Craig Kimbrel - Signing

[Jagwar]

6 hours ago, sevastras said:

Aren’t CDs what really really really old people put money into? You could just be a hard money lender and your money is backed by real estate and you are earning 10-12%. 

Putting a chunk of money in 2-3 year CDs has been super helpful. I work for an Investment Advisor, and we have put probably $50-100 million dollars into CDs and annuities for clients at 5% or better, very close to 6%. Very smart to take that yield risk free as part of a portfolio. 

[Roy Firestone]

Kimbrel had decent numbers last year but faded badly in the post season. I think this is a 13 million dollar stop gap move if and until Felix returns in 2025...and even then we dont know what he(Felix) will be like...

Edited December 7, 2023 by Roy Firestone

[Hank Scorpio]

2 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Kimbrel had decent numbers last year but faded badly in the post season. I think this is a 13 million dollar stop gap move if and until Felix returns in 2025...and even then we dont know what he(Felix) will be like...

He will be a large human being.

[Number5]

3 hours ago, elextrano8 said:

Per Heyman/MLB Trade Rumors:

Heyman on X

MLB Trade Rumors

If he saves 55+ games, it would be worth the extra million on the buy out, IMO.  In fact, exercising the option probably wouldn't be a bad idea in that case.

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, elextrano8 said:

Per Heyman/MLB Trade Rumors:

Heyman on X

MLB Trade Rumors

These are attainable enough for me to re-label the deal 1/14 for ordinary conversation.

Half a million is just the games even if Cano or Hall goes nuts and becomes Closer in-season.     The other half is finishing, which he's been doing in 40-ish games the last few seasons.

I don't think next winter Craig Kimbrel will be much more marketable at ~1/12 than Anthony Santander is right now, but its insurance if Felix has any kind of a setback.

[Going Underground]

Did move the Orioles WS odds. Soto trade did.

 

Odds to win 2024 World Series *

Atlanta Braves: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Los Angeles Dodgers: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Houston Astros: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Texas Rangers: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
New York Yankees: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
Philadelphia Phillies: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Toronto Blue Jays: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Baltimore Orioles: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)

[Chavez Ravine]

Solid move. But I’m not feeling good if we have to use him in the 7th inning of a wild card game. Age seems to have made his fastball go wild and the power curve go flat at inopportune times.

[Paul in Virginia]

Law's not a fan:

Kimbrel does still strike out a lot of batters, but he’s gone from hovering around 40 percent for most of his career to 31 percent over the past two seasons, without any improvement in his walk rate or how much hard contact he allows. He’s lost over 2 mph on his fastball since 2017 and much of the movement on his out-pitch breaking ball, although both were so good at his peak that they’re still above-average pitches even with their respective declines. He’s got that big save total and the capital-C Closer tag, which still holds some sway in the market, but I didn’t expect this Orioles’ front office to pay any sort of premium for those things.

The Orioles were short a reliever with ace closer Félix Bautista out until 2025 after Tommy John surgery, and adding someone who will primarily work the ninth inning frees up Yennier Cano to work in higher-leverage spots earlier in games. Still, I don’t think this makes the Orioles much better, if at all, and takes up cash that they need to put toward the rotation.

 

How Eduardo Rodriguez, Jeimer Candelario and Craig Kimbrel fit on their new clubs: Law - The Athletic

 

 

[HakunaSakata]

16 minutes ago, Paul in Virginia said:

Law's not a fan:

Kimbrel does still strike out a lot of batters, but he’s gone from hovering around 40 percent for most of his career to 31 percent over the past two seasons, without any improvement in his walk rate or how much hard contact he allows. He’s lost over 2 mph on his fastball since 2017 and much of the movement on his out-pitch breaking ball, although both were so good at his peak that they’re still above-average pitches even with their respective declines. He’s got that big save total and the capital-C Closer tag, which still holds some sway in the market, but I didn’t expect this Orioles’ front office to pay any sort of premium for those things.

The Orioles were short a reliever with ace closer Félix Bautista out until 2025 after Tommy John surgery, and adding someone who will primarily work the ninth inning frees up Yennier Cano to work in higher-leverage spots earlier in games. Still, I don’t think this makes the Orioles much better, if at all, and takes up cash that they need to put toward the rotation.

 

How Eduardo Rodriguez, Jeimer Candelario and Craig Kimbrel fit on their new clubs: Law - The Athletic

 

 

I agree with literally every single word he wrote. 

[dystopia]

26 minutes ago, Paul in Virginia said:

Law's not a fan:

Kimbrel does still strike out a lot of batters, but he’s gone from hovering around 40 percent for most of his career to 31 percent over the past two seasons, without any improvement in his walk rate or how much hard contact he allows. He’s lost over 2 mph on his fastball since 2017 and much of the movement on his out-pitch breaking ball, although both were so good at his peak that they’re still above-average pitches even with their respective declines. He’s got that big save total and the capital-C Closer tag, which still holds some sway in the market, but I didn’t expect this Orioles’ front office to pay any sort of premium for those things.

The Orioles were short a reliever with ace closer Félix Bautista out until 2025 after Tommy John surgery, and adding someone who will primarily work the ninth inning frees up Yennier Cano to work in higher-leverage spots earlier in games. Still, I don’t think this makes the Orioles much better, if at all, and takes up cash that they need to put toward the rotation.

 

How Eduardo Rodriguez, Jeimer Candelario and Craig Kimbrel fit on their new clubs: Law - The Athletic

 

 

Law would criticize the O's if they cured cancer.

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Law would criticize the O's if they cured cancer.

I mean, did he say anything that was wasn't factual? It seems like a pretty fair assessment of a move that's very likely to be the team's "big splash" this offseason. 

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I mean, did he say anything that was wasn't factual? It seems like a pretty fair assessment of a move that's very likely to be the team's "big splash" this offseason. 

I'd rather eat my own diarrhea than read Keith Law. I'm fine with the Kimbrel signing. It's nothing special obviously but it effectively fills a need on this team.

Law has had a vendetta against the O's for years. He has zero credibility. 

[Frobby]

What I take away from Law’s comments is that Kimbrel is not as good as he used to be.  Well, duh.   He’s an adequate one-year stopgap.   Probably better than Kevin Gregg or Jorge Julio.  He’ll lose us a few games and make us nervous in a bunch of others.   Having him is better than not having him if it allows everyone else in the pen to settle into a role that’s a good fit.   

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

 

Law has had a vendetta against the O's for years. He has zero credibility. 

It’s silly to think Law has a vendetta against the Orioles.  He’s a guy who tends to write in a condescending, “I’m the smartest guy in the room” way.   He’s that way with every team. 

[dystopia]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s silly to think Law has a vendetta against the Orioles.  He’s a guy who tends to write in a condescending, “I’m the smartest guy in the room” way.   He’s that way with every team.