Cease vs everyone else

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, Pickles said:

I find it hilarious that you of all people are saying they won't be relevant for 4 years when you routinely scalded Mike Elias and insisted it "doesn't need to take this long!" despite the fact that he turned this team around in..... wait for it.... four years.

Using that logic, nobody makes sense for them because they'll be "well into their service time."

Unless they want to play with 19 year olds in A ball.  I've said from the beginning if they're that stupid, they should stop wasting our time.

 That was my very first thought when I saw that comment.  

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Elias said it came down to SF and Bmore and we gave him 100% authority on baseball operations so he chose the O’s. 

That would be the other half.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it was as much dumb luck as anything.

The Elias plan involved slashing payroll to the bone.

John liked that.

Good recruiting and hiring isn’t dumb luck, it’s making the best educated decision you can. 
 

While Elias’ plan did involve slashing payroll, spending in the Dominican is an expense. Granted, it’s not the same as shelling out a 100 million dollar contract, but it’s still money being spent. 
 

I can’t imagine Elias went through the interview process and wowed JA with his plans on how to cultivate young talent without discussing philosophies on how to retain some of it. 

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Elias said it came down to SF and Bmore and we gave him 100% authority on baseball operations so he chose the O’s. 

That's incorrect:

"Per the filing, Elias only chose to join the Orioles because Baltimore "codified" several things in his contract that gave him the power to make staffing decisions without ownership involvement."

And it wasn't a ME quote-it was per court filings.  I read it wrong initially too.

[ChosenOne21]

8 hours ago, Sydnor said:

What about the bat don’t you believe in? He has less swing and miss than any of the AAA guys (I’m excluding Holliday because he wasn’t there for long). He has enough pop to hit 10-15 HRs. I see no reason Ortiz can’t be about league average (100 OPS+/WRC+) with the bat. With his defense at SS or 2B, that’s likely a 3-3.5 win player. 

From Tony's writeup:

Ortiz can hit good fastballs, but struggles at time with good offspeed pitches and hit too many balls on the ground, especially at the major league level.

There are some concerns that Ortiz hits too many good offspeed pitches on the ground and he'll chase occasionally as well. His pull power also may not play in cavernous Camden Yards, but he still should be able to hit for gap power.

 

I'm not saying he won't hit enough to be useful, but there's a real chance he doesn't hit enough to be especially valuable. He really sounds like a guy whose power vanishes at the MLB level, and the left field wall isn't going to do him any favors. Given regular playing time, I think he'll likely have at least one 3-win season, but I'm guessing his baseline is going to be closer to 2.

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, Pickles said:

I find it hilarious that you of all people are saying they won't be relevant for 4 years when you routinely scalded Mike Elias and insisted it "doesn't need to take this long!" despite the fact that he turned this team around in..... wait for it.... four years.

Using that logic, nobody makes sense for them because they'll be "well into their service time."

Unless they want to play with 19 year olds in A ball.  I've said from the beginning if they're that stupid, they should stop wasting our time.

Well it shouldn’t take that long but it will. Their owner is like ours. He’s cheap and only cares about making money.

They should be trying to contend in 2026 but I doubt they will. 
 

Now, if their owner is going to be more committed to winning sooner, that changes things but Reisndorf is awful, so I think he will take advantage of this and collect profits for a while.  

Edited January 6 by Sports Guy

[Roll Tide]

12 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Agreed. The O's won 101 games last year WITHOUT Cease. They do need to improve IMO, but it's not as if he is the last piece of the puzzle that means a title. If the deal isn't right, I'd rather go to war with Bradish, GRod, Means, Kremer, Wells, Hall and Irvin. 

True but they haven’t replaced Gibson yet. We have 3 reliable starters Rodriquez, Bradish , and Kremer. Means came back and had to be shut down at the playoffs. Hall and Wells are relievers. Hall couldn’t get through 5 regularly in the minors due to high pitch counts and gave up runs that I’m assuming was on his secondary stuff. Wells has ran out of gas after 100 innings 2 straight year.  I don’t know what to say about Irvin but I’m not convinced he will be as good as Gibson.

