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MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread


ThisIsBirdland

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve literally never heard of her.  

She has a sister too. Between the 2 of them, they have a good following on twitter but as soon as you argue with them, no matter how ridiculous their points are, they block you and scream misogyny.  I have never followed them or anything like that but I would see stuff every once in a while and I used to frequently see people complaining about them doing stuff like that.

 

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If you were Elias, and new Red Sox GM Craig Breslow yesterday before closing with Atlanta offered the opportunity to win the Chris Sale bidding with Westburg or Ortiz, would you have done it?

I assume as a 2002 Yale teammate of Elias, Breslow would have had the Whiffenpoofs whip up the trade offer in a preppy musical form.

Vaughn Grissom 1.5.2001 drew a $350k bonus out of high school, and has an .884 OPS in 1250 minor league PA

Jordan Westburg 2.18.1999 drew a $2.4M bonus out of college, and has an .877 OPS in 1250 minor league PA

Joey Ortiz 7.14.1998 drew a $450k bonus out of college, and has an .806 OPS in 1200 minor league PA.    He seems the clear best glove here, though in Boston Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer have roles similar to Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday for the long term.

Grissom has a 105-100 OPS+ lead on Westburg in the first 200 MLB PA for both of them, though Grissom lost a 2023 job to Orlando "Adam Frazier" Arcia.

Grissom figures to be a starting player in competition with the Orioles for the next batch of AL East championships.

Sale is 18 months older than Gerrit Cole, and still has him by 7 career WAR, though his days of greatness are further behind him.

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1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

If you were Elias, and new Red Sox GM Craig Breslow yesterday before closing with Atlanta offered the opportunity to win the Chris Sale bidding with Westburg or Ortiz, would you have done it?

I assume as a 2002 Yale teammate of Elias, Breslow would have had the Whiffenpoofs whip up the trade offer in a preppy musical form.

Vaughn Grissom 1.5.2001 drew a $350k bonus out of high school, and has an .884 OPS in 1250 minor league PA

Jordan Westburg 2.18.1999 drew a $2.4M bonus out of college, and has an .877 OPS in 1250 minor league PA

Joey Ortiz 7.14.1998 drew a $450k bonus out of college, and has an .806 OPS in 1200 minor league PA.    He seems the clear best glove here, though in Boston Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer have roles similar to Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday for the long term.

Grissom has a 105-100 OPS+ lead on Westburg in the first 200 MLB PA for both of them, though Grissom lost a 2023 job to Orlando "Adam Frazier" Arcia.

Grissom figures to be a starting player in competition with the Orioles for the next batch of AL East championships.

Sale is 18 months older than Gerrit Cole, and still has him by 7 career WAR, though his days of greatness are further behind him.

Is it just me or is there a sudden trend of GMs being former players?

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A Sons of Sam Horn poster had the 2025 Chris Sale option details.      BOS sending $17mm to effectively make 2024 Chris Sale a 1/10 obligation for Atlanta.

The Baseball Trade Values readout on Sale at 1/27 was underwater, making his trade value essentially "worse than worthless", so it isn't unreasonable to frame this somewhat as the Red Sox buying Vaughn Grissom for ~$20mm.      The SoSH crew seems pumped this opens the roster for Jordan Montgomery.

Its been notable to me during the Winter Meetings and since how the Morosi types also throw in the detail "Jordan Montgomery is living in Boston this offseason".    Nobody is telling me where Cody Bellinger or Blake Snell are living.

Atlanta holds an option to keep Sale in 2025 for $20M.

Per Spotrac, the cost of that option gets a bump up if:

  • 2025 Option Escalator (2023, 2024 Cy Young)
    $2.5M for 1st
    $1.5M for 2nd or 3rd
    $1M for 4th or 5th
    $500,000 for 6th-10th


Also, Spotrac indicates the option will vest if:

  • 2025 Vesting Option ($5M deferred to 2040)
    vests with a Top 10 finish in 2024 Cy Young + healthy
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10 hours ago, Just Regular said:

If you were Elias, and new Red Sox GM Craig Breslow yesterday before closing with Atlanta offered the opportunity to win the Chris Sale bidding with Westburg or Ortiz, would you have done it?

