Which Helps Most; Improving the Best Players or the Worst Players?

[Earl Buck]

Let’s use the Orioles 2023 season as a general case study and compare with a study I learned about via well known journalist and author, Malcolm Gladwell, Revisionist History podcast. (Season 1,  Episode 6, “My Little Hundred Million”. )

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/revisionist-history/id1119389968?i=1000372836942

 

At minute 12:15 or so, Gladwell discusses whether it is a greater help to a sports team if the worst player on the roster is replaced with a better player or if the team brings in an even better player as its top star.  That is, does it help more to strengthen your strongest link or your weakest link?

His conclusion is: It depends on the sport. In basketball one player can dominate the court in offense and defense. So improve your top player. In soccer, a tital team sport improve the weakest player.

 

It set me thinking is baseball a strong link or weak link sport?

 

It seems that in constructing the 2023 roster, Elias, whether intentionally or not, used the improve the weakest links strategy. 

 

Gibson replaced Lyles

McCann replaced Benboom

Frazier replaced Odor. 

Additional improvements occurred with adjusting playing time levels of players in the organization for both 22 and 23. 

The result was a stellar 101 win season!

 

The Orioles 2023 regular season experience suggests that baseball is a strengthen the weakest links sport. 

 

But then the playoffs. The consensus seems to be we lacked the superstar who can carry the team. 

 

It seems that baseball in the playoffs is more of a strong link sport. 

 

So, to put it together, the 2023 Orioles season experience suggests that the regular season is improved with an improve the weak link strategy. While playoffs often need a superstar. 

 

So, if this theory holds true, do the Orioles need to specifically add more proven All Star level players or do we simply depend upon the hope that one of these years we will have a good player get hot at just the right time?

[Sports Guy]

Elite players is what win titles, for the most part.

Get as many elite guys as you can.

Stars and scrubs is and always will be the best way to build a roster (although that name is misleading because scrubs really just means cheap player and cheap player doesn’t mean scrub..but it gets the point across).

[Frobby]

Just copied and pasted your post yo make it legible.

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Let’s use the Orioles 2023 season as a general case study and compare with a study I learned about via well known journalist and author, Malcolm Gladwell, Revisionist History podcast. (Season 1,  Episode 6, “My Little Hundred Million”. )

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/revisionist-history/id1119389968?i=1000372836942

At minute 12:15 or so, Gladwell discusses whether it is a greater help to a sports team if the worst player on the roster is replaced with a better player or if the team brings in an even better player as its top star.  That is, does it help more to strengthen your strongest link or your weakest link?

His conclusion is: It depends on the sport. In basketball one player can dominate the court in offense and defense. So improve your top player. In soccer, a tital team sport improve the weakest player.

It set me thinking is baseball a strong link or weak link sport?

It seems that in constructing the 2023 roster, Elias, whether intentionally or not, used the improve the weakest links strategy. 

Gibson replaced Lyles

McCann replaced Benboom

Frazier replaced Odor. 

Additional improvements occurred with adjusting playing time levels of players in the organization for both 22 and 23. 

The result was a stellar 101 win season!

The Orioles 2023 regular season experience suggests that baseball is a strengthen the weakest links sport. 

But then the playoffs. The consensus seems to be we lacked the superstar who can carry the team. 

It seems that baseball in the playoffs is more of a strong link sport. 

So, to put it together, the 2023 Orioles season experience suggests that the regular season is improved with an improve the weak link strategy. While playoffs often need a superstar. 

So, if this theory holds true, do the Orioles need to specifically add more proven All Star level players or do we simply depend upon the hope that one of these years we will have a good player get hot at just the right time?

[Frobby]

I am more willing to draw conclusions from a 162-game season than from a 3-game playoff series.  However, I suspect there isn’t a one-size fits all answer to the question.   It depends how good your best player/players are, and how bad your weakest links are.  

[Spy Fox]

I think different teams can improve in different ways. Right now, the Orioles have more room to improve by adding elite talent.

The depth on this team is among the best in MLB. There's a lack of major weak links. But there is not as much truly top talent as some teams have. Guys like Rutschman, Henderson, GRod, and the next round of prospects may grow more into that. But we aren't quite there yet. 

