Cease vs everyone else

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Greg Maddux...Roger Clemens...Kyle Gibson...just like three peas in a pod

 

Some guys are winners and I guess some aren’t 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Valuable post …go t9 the head of the class 

I mean, when an argument is that insane in the membrane it really doesn't lend itself to an intelligent well thought out rebuttal. 

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I mean, when an argument is that insane in the membrane it really doesn't lend itself to an intelligent well thought out rebuttal. 

We can agree to disagree 

[ThisIsBirdland]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So the general claim is he was better last year than his ERA suggest due to a crappy defensive team. So in his great year his FIP indicates his ERA was better than he actually pitched. Surely it goes both ways right.

His ERA could be any number of factors he would have limited control over: defense, park, luck (not sure what his BABIP was tbh).

Here’s a quick definition. Note that Cease has maintained the stable, high FIP despite the walks over the last three years.

Definition

FIP is similar to ERA, but it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over -- strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches and home runs. It entirely removes results on balls hit into the field of play.

For example: If a pitcher has surrendered a high average on balls in play, his FIP will likely be lower than his ERA. Balls in play are not part of the FIP equation because a pitcher is believed to have limited control over their outcome.

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

We can agree to disagree 

No, we can agree that you are off your rocker if you want to use a lack of wins to ding a pitcher who played for a 61 win team last season. I mean, why don't we knock Dylan Cease for not curing cancer last season too while we're at it!

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

No, we can agree that you are off your rocker if you want to use a lack of wins to ding a pitcher who played for a 61 win team last season. I mean, why don't we knock Dylan Cease for not curing cancer last season too while we're at it!

And mentioned the year before when they weren’t a 61 win team ….drop it Dude

[dystopia]

32 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I can't believe you're actually doubling down on this. It's like watching the Titanic slowly sink into the ocean. 

The first half of his post was 100% correct. 

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

His ERA could be any number of factors he would have limited control over: defense, park, luck (not sure what his BABIP was tbh).

Here’s a quick definition. Note that Cease has maintained the stable, high FIP despite the walks over the last three years.

Definition

FIP is similar to ERA, but it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over -- strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches and home runs. It entirely removes results on balls hit into the field of play.

For example: If a pitcher has surrendered a high average on balls in play, his FIP will likely be lower than his ERA. Balls in play are not part of the FIP equation because a pitcher is believed to have limited control over their outcome.

got it …. So a pitcher gives you 5 signings of 1 run ball. He gives up a single and 2 walks in the six before departing. The relief pitcher gives up 2 sac fly balls before getting the 3rd out, the pitcher loses the game 3-2. Do you think it’s unfair that he lost the game. I can think of a start or two of Cease’s where I recall he left with men on the bases. 
 

Wins and losses some time are irrelevant and other times are directly related to the starters performance.
 

 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

And mentioned the year before when they weren’t a 61 win team ….drop it Dude

You haven't made a single tangible point or convincing argument for why wins should be used to evaluate a pitcher's ability and/or performance and that's because you can't. I'll drop it when you admit you were wrong, which means we'll probably be talking about this until hell freezes over. 

[wildbillhiccup]

17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Wins and losses some time are irrelevant and other times are directly related to the starters performance.

Translation: Wins and losses are irrelevant in the real world, but sometimes they are relevant when I've unfortunately used them to try and  and make my argument and I've gone too far down the rabbit hole to turn back now. 

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Translation: Wins and losses are irrelevant in the real world, but sometimes they are relevant when I've unfortunately used them to try and  and make my argument and I've gone too far down the rabbit hole to turn back now. 

We can agree to disagree

[banks703]

The Wins stat itself carries less and less weight the more that the game evolves into this max effort/shorter workload version that we’re seeing nowadays to protect pitching investments. 
 

All the information you need to understand how the game is evolving is in this SI article from this past May:

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/05/22/starting-pitching-decline-pitch-count-timer-injuries
 

Starting Pitching Comparison 2014 to 2023:

 

Year	Win Pct.	ERA	Pct of Ws	QS	7+IP Starts	Pitches/GS
2014	.498	3.82	70.2%	54%	31.4%	96
2023	.476	4.45	59.0%	35%	11.2%	87

After Verlander, we will probably never see another pitcher sniff 300 wins. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

37 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

got it …. So a pitcher gives you 5 signings of 1 run ball. He gives up a single and 2 walks in the six before departing. The relief pitcher gives up 2 sac fly balls before getting the 3rd out, the pitcher loses the game 3-2. Do you think it’s unfair that he lost the game. I can think of a start or two of Cease’s where I recall he left with men on the bases. 
 

Wins and losses some time are irrelevant and other times are directly related to the starters performance.
 

 

 

Not really sure what fairness has to do with it. Which starting pitcher doesn't leave a start or two (or obviously more) with runners left on base?

But back to FIP, let's use the example you describe. Let's say a RP instead comes in and strikes out the side, bailing Cease out, and the team wins 2-1. Cease's FIP would increase from the two walks and the single, whether the runs were given up or not. This would give you a better idea of Cease's quality as a pitcher versus whether he won the game or not.

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Not really sure what fairness has to do with it. Which starting pitcher doesn't leave a start or two (or obviously more) with runners left on base?

But back to FIP, let's use the example you describe. Let's say a RP instead comes in and strikes out the side, bailing Cease out, and the team wins 2-1. Cease's FIP would increase from the two walks and the single, whether the runs were given up or not. This would give you a better idea of Cease's quality as a pitcher versus whether he won the game or not.

Got it thanks …. I just don’t buy into the Argument that wins are irrelevant to a starting pitcher. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

It would be kinda cool if, like, tomorrow, we just signed, oh I don't know, James Paxton or Mike Clevinger, and Mike Elias then made a public statement like "we're done adding to the rotation for the winter," and finally put all of this silly Cease business to bed before this thread turns into a bloodbath.

Also, it would be kind of hilarious to actually see Chris Getz unironically price himself out of his own market. Suitors are seemingly dropping like flies and the Orioles were most likely their best hope for a really good return for Cease with multiple MLB ready pieces to plug in right away.