Bloomberg: Carlyle Group/David Rubenstein In Talks To Purchase Orioles

[jdwilde1]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

So they're going to wait until Angelos dies to actually sign the deal?

Then that isn't really a deal with an option to buy.  That's a handshake agreement to make the deal after Peter dies.

If I was Rubenstein, I'd want something in writing that legally enforceable.

I expect that Rubenstein would purchase a minority share with an option to purchase a controlling interest at a later date, which could be upon the death of Peter Angelos.  Although not exactly the same circumstances, Steve Biscotti bought his controlling interest in the Ravens by exercising an option.  Specifically, he purchased 49% of the Ravens in 2000 and then exercised an option to buy the remaining 51% in 2004.  The option price of $325M was already negotiated when the original agreement was reached.  This provided the Ravens with an influx of operating cash and it could be a similar scenario here.

Edited December 8, 2023 by jdwilde1

[Keygans]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It was @Keyganswho made the clarification in the Just a Rumor thread:

“Apparently, we might as well put this rumor to rest for now.   Yes, there is an offer and it is from that group, and they do have an "agreement in place"...BUT....they are waiting for PA to leave us before anything happens.”

Yes this is what I was told, as always take it FWIW.    And the part I mentioned before about the 1 person as the primary person of interest seems to be looking more accurate as well.  Now, let’s hope the part about their indication to spend being accurate if it all goes through! 
 

I do find it odd that JA comes out and denies the whole thing.   There’s no reason for him to do or say anything… unless he’s just being a jackass which is his favorite animal he sees in the mirror…

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Keygans said:

Yes this is what I was told, as always take it FWIW.    And the part I mentioned before about the 1 person as the primary person of interest seems to be looking more accurate as well.  Now, let’s hope the part about their indication to spend being accurate if it all goes through! 
 

I do find it odd that JA comes out and denies the whole thing.   There’s no reason for him to do or say anything… unless he’s just being a jackass which is his favorite animal he sees in the mirror…

I’d assume he was worried it might mess up the lease deal.  

[Satyr3206]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d assume he was worried it might mess up the lease deal.  

I sure hope any Angelos isn't involved in the development deal if the team is sold. That might be a nightmare.

[Oriolesfan1988]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d assume he was worried it might mess up the lease deal.  

It already has from the outside. Looks like legislature prefer the land be outside of the lease. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Oriolesfan1988

[dystopia]

54 minutes ago, Keygans said:

Yes this is what I was told, as always take it FWIW.    And the part I mentioned before about the 1 person as the primary person of interest seems to be looking more accurate as well.  Now, let’s hope the part about their indication to spend being accurate if it all goes through! 
 

I do find it odd that JA comes out and denies the whole thing.   There’s no reason for him to do or say anything… unless he’s just being a jackass which is his favorite animal he sees in the mirror…

I’m sure he’s just trying to put fans’ minds at ease. He knows how much we’d hate to see him go. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

Here is the thing.  And this will never happen but if I am Angelos and I am going to sell the team?  I 1000% do this.  Sign Ohtani to a 5 year contract for $xxx...or at least try to.

 

First of all, since you are selling the team you will not pay for most of the contract. 

 

But secondly, Ohtani is a HUGE draw for Asian Americans and will increase the market cap of your team by I am guessing $400 M to $700 M.    When my wife and I went to the Orioles Angels game last Sept I am guessing at least 1/3 of the crowd was there to see him.  Maybe more.  I saw so many Asians there it was crazy.  Which was great btw as my wife is a hot Asian and many of the Asians there were women. 

 

Anyway the point is, of course overall there are more Asians located in Orange county CA compared to Baltimore, but if you add the surrounding DC and NYC area?   I bet it is pretty comparable.  Not only is the crowd attendance going to go up but so will the publicity.  And that makes the value of the team go up.

 

If I am PA I try and do this 100%.

[WarehouseChatter]

29 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

First of all, since you are selling the team you will not pay for most of the contract. 

 

It doesn’t work that way. His cost would impact the valuation. Now it might be offset by the expected revenue benefit over time,  but that is hard to quantify. Believe me, a $500k contract will be considered in the valuation.

Edited December 9, 2023 by WarehouseChatter

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

I’m sure he’s just trying to put fans’ minds at ease. He knows how much we’d hate to see him go. 

The possibility of John Angelos doing more kegstands after O's reach the playoffs again is what motivates me to get up every morning.  That and his well timed statements about ticket prices needing to rise.

[Sports Guy]

I believe these rumors more than I believe Angelos.

[ThomasTomasz]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's pretty insulting to Dan, whom I did have issues with, to call the team under his leadership "in the Stone age".  Dude did what he could.  Contrary to what some folks like to think the Analytics program under Dan wasn't an empty office and the farm was not bereft of talent.

You don't need to tear someone down to make someone else look good.

I also think you pulled that top 10% figure out of thin air.

It was an organizational philosophy going back to the Mike Hargrove era, where the focus was solely on the MLB roster, and ignoring the infrastructure of the club.

You look at our farm system over that same time, and it’s pretty bad.  We almost lucked into our competitive window.  We did great with Manny and Adam anchoring a strong offense, but our inability to develop starting pitching let us down.  Jake Arrieta developed into a TORP with the Cubs.  Gausman took a couple stops to develop into that guy.  Britton and Matusz failed as starters before becoming valuable bullpen guys for a time.  Tillman was up and down, and of course, Bundy ultimately flamed out, as did Sedlock who we spent a first round pick under.  Thats a lot of assets spent on pitchers, for not a lot of return.