[Spy Fox]

For some data on what I wrote above, I looked into this season's fWAR from playoff teams' top five players:

Rangers 23.8, Rays 22.2, Astros 22.0, Orioles 18.9, Jays 18.2, Twins 17.9

Braves 29.9, Dodgers 27.9, Diamondbacks 22.4, Phillies 20.9, Brewers 19.3, Marlins 15.7 

So, in that particular metric, 9th out of the 12 playoff teams in contributions from top talent. And the three that were lower won 84-89 games instead of the O's 101. 

[Moose Milligan]

Improving the pitching. 

[Jim'sKid26]

These conversations always assume perfect health and that is a major flaw. Luck plays a significant role in whether your team stays healthy and a significant injury to an elite player can be devastating. It's one of the things that is not controllable.  The Orioles were, for the most part, rather fortunate with injuries in 2023, The Mountain notwithstanding, I hope they can continue to do so.

 

[foxfield]

22 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

These conversations always assume perfect health and that is a major flaw. Luck plays a significant role in whether your team stays healthy and a significant injury to an elite player can be devastating. It's one of the things that is not controllable.  The Orioles were, for the most part, rather fortunate with injuries in 2023, The Mountain notwithstanding, I hope they can continue to do so.

 

I don’t know that the Orioles were as fortunate as you think. They were certainly healthier than some other teams. But they were younger than almost everyone too. 
 

I would expect to stay slightly healthier than the average team for a few more years but injuries are part of the game. Even for guys on the good side of 30. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I don’t know that the Orioles were as fortunate as you think. They were certainly healthier than some other teams. But they were younger than almost everyone too. 
 

I would expect to stay slightly healthier than the average team for a few more years but injuries are part of the game. Even for guys on the good side of 30. 

The luck angle isn't just talking about injuries.

It's been well documented that the O's both exceeded their expected win total based on run differential as well as exceeded the expected runs scored.

Neither of those outcomes can be expected to be replicated.

[SilverRocket]

I think in baseball, WAR is WAR (at least in a rough sense) and it's cheaper to upgrade a -0.5 WAR to a 1.5 WAR player than a 3 WAR into a 5 WAR. So I see last offseason's plan as improving the floor, since we had a few players who were in below-replacement territory. This also helped protect against injury, when these lower-tier players will get more playing time.

Whether this applies in all cases, I'm not sure. I can imagine a world where the upgrade 1 to 3 WAR is where the heaviest price comes from. But going into 2023 we had some very weak links and upgrading them didn't cost a whole lot.

[dystopia]

I would think improving the worst players. Gives you more depth and with improving bad players, there’s usually more upside. 

[sportsfan8703]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Improving the pitching. 

If Ohtani comes to the division too then we probably have to deal with giving up Cowser for Cease. 

[Just Regular]

The other curveball here in baseball is the regular season and tournament differing substantially with respect to this basic question.

Angels Shohei has been a man in his 20's exerting every ounce of his ability to try and gain tournament entry.

Dodgers Shohei would be a pleasure cruise for a man in his 30's before a week or a month of intense championship competition.

I basically prefer Cole Irvin for SP5 because his "worst player" role will vanish, and Tyler Wells and DL Hall for the bullpen because their hoped for "best player" role will increase.     It is math that baseball has been taken away from Old Hoss Radbourn and Madison Bumgarner and given to Craig Kimbrel and Felix Bautista.

[SteveA]

Seems to me that improving your top players is the way to go because effectively improves multiple spots on the roster:

1) Improve your #1 starting pitcher.   You have improved the #1 spot by improving the #1 spot, by definition.   But the guy who was your #1 before is now your #2, so you have also improved the #2 spot in your rotation.   And the guy who was #2 now your #3, so you have improved the 3 spot in your rotation.   And so on.

2) Same is true for bullpen

3) Same is essentially true for a batting lineup.   The only nuanced difference is if you improve your batting order by bringing in a guy who plays the same position as one of your top hitters, and that previous good hitter is forced to the bench rather than staying in the lineup, then you lose the chain reaction effect that you get in #1 and #2.   (But you also improve your bench).

Simplistic, but that's how it looks to me, as an answer to the original question.