I assume as a 2002 Yale teammate of Elias, Breslow would have had the Whiffenpoofs whip up the trade offer in a preppy musical form.

Vaughn Grissom 1.5.2001 drew a $350k bonus out of high school, and has an .884 OPS in 1250 minor league PA

Jordan Westburg 2.18.1999 drew a $2.4M bonus out of college, and has an .877 OPS in 1250 minor league PA

Joey Ortiz 7.14.1998 drew a $450k bonus out of college, and has an .806 OPS in 1200 minor league PA.    He seems the clear best glove here, though in Boston Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer have roles similar to Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday for the long term.

Grissom has a 105-100 OPS+ lead on Westburg in the first 200 MLB PA for both of them, though Grissom lost a 2023 job to Orlando "Adam Frazier" Arcia.

Grissom figures to be a starting player in competition with the Orioles for the next batch of AL East championships.

Sale is 18 months older than Gerrit Cole, and still has him by 7 career WAR, though his days of greatness are further behind him.

Short answer on Sale: no. Because he will opt out after next season so he's only a one year guy. And if he doesn't opt out it means he was bad or injured again. Too much risk here. 

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23 hours ago, Just Regular said:

.  .  .

Its been notable to me during the Winter Meetings and since how the Morosi types also throw in the detail "Jordan Montgomery is living in Boston this offseason".    Nobody is telling me where Cody Bellinger or Blake Snell are living.

.  .  .

Jordan Montgomery's wife is a doctor, and she's apparently doing a residency in Boston.  https://www.nj.com/yankees/2023/11/ex-yankees-pitcher-and-free-agent-target-moves-to-boston.html  I'm guessing that they thought it would be nice to spend the off-season together.

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39 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Chris Sale is not a good pitcher anymore. Why Atlanta was interested is a mystery to me.

There's no chance I'd want to give up the prospect talent we have for a pitcher like Chris Sale who's best part if his career is long in the past.

Sale is fine when healthy.

It's a move made for the playoffs.

They didn't give up anything that mattered to them.

It's the type a move a team going for a ring makes.

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39 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Chris Sale is not a good pitcher anymore. Why Atlanta was interested is a mystery to me.

I, respectfully, disagree with your first sentence. He was recovering from an injury and surgery. While he was not as effective as he once was, he is still an effective pitcher. He is likely to pitch even better in 2024 if healthy.

Here's a good answer to your second sentence/question. https://theathletic.com/5170577/2023/12/30/law-chris-sale-trade-atlanta-boston/

"Sale underwent Tommy John surgery before the 2020 season, then threw just 48.1 innings in 2021-22 before bouncing back to make 20 starts last year, throwing 102.2 innings with a 4.30 ERA/3.80 FIP and a promising 29 percent strikeout rate. That put him at 1.7 rWAR/2.1 fWAR, and Atlanta would probably be pleased if it got that kind of production from him and also had him starting games in October, especially since it’s paying only a portion of the $27.5 million he’s owed. The Braves have enough bodies to fill out a rotation even if Sale needs time off."

The bolded aspect of that statement needs emphasis. Atlanta is playing the long game here and thinks that their starting pitching is solid but not spectacular. Sale for 4-5 innings to start a playoff game, when you have that offense, is likely to be a huge advantage. Keep him healthy for October and roll the dice.

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Its fun to watch the Dodgers and Braves circle each other.     I basically expect Sale to be back in the Hader role he began his career in if Strider, Fried and Morton are okay in October.     

ATL got good use out of Closer Mode John Smoltz as he was going down the back of the mountain long ago.

Sale may have to plunk Bryce Harper here or there as they try to get that monkey off their backs.

 

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