[sportsfan8703]

Hope/away AAA splits

Ortiz .954/.814

Kjerstad 1.100/.749

What’s going on down there?

[Jagwar]

29 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

True but they haven’t replaced Gibson yet. We have 3 reliable starters Rodriquez, Bradish , and Kremer. Means came back and had to be shut down at the playoffs. Hall and Wells are relievers. Hall couldn’t get through 5 regularly in the minors due to high pitch counts and gave up runs that I’m assuming was on his secondary stuff. Wells has ran out of gas after 100 innings 2 straight year.  I don’t know what to say about Irvin but I’m not convinced he will be as good as Gibson.

Again... agreed. My thinking was I don't want to do a bad deal just to do a deal for a starter. 

[ofan239]

36 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

True but they haven’t replaced Gibson yet. We have 3 reliable starters Rodriquez, Bradish , and Kremer. Means came back and had to be shut down at the playoffs. Hall and Wells are relievers. Hall couldn’t get through 5 regularly in the minors due to high pitch counts and gave up runs that I’m assuming was on his secondary stuff. Wells has ran out of gas after 100 innings 2 straight year.  I don’t know what to say about Irvin but I’m not convinced he will be as good as Gibson.

Yes they need someone to cover Kyle Gibsons innings. I think John Means should be fine but you have to cover the what ifs. If I was Mike Elias and money was no object I would have signed Jordan Montgomery yesterday . I think he’s exactly what we need on the field and in the clubhouse . We’d keep our prospects for an aggressive July deadline deal.

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Hope/away AAA splits

Ortiz .954/.814

Kjerstad 1.100/.749

What’s going on down there?

Cowser H .771  A .909

Norby H .862 A .833

Westburg H .797  A .874

Nothing much.  Did you stop after checking the home/road splits for two players?  I

 

 

[bpilktree]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

True but they haven’t replaced Gibson yet. We have 3 reliable starters Rodriquez, Bradish , and Kremer. Means came back and had to be shut down at the playoffs. Hall and Wells are relievers. Hall couldn’t get through 5 regularly in the minors due to high pitch counts and gave up runs that I’m assuming was on his secondary stuff. Wells has ran out of gas after 100 innings 2 straight year.  I don’t know what to say about Irvin but I’m not convinced he will be as good as Gibson.

Wells is a perfectly reliable starter starting the season.  He was one of the better pitchers in the league the first half of the season.  Now you may need to add a guy at the deadline if if he does wear down again but it is false saying he isn’t reliable the first half of the year.  Means is the question mark but this is still a 90 win team as contrasted now.  The question is do we have the pitching to compete September and October.  We are as good as anyone in the league right now.  

[RZNJ]

@Frobby you should do a poll on the WS site.  From what I can see they don’t like any of our prospects outside of Holliday.  Mayo, Basallo, and Kjerstad have 1B risk.  Ortiz is too old and has no upside.  Norby’s defense.  Cowser’s ML SSS.  Any prospect we are willing to give up because then they must not be any good.   

Edited January 6 by RZNJ

[Safelykept]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

True but they haven’t replaced Gibson yet. We have 3 reliable starters Rodriquez, Bradish , and Kremer. Means came back and had to be shut down at the playoffs. Hall and Wells are relievers. Hall couldn’t get through 5 regularly in the minors due to high pitch counts and gave up runs that I’m assuming was on his secondary stuff. Wells has ran out of gas after 100 innings 2 straight year.  I don’t know what to say about Irvin but I’m not convinced he will be as good as Gibson.

Agree 100% and have full confidence they are going to get one.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, bpilktree said:

Wells is a perfectly reliable starter starting the season.  He was one of the better pitchers in the league the first half of the season.  Now you may need to add a guy at the deadline if if he does wear down again but it is false saying he isn’t reliable the first half of the year.  Means is the question mark but this is still a 90 win team as contrasted now.  The question is do we have the pitching to compete September and October.  We are as good as anyone in the league right now.  

Never said he wasn’t good. He just runs out of gas at 100 innings. So he’s better suited for a pen/swing man role. Honestly he’d be my spot starter swingman and Hall one of my leverage relievers. I’d find a starter ….Clevinger, Burnes, Bieber, ….someone not named Cease.