gotta play too. 
 

They also made ”investments” in their team for the postseason. 
 

This circular argument that somehow Elias or John Angelos beat the Orioles is silly. 
 

To this thread, I am not advocating for resigning Gibson. I’m just saying that for the money he makes, his 192 innings were pretty valuable. And keeping him for depth and security would be reasonable insurance. 
 

Like everyone else I hope they add at least one SP who would slot #3 or better. 
 

A Bassitt or Eovaldi from last year…

[Roll Tide]

11 hours ago, 7Mo said:

192 innings certainly has value. But that's spending roughly $10M to tell Irvin, Wells and DL Hall that they're likely in the bullpen, where they don't want to be. 

I think they bring in a guy for significantly less than $10M who they think they can fix who could start, but without the commitment so there's a fair competition between that signee and the 3 above. 

I don’t think Elias cares where they guys want to be! Hall and Wells are best suited in the pen. Hall because he can throw less pitches and therefore use his best arsenal. That avoids the walks and the hits against his lesser stuff. Wells has hit a wall 2 straight years and there is no reason to believe it won’t happen again. Kremer is a solid 4th or 5th starter and the idea from @oriolethat he’s no more than depth is laughable. Irvin is not better than Kremer but, I’d be fine with a competition for the last spot or two. 

Means is one season before free agency. So he may be dealt this offseason or mid season if they stick to their guns about the plan that Angelos spit out. If they are handing out big money it’s to guys like Gunnar ….not Means

Edited October 17, 2023 by Roll Tide

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Safelykept said:

Everybody would prefer an upgrade but its like;y to be Gibson or somebody comparable, they need the innings. Wells and Hall are needed for the bullpen and maybe that's where they might make a significant signing or 2. The pen without Felix is the thing that's me got me nervous. Bradish, Grod, Means Kremer and Gibson(or comparable)   as starters Wells Hall and Irvin in the pen as starter backup if necessary. Probably McDermott as Bullpen depth along with a whole bunch of other Norfolk guys Baker, Baumann Vespi, etc as added bullpen depth. Same as last year layers of depth, slow play it until the trade deadline, hopefully something more significant than Jack and Fuji  

Baumann will not be at Norfolk.  He is out of options.

Edited October 17, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

We didn’t have experience. And we played poorly pretty much across the board. 

Actually, we had like one or two bad innings (and even that wasn’t like they were playing bad) and the rest of the time, we hung with them but just didn’t get the same breaks or find the same holes.

We need more talent…we don’t need depth. Depth is a silly thing to desire in most cases. By that I mean, yea you want it but depth should come in the form of cheaper guys, like Wells and Irvin(for example), not 10+M players. 

The mid priced FA signings rarely work out and you can usually get the same (or very similar) production for a fraction of the cost.

I will agree that eating innings is important…provided that you are producing at a solid rate to do it.  190+ innings of 5+ ERA ball isn’t overly valuable.

[Bemorewins]

12 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's have five strong starters now.   Bradish and GRod probably improve next season.  Means, if things go right, will return to what he was but be better because he has a better team supporting him.   Kremer IMO is pretty close to his ceiling but that is really very good when I look as his last 5 month of the regular season.

Wells is very good for 100+ innings.   What Holt and company need to do is make that 100+ inning at the end of he season instead of the beginning.

And I think they will add someone that can start.

No surprise here - but I disagree with your assessment of the O’s rotation. I do not think we have 5 “strong” starters. Maybe our definitions of “strong” are different?

- Grayson is a young ascending player with top of the rotation potential. 

- Bradish had a wonderful season and we hope that he will replicate the season that he had. Next year will be his age 28 season so I’m not sure how much we can predict any more growth? He may have reached his ceiling? (Which is fine because he’s really good)

- Means is a pretty significant question mark given his injury status/situation. I don’t think that it is wise to count on him as a rotation anchor, more like a “bonus” at this point. 

From there you have Kremer, who is a solid #5 who is very inconsistent. Can be great but can also be poor. Definitely not the kind of pitcher who you can trust in the postseason with your season on the line.

Then there is Wells, who I really like, who will be 30 next year. He is what he is at this point and any growth would be unwise to depend on.

IMO we need a good experienced veteran to anchor our rotation. Not Kyle Gibson who is the definition of meh.

[vab]

The reason they felt like they needed a Lyles in '22 and Gibson this past season is because they had so many young SPs who didn't have a full season in the majors under their belt. That is no longer the case with Bradish and Kremer and G-Rod came close enough that he can probably be counted on now. It is now time to focus strictly on talent when adding to the rotation whether that is through trade, free agency or both.