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Cease vs everyone else

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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7 hours ago, Malike said:

Cease clearly has value and would upgrade the rotation, but don't buy the nonsense that he's a number 1 starter. He's not.

He was a #1 starter in 2022 and his FIP suggests even with his down year last year that he's a solid #2 or #3 at worse.

A playoff rotation of Bradish, Rodriguez and Cease intrigues me for sure. If John Means is your 4th starter then your rotation is pretty good.

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Tony-OH
Tony-OH

I'm just catching up on this but we know how Elias and company share information outside of their inner circle. They don't. We've heard from players many times say they don't hear from the Orioles abo

btdart20
btdart20
Spy Fox
Spy Fox

@Sports Guyis so prolific, he's the #3 poster on the Soxtalk thread despite joining on page 102 of 149. He's also the #1 poster in this thread, so potentially on track to be the #1 poster on both team

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I mean everything has to come together. But, maybe not ….he walked a crap load even in his CY young season. He was unhittable 6.2 per 9. Looking at that season his FIP was 3.10 was worse than his ERA 2.20. Plus he gave up 45 home runs 2 years ago and 90 ERs last year.

I just don’t see it …

there is maybe a 10-15% chance he’s similar to his 2022 performance. Considering the asking price I don’t think it’s worth the stretch. I’d go after Luzardo or one of the Seattle guys. And I’d bite the bullet and make one of Kjerstad, Cowser, Basallo available in that deal. I’d still prefer to hang onto Mayo and Holiday is untouchable because I’m sure he is. 

The thing is, the Orioles are certainly not going to offer the talent it would take to get a 2022 version of Cease. So I don't think anyone but maybe the White Sox GM values Cease like that. 

If Getz wants value for the 2022 version of Cease, then he's going to hold on to him because no team is going to do that, and certainly not Elias. 

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The thing is, the Orioles are certainly not going to offer the talent it would take to get a 2022 version of Cease. So I don't think anyone but maybe the White Sox GM values Cease like that. 

If Getz wants value for the 2022 version of Cease, then he's going to hold on to him because no team is going to do that, and certainly not Elias. 

I agree ... Thats why I would try to pry Braxton Garrett or Lazardo with one of our top guys as the headliner that's not Holiday and of the others Id prefer to hang onto Mayo

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Where he's ranked by others doesn't matter to me. I said I'd deal him especially for Braxton Garrett. If you wouldn't thats perfectly fine. Of our guys ranked higher than Ortiz, Id prefer to keep Mayo and Holiday. Can't keep em all IMO

Actually,  you can keep all of the special ones.  It's just being able to recognize which ones are special.  Holliday and Basallo are.  Mayo is close.  

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btdart20 Hangout Veteran Council

btdart20

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47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Actually,  you can keep all of the special ones.  It's just being able to recognize which ones are special.  Holliday and Basallo are.  Mayo is close.  

Agreed.  And Mayo is special too.  We shouldn’t be trading them IMO.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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The Os have a ton of players to trade that the thought of trading any of our top 3 guys is laughable imo.

Now, to get a difference maker, it does mean trading Westburg, Kjerstad or Cowser and any of those guys should absolutely be on the table for a trade.

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Rustbelt AAA

Rustbelt

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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os have a ton of players to trade that the thought of trading any of our top 3 guys is laughable imo.

Now, to get a difference maker, it does mean trading Westburg, Kjerstad or Cowser and any of those guys should absolutely be on the table for a trade.

I mentioned on WS board that the Orioles should not trade Holliday, Basallo and Bradfield because there are no true duplicate prospects in the system.  Holliday is obvious.  Basallo being a catcher has to be kept.  Bradfield is the only true center fielder prospect in the system. 

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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53 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

John Brebbia signed by White Sox. Now Orioles can trade for Cease  O'Hearn ,McCain and McKenna.  Three players for one. Maybe the Orioles are giving up too much.

