2023 Orioles #1 Prospect Jackson Holliday - SS/2B

[Tony-OH]

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/17/orioles-2023-1-prospect-jackson-holliday-ss-2b/

The first overall selection in the 2022 draft by the Orioles, Jackson Holliday flew through the minor league systems at just 19-year old, and is widely considered across baseball as the top prospect in all of baseball.

Jackson Holliday
Pos: SS/2B
Bats: L
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 19
2023 Levels: A/A+/AA/AAA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/70
Game Power: 40/55
Raw Power: 40/60
Run: 55/55
Defense: 45/55

Most Likely Future Role: Starting 1st Division SS or 2B
Ceiling: 1st Division Starting SS, multiple All-Star appearances

2023 Highlights

2023 Stats

What we know: The 1st overall pick in the 2022 draft, this 19-year old left-handed-hitting shortstop has the making of a future superstar, and that future may begin at the major league level sooner than later. Although not as physical as say a Gunnar Henderson or Manny Machado at 19, he keeps his body under control in all aspects of the game and still has lots of room to grow into more strength. Went from Low A-ball to AAA in his first full minor league season as a 19-year old, and never looked out of place among the older competition.

Jackson brings 70 grade bat to ball skills with a very advance feel for hitting at a very young baseball age. He can drive the ball to all fields, even hitting multiple oppo home runs, but was more of a line drive hitter. He tends to drift out of the box a bit at times and struggles at times to hit left-handed breaking balls. That upper body leaking suggests there's more power in the bat. Overall though, he picks up spin well and will make in game adjustments. He's got a well above average control of the strike zone and although he has some miss in his swing at times, especially when it gets a bit long, he makes good adjustments and battles with two strikes.

Defensively, Jackson has an average arm at shortstop and average range, though he doesn't show that explosive quickness team may prefer at shortstop. His hands are solid and should get better as he matures. At just 19-years old, he's hasn't grown into his man strength so the arm and quickness could still improve. As of now, he's behind Gunnar Henderson and Joey Ortiz defensively at SS but that could change with some more physicality that comes with age.

He runs well, and although he’s not a burner, he’s an above average runner with a good aptitude to steal bases. He may not be a big time stolen base threat at the major league level, but should be able to steal 15-20 bases a season.

Not surprisingly after growing up in major league clubhouses, he has off the charts baseball aptitude, is a hard worker, and by all reports, is a humble young man who gets along well with his teammates.

What we don’t know: Holliday is going to be a major leaguer but the question is when? Mike Elias has stated he will get an opportunity to win a job at major league camp next spring, but the Orioles typically like to get their top prospects at least 200+ PAs in AAA before bringing them up. Defensively, he has some work to do at SS and while he shows solid average quickness, he doesn't have the plus arm and quickness most teams want at the SS position. Without some improvements as he grows into his man strength, his best position might be at 2B at the major league level if he stays on the dirt.

What we think: While Jackson doesn't bring top of the chart power and speed to his tools, his 70, maybe 75 hit tool will be his carrying tool at the major league level. He's going to hit for average, draw walks, and should fill out more to give him 20-30 home run power at the major league level. While he may never be a gold glove candidate at SS, he should be able to be a solid average defensive SS and if he moves to 2B, he could be a well above average fielder.

With the Orioles currently stacked with second base and shortstops, they can take it a bit slow and allow him to physically mature in AAA next year if there is not an immediate need. We could see the Orioles giving him the Gunnar Henderson treatment by bringing him up late in August so he's available for a playoff roster, but not giving him enough PAs to lose his rookie status for 2025.

Some Action Shots by Patrick Cavey:

Taken by Patrick Cavey

Taken by Patrick Cavey

Taken by Patrick Cavey

[Sports Guy]

I almost feel like the Basallo write up is more glowing.

[Frobby]

I was listening to a podcast the other day and the host said that Holliday is one of the few hitters who can actually aim the direction he hits the ball.  He’ll see a gap and hit a liner right there.   That should be fun to watch.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I almost feel like the Basallo write up is more glowing.

My sense of it is that Basallo has the higher ceiling, while Holliday is more of a sure thing, while still having a very high ceiling.  

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I almost feel like the Basallo write up is more glowing.

 

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My sense of it is that Basallo has the higher ceiling, while Holliday is more of a sure thing, while still having a very high ceiling.  

Basallo is just an exciting player to watch because of the immense power. You know, chicks dig the longball, but so does everyone else!

If Basallo hits his ceiling, he very well may end up the more dynamic offensive player, but let's not get too down on Holliday. We're talking about a 19 year old kid that put up a .442 OBP in 581 PAs across 4 levels of the minor league system. 

Holliday doesn't really wow you with the big home runs, and very well may never end up a big power guy, but he's going to be an absolute OBP machine and has enough speed to be a really good leadoff hitter.

He's good enough defensively too up the middle and I expect him to get better.

So while it's easy to gush over Basallo's bat, and rightfully so, Holliday is the #1 overall for me because of his overall game and the fact he's already in AAA. 

Now if Basallo comes back next season is continues to kill it and improves like he did this year, then we can have that conversation at this time next year.

[LookinUp]

70 hit tool. 80 family make-up tool. Good up the middle defense. Already pretty strong. OBP machine. Extremely high floor. Very young.

I'd offer him an extension before opening day and then service time isn't an issue. Just promote him immediately and hope he grows and wins ROY, even if that's unlikely.

I seriously hope the O's keep all of our top 3 and build around them. That would be 5 studs. You can fill a lineup around that. 

[wildcard]

I am a little surprised at two things in Holliday's write-up.

1) the lost speed from 2022 to 2023.    He was rated 60, now 55.   That is slower that Westburg.

