Which Helps Most; Improving the Best Players or the Worst Players?

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, SilverRocket said:

I think in baseball, WAR is WAR (at least in a rough sense) and it's cheaper to upgrade a -0.5 WAR to a 1.5 WAR player than a 3 WAR into a 5 WAR. So I see last offseason's plan as improving the floor, since we had a few players who were in below-replacement territory. This also helped protect against injury, when these lower-tier players will get more playing time.

Whether this applies in all cases, I'm not sure. I can imagine a world where the upgrade 1 to 3 WAR is where the heaviest price comes from. But going into 2023 we had some very weak links and upgrading them didn't cost a whole lot.

Not for playoffs.  Especially if you have above average WAR from your 4-5 starters who often don’t start in the playoffs. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If Ohtani comes to the division too then we probably have to deal with giving up Cowser for Cease. 

It’s adorable that you think the answer for a generational talent is Dylan Cease. 

[Just Regular]

The 2019 World Series teams.

On HOU, the top 4 pitchers threw 107 postseason innings, the rest of the roster threw 54.

On WAS, the top 4 pitchers threw 108 postseason innings, the rest of the roster threw 45.

The regular season is 9-10 pitchers and 3-4 streamer spots where 9-10 others platoon to get you to ~1450 IP.      In October, the right four guys take two-thirds.

Is John Means good enough for a gig like that?

[foxfield]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The luck angle isn't just talking about injuries.

It's been well documented that the O's both exceeded their expected win total based on run differential as well as exceeded the expected runs scored.

Neither of those outcomes can be expected to be replicated.

Thanks...My post had nothing to do with expected win total or run differential.  I simply pushed back on the idea that the Orioles were lucky in the health department.  I don't think they were and addressed that in my post.  

As I said, I think they were healthier than a lot of teams, but since they were also younger than most teams that should have been expected.  I think the Orioles health the next couple of years has a better chance of repeating than their record say in one run games...or their batting average with runners in scoring position.

[baltimoriole]

I think players like Bryan Baker and Mike Bauman do more damage than good can be added by a pitcher like Dylan Cease. So addition by subtraction of your worst IMO.

[now]

When it comes to playoffs sometimes the little guys (Rick Dempsey) come up big. I wonder how often? In 68 years of awards (since 1955) I count 16 cases of role players dominating the big stage. I guess that's fair odds, and maybe it doesn't even answer the question of relative contributions to a winning team by floor vs. ceiling players. Anyway, food for thought. Here's my quick list of surprise WS MVPs (including 4 catchers):

1960 Bobby Richardson
1969 Don Clendenon
1972 Gene Tenace
1978 Bucky Dent
1981 Ron Cey
1982 Darrell Porter
1983 Rick Dempsey
1986 Ray Knight
1992 Pat Borders
1998 Scott Brosius
2005 Jermaine Dye
2006 David Eckstein
2010 Edgar Renteria
2011 David Freese
2016 Ben Zobrist
2018 Steve Pearce

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, now said:

When it comes to playoffs sometimes the little guys (Rick Dempsey) come up big. I wonder how often? In 68 years of awards (since 1955) I count 16 cases of role players dominating the big stage. I guess that's fair odds, and maybe it doesn't even answer the question of relative contributions to a winning team by floor vs. ceiling players. Anyway, food for thought. Here's my quick list of surprise WS MVPs (including 4 catchers):

1960 Bobby Richardson 8.1
1969 Don Clendenon 20.0
1972 Gene Tenace 46.8
1978 Bucky Dent 17.5
1981 Ron Cey 53.8
1982 Darrell Porter 40.8
1983 Rick Dempsey 25.1
1986 Ray Knight 13.2
1992 Pat Borders 3.2
1998 Scott Brosius 15.7
2005 Jermaine Dye 20.3
2006 David Eckstein 20.9
2010 Edgar Renteria 32.4
2011 David Freese 18.7
2016 Ben Zobrist 44.5
2018 Steve Pearce 9.9

Some of these guys were very good players.  I’ve listed their career rWARs by their names above.