I thought I was pretty clued in to major league baseball players, but I'm embarrassed to say that I've never heard of John Brebbia until now.

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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4 hours ago, Morgan423 said:

Different eras, sure, but I just saw someone in another fan forum last night who pointed out (and apologies if it's already been discussed elsewhere in this massive thread and I'm rehashing) that current Cease is extremely statistically similar to Erik Bedard at the time we traded him to the Mariners.

I definitely hadn't caught that, and it's an interesting review of possible value, and if current day can be equated in any way to then. 

Bedard at time of Seattle trade:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W40-L34, 3.83 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.59 FIP - 2 years left on contract

Cease, current:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W43-L35, 3.83 ERA, 113 ERA+, 3.86 FIP - 2 years left on contract



 

Amazing how similar they are.  Whoever trades for Cease has to hope he doesn't have a post trade Bedard like career. 

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree ... Thats why I would try to pry Braxton Garrett or Lazardo with one of our top guys as the headliner that's not Holiday and of the others Id prefer to hang onto Mayo

I'm not one to nit pick about typos (we're all human), but you've spelled his name incorrectly in four separate posts. It's L U Z A R D O. 

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

Posted
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9 hours ago, Morgan423 said:

Different eras, sure, but I just saw someone in another fan forum last night who pointed out (and apologies if it's already been discussed elsewhere in this massive thread and I'm rehashing) that current Cease is extremely statistically similar to Erik Bedard at the time we traded him to the Mariners.

I definitely hadn't caught that, and it's an interesting review of possible value, and if current day can be equated in any way to then. 

Bedard at time of Seattle trade:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W40-L34, 3.83 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.59 FIP - 2 years left on contract

Cease, current:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W43-L35, 3.83 ERA, 113 ERA+, 3.86 FIP - 2 years left on contract



 

That is an interesting comparison. For some reason I had forgotten that Bedard had issues with walks as well. Let's hope, if we trade for Cease, things turn out better. 

Early Robbie Ray also makes a pretty good Cease comparison. Like Cease, Ray was a hard thrower with walk issues who had one great season (in 2017) and then regressed after. He wasn't able to get back to that level again until he changed his approach to pitching, cut down on his walks and learned to pitch to contact more. 

Robbie Ray's Stats

Career Stats

Season Team LG W L ERA G GS CG SHO HLD SV SVO IP H R ER HR NP HB BB IBB SO AVG WHIP GO/AO
2014 DET AL 1 4 8.16 9 6 0 0 1 0 0 28.2 43 26 26 5 547 0 11 0 19 .350 1.88 0.80
2015 AZ NL 5 12 3.52 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 127.2 121 56 50 9 2257 8 49 3 119 .255 1.33 0.98
2016 AZ NL 8 15 4.90 32 32 0 0 0 0 0 174.1 185 105 95 24 3176 6 71 4 218 .267 1.47 1.21
2017 AZ NL 15 5 2.89 28 28 1 1 0 0 0 162.0 116 57 52 23 2715 5 71 3 218 .199 1.15 0.81
2018 AZ NL 6 2 3.93 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 123.2 97 55 54 19 2287 5 70 3 165 .216 1.35 0.97
2019 AZ NL 12 8 4.34 33 33 0 0 0 0 0 174.1 150 91 84 30 3064 5 84 5 235 .234 1.34 0.94
2020 2 teams - 2 5 6.62 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 51.2 53 40 38 13 1064 1 45 1 68 .261 1.90 0.45
2021 TOR AL 13 7 2.84 32 32 0 0 0 0 0 193.1 150 62 61 33 3141 4 52 0 248 .210 1.04 0.72
2022 SEA AL 12 12 3.71 32 32 0 0 0 0 0 189.0 163 80 78 32 3047 7 62 0 212 .231 1.19 0.84
2023 SEA AL 0 1 8.10 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3.1 4 5 3 0 91 0 5 0 3 .308 2.70 0.75
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