2). Tony's projection that  Holliday may not get called up until August.  I understand that he may not be ready on opening day and that he does not have 200+ PA in AAA.   But August?   If Holliday keeps getting on base at a 400 pace I think Elias will find a place for him in Baltimore by May/June.   

JMO

Edited November 17, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

Yea, there is no way Holliday is in AAA until August unless he is hurt or the performance just isn’t there. Injuries are always a possibility but it would be shocking if the performance isn’t there.

[btdart20]

Although not as physical as say a Gunnar Henderson or Manny Machado at 19, he keeps his body under control in all aspects of the game and still has lots of room to grow into more strength. 

This observation is really good.  That body awareness extends into his hit tool as well.  I think he's an MLB hitter now, meaning his CV hit tool would be a 50 in my book.

The upper body leaking/disconnect from his lower body was noted in Beavers too.  Could Holliday intentionally/trying to sacrifice power to add to his hit tool?  Especially when he's hunting a pitch but also protecting?  That skill requires a degree of mental/body control responsiveness.

Not surprisingly after growing up in major league clubhouses, he has off the charts baseball aptitude, is a hard worker, and by all reports, is a humble young man who gets along well with his teammates.

That's good to see.  I've been kinda watching how he interacts with the humans who happen to be on the team with him.  He seems to be a quiet guy.  He cheers others on, celebrates with them, encourages them, etc.  But he seems to be a bit of a loner too.  Not necessarily snobbish, but just goes about his business.  I wondered if it's because he knows he's special.  Or just has different goals and is so focused on them that he's sacrificing the social/team side of the game (at least for now).  The glimpses I've seen reminds me of some vets on rehab.

 

I tend to think Super 2 is the target timing.  If he finishes in the top 3, whatever/cost of business.  If he's #1, bonus.  If he's out of the top 3, that's baseline.

I'd like to see Holliday get the bulk of 2B reps in 2024.  With Gunnar and/or Ortiz (if he's not traded) getting the bulk of the time at SS.

2024 ST/OD can't come quick enough!

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

70 hit tool. 80 family make-up tool. Good up the middle defense. Already pretty strong. OBP machine. Extremely high floor. Very young.

I'd offer him an extension before opening day and then service time isn't an issue. Just promote him immediately and hope he grows and wins ROY, even if that's unlikely.

I seriously hope the O's keep all of our top 3 and build around them. That would be 5 studs. You can fill a lineup around that. 

If you were Holliday, how eager would you be to give up/delay your freedom of movement with free agency? Six, seven years is a long time. It’s hard to tell what position the organization will be then. He’s not hurting for money. He can’t drink legally and he’s already earned over $8M. His dad made around $160M. 
 

I think it’s going to be very difficult to sign him long term unless they are willing to give him premium FA AAV in his pre Arb years.

[Ripken]

@Tony-OH  What's your best all-in-system lineup for OD 2025?

 

1 - Holliday - 2B

2 - Rutschman - C

3 - Henderson - SS

4 - Mayo - 3B

5 - Basallo - DH

6 - Kjerstad- LF

7 - Westburg - 1B

8 - Cowser - RF

9 - Bradfield - CF

(Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Horvath)

P - Rodriguez

[interloper]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Basallo is just an exciting player to watch because of the immense power. You know, chicks dig the longball, but so does everyone else!

If Basallo hits his ceiling, he very well may end up the more dynamic offensive player, but let's not get too down on Holliday. We're talking about a 19 year old kid that put up a .442 OBP in 581 PAs across 4 levels of the minor league system. 

Holliday doesn't really wow you with the big home runs, and very well may never end up a big power guy, but he's going to be an absolute OBP machine and has enough speed to be a really good leadoff hitter.

He's good enough defensively too up the middle and I expect him to get better.

So while it's easy to gush over Basallo's bat, and rightfully so, Holliday is the #1 overall for me because of his overall game and the fact he's already in AAA. 

Now if Basallo comes back next season is continues to kill it and improves like he did this year, then we can have that conversation at this time next year.

Yeah Holliday feels a little like Adley in that he's so good overall that it's kind of boring to talk about. Like Adley, he's going to be more of an OBP guy than SLG guy, which also contributes to a less fun-sounding write-up. But yeah this kid is going to be awesome. I mean imagine adding another Adley-style OBP centric bat to this lineup. And then imagine that guy replacing Adam Frazier. Once he gets rolling it's going to be an absolutely stupid top of the lineup.

Edited November 17, 2023 by interloper

[interloper]

I think the odds of Holliday going back to AAA at the end of ST are no more than 50/50. Considering how long he lasted in ST last year, if he's putting up the numbers this ST, I don't really think the O's would hesitate to bring him north. The only real issue is the service time. 

[Pickles]

10 minutes ago, Ripken said:

@Tony-OH  What's your best all-in-system lineup for OD 2025?

 

1 - Holliday - 2B

2 - Rutschman - C

3 - Henderson - SS

4 - Mayo - 3B

5 - Basallo - DH

6 - Kjerstad- LF

7 - Westburg - 1B

8 - Cowser - RF

9 - Bradfield - CF

(Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Horvath)

P - Rodriguez

Weird that anyone would think our best lineup could possibly not have a single one of our regular major league outfielders in it.

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, Ripken said:

@Tony-OH  What's your best all-in-system lineup for OD 2025?

 

1 - Holliday - 2B

2 - Rutschman - C

3 - Henderson - SS

4 - Mayo - 3B

5 - Basallo - DH

6 - Kjerstad- LF

7 - Westburg - 1B

8 - Cowser - RF

9 - Bradfield - CF

(Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Horvath)

P - Rodriguez

Well, you got pretty much all the names right so hard to argue too much with your selections.

I could maybe see Kjerstad at 1B and Beavers or Horvath in RF. I think Westburg and or Ortiz are traded this offseason.