I actually like DD and I thought he did great given what he had.  I supported him coming in and wanting to delve into the international market, and he even brought in a well-respected scout.  But, Peter didnt want to do business that way.  Peter also kept a bunch of guys in the front office/development system who had been there for a while, who were former Orioles, who contributed to the long list of failed prospects.  

DD absolutely excelled on the waiver wire.  He brought in Miguel Gonzalez who filled a valuable mid-rotation role.  He filled out the bullpen salvaging Brad Brach and turning Givens from a failed SS prospect into a reliever.  He also made good one-year pick ups like Cruz and Trumbo.  When Toronto wanted to poach him, I was all over the forum I was on at the time saying it would be a huge mistake to let him go.  Even getting Angelos to give a lengthy contract to Ubaldo and Cobb should be considered a win, even though they picked lousy on the specific players.

As far as the analytics department, Sarah Gelles has had quite a five year run since leaving us.  I think she had only a handful of employees in that department (I want to say 5, but it might be 10) and we didn’t renew her deal when Elias brought Mejdal in.  She went to the Astros and turned that opportunity into AGM this off-season with Pittsburgh.  But the department was the smallest in baseball, and very underfunded.  Her career is absolute proof that we could’ve had a shining star without Mejdal, but we didn’t give her the resources. 

I couldn’t give you an exact figure for that.  But I follow a lot of prospect outlets/talking heads as an avid fantasy baseball player for deep 20-30 team leagues.  Prospects Live and Baseball America folks gush over Orioles prospects, and talk about this system in the same breath as the Rays and Dodgers.  Two guys who used to be with Fangraphs- Eric Cross and Chris Clegg- are also huge proponents of the farm system. Even Keith Law, who long ranked our farm system in the bottom five, has finally come around to it.  It isn’t just the top level of prospects, either.  They’re extremely impressed with the talent top to bottom, as well as the people working in the system.  

[Can_of_corn]

Nice post.

But you didn't say anything that makes me think that overall the O's were "In the stone age".  Behind, sure I'll give you behind.  I'll even give you stone age in the International scene.

You talk of the farm, let's look at the 2023 roster and see who was added during Dan's drafts.  Feel free to chime in if I make a mistake.

Mountcastle (sup first), Hays (3rd), Mullins (13th), Hall (1-21), Means (11th), and Rodriguez(1-11).

No top 10 picks.

I think maybe Dan was pretty decent at drafting.

[Billy F-Face3]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

By the way, I’d wager that Rubenstein is very well acquainted with the Lerner family and could probably figure out a way to resolve the MASN mess once and for all.   
 

Probably true. One of the ways Billionaires become Billionaires, is by leveraging relationships with people who have a similarly colossal ambition.

[Billy F-Face3]

16 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

As much as I'd not like to agree with @Billy F-Face3about a lot of things, I do agree with his above post that JA can take credit for hiring Elias...and allowing Elias to do pretty much everything he wanted to do, especially establishing an international scouting presence which is something that didn't exist under his dad.

If anyone wants to be honest here (I question that sometimes) when it comes to JA, it's usually something like "Yeah, he hired Elias, whatever," and they move on to whatever issue JA has ensnared himself in at the moment, probably something like giving a stupid interview like he did time and time again throughout 2023.  

But if Elias is one of the best things that's happened to this franchise, then JA needs to be recognized for hiring him.  And retaining him thus far.  Hiring and retaining good people isn't easy in any industry, especially in one like Major League Baseball.  @Bemorewinsyou can't look at the last two seasons we've had, the amount of talent we have in the system and say that he's run this franchise into the ground.  That's being intentionally obtuse.

I get it, a lot of people here are hammers and all they see is nails, especially when it comes to all things Angelos.  It's easy to bash them at every given turn because they've given us a lot of material to work with over the years but with JA it hasn't all been bad.  He nailed the most important part of his stewardship of the franchise, everyone should be able to agree on that.

That doesn't mean I don't think that JA is a tone deaf trouser-snake cheapskate, I absolutely do think those things.  He's terrible in front of the media, a microphone and a camera are his worst enemies.  His cries about having to raise prices if they want to spend money on talent are stupid.  He does strike me as someone who was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple, which is obnoxious.  While I give him a lot of credit for hiring Elias, I am absolutely thrilled at the prospect of the Orioles being sold and the Angelos family going away like a fart in the wind.

Very good post. I like your pragmatism and honesty.

[Billy F-Face3]

9 hours ago, UMDTerrapins said:

IIRC, part of the previous rumor was that a $1.1B offer was increased to $1.4B. If that was an increase over a previously agreeable sale price to fully cover the cap gains implications of a sale prior to PA's passing, in order to facilitate an "immediate" sale, it is a possibility. If I was trying to buy the Orioles for example, I would be willing to pay a little more now to lock down the purchase immediately. First off, who knows how long PA will be around? How much might the eventual price escalate by waiting? How much opportunity cost are you losing by waiting? What other buyers might emerge in the future? Will the value go up if the O's win a World Series in the meantime? We just have no idea what's really happening with the Angelos family and any prospective buyers at this point. But an eventual sale seems inevitable, and entirely possible to happen at any time. Probably not as soon as most of us would prefer, which would be today. 

I like the way you think. That could be a possibility. Something else I keep thinking about is that Angelos hired Goldman Sachs to evaluate the value of the franchise 1 year ago. If I can use a metaphor here... All of this leads me to believe that the smoke is getting hotter and could soon become a flame. From rumor to reality...

https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/orioles-reportedly-hired-goldman-sachs-to-assess-sale/