Framber Valdez vs everyone else

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I'm sure the SSS last year in Baltimore left a bad taste in all of our mouths, but the 107 Ks in AAA did too. He was a 2 true outcomes type of guy last year, and I worry that his approach won't translate to the majors. He had one game in the AAA playoffs last year that was really terrible. That said, I did read @Tony-OH's write-up on him, so I still like Cowser as a prospect. I just don't think he's so awesome that he needs to be protected against a trade like the top 3. 

As hitters go, I really want this team building around Gunnar, Adley, Holliday, Basallo and Mayo. Kjerstad is next for me, but not untouchable. After that I think we have a lot of guys that we can use to fill in a great lineup.

That's fair.  But it's been pointed out time and time again that Cowser has needed time to adjust at every level.  The majors won't be different.  But I get it, a lot of people here preach patience but don't want to be patient.  It's an OH specialty  

If pressed, I'd agree that he's not as valuable as the others, but IMO that's based on his position and not necessarily his bat.  Mayo looks to be a true slugger that can play 3rd, Adley's rare because he's a catcher who can hit, Gunnar and Holliday are true up the middle talents.  I don't rate Cowser as high because he's a corner outfielder (some will argue that he can play CF, though).  

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Huh?  Are we talking about the same player?

His exit velo and HH% numbers are poor and have been. 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/framber-valdez-664285?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Whoops

 

[BRobinsonfan]

4 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think Valdez has some major red flags in his pitching profile and he's not quite the white whale that you're making him out to be. He doesn't miss enough bats and he routinely outperforms his underlying numbers. And my guess is that we would have to pay more for him than the other SPs who are supposedly on the trading block. I think I'd rather have Burnes, Cease, and maybe even Luzardo (mostly because he's so much younger). Valdez feels a lot like Johnny Cueto 2.0 to me and Cueto fell off pretty hard in his 30s.

What constitutes “missing enough bats” for a starter? He averaged 9.1 KO's per game, he had a better WHIP, ERA+ and FIP than Cease did last year, gave up fewer hits per 9 (7.5 vs. 8.7) than Cease. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Whoops

 

Don’t get me wrong..there is good stuff. you pointed out things. Tommy pointed out things. He keeps the ball on the ground. 
 

Im not trying to say he’s garbage but I see people on here (but more throughout social media) and when they saw this report, you would think the Os have a chance to get Clemens in his prime and that all the other trade candidates pale in comparison to him and that’s just false.

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm sure the SSS last year in Baltimore left a bad taste in all of our mouths, but the 107 Ks in AAA did too. He was a 2 true outcomes type of guy last year, and I worry that his approach won't translate to the majors. He had one game in the AAA playoffs last year that was really terrible. That said, I did read @Tony-OH's write-up on him, so I still like Cowser as a prospect. I just don't think he's so awesome that he needs to be protected against a trade like the top 3. 

As hitters go, I really want this team building around Gunnar, Adley, Holliday, Basallo and Mayo. Kjerstad is next for me, but not untouchable. After that I think we have a lot of guys that we can use to fill in a great lineup.

Yeah this is where I'm at. Also, even in a small sample, sometimes a guy looks like he belongs and sometimes he doesn't. Just body language type stuff. Kjerstad looked the part and Cowser looked like the game got on top of him. Doesn't mean he won't be a great MLer eventually! Just saying. It's more than the 2 home runs from Kjerstad. He confirmed the things I thought about him and Cowser did the same. Now we will see what round 2 looks like for each player. 

Edited December 20, 2023 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

Just now, BRobinsonfan said:

What constitutes “missing enough bats” for a starter? He averaged 9.1 KO's per game, he had a better WHIP, ERA+ and FIP than Cease did last year, gave up fewer hits per 9 (7.5 vs. 8.7) than Cease. 

He’s below average at missing bats.

You do like that he is still getting enough Ks but there’s a lot of guys putting the ball in play. You can have a lot of bad luck when that’s the case.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Don’t get me wrong..there is good stuff. you pointed out things. Tommy pointed out things. He keeps the ball on the ground. 
 

Im not trying to say he’s garbage but I see people on here (but more throughout social media) and when they saw this report, you would think the Os have a chance to get Clemens in his prime and that all the other trade candidates pale in comparison to him and that’s just false.

That's true, we agree on that, too.  

I think a bit of that has to do with he's coming from a team that's a perennial winner and he's had some really great moments on the big stage.   If he were coming from a team like the Pirates, I think excitement might be tempered a little bit.

 

 

[BRobinsonfan]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s below average at missing bats.

You do like that he is still getting enough Ks but there’s a lot of guys putting the ball in play. You can have a lot of bad luck when that’s the case.

Not trying to be obtuse here, but according to Baseball Savant he has a chase % of 50, a whiff% of 56 and K% of 60. All average or above. How are you measuring “missing bats?” I do agree that he's not Clemens in his prime and at 30 years of age he's most likely to begin slipping. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Not trying to be obtuse here, but according to Baseball Savant he has a chase % of 50, a whiff% of 56 and K% of 60. All average or above. How are you measuring “missing bats?” I do agree that he's not Clemens in his prime and at 30 years of age he's most likely to begin slipping. 

Actually, I thought I saw his whiff% was in the 40s

He’s right about average. His swing stR% right around average. Same with the shift percentage. 
 

Either way, he doesn’t miss enough bats for me especially when talking about total cost.

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

1.069 WHIP … 200 Ks in 193 innings, consistent 6.6 Hit per game. 28/32/32 starts over 3 seasons. I don’t see the problem! 

His 2021 stats were other worldly and looking like a slight outlier.  He hasn’t put up those same crazy numbers but his stuff is arguably the best in baseball.  He will have a lot of success moving forward and if we were able to land him it would be incredible. 

[LookinUp]

58 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah this is where I'm at. Also, even in a small sample, sometimes a guy looks like he belongs and sometimes he doesn't. Just body language type stuff. Kjerstad looked the part and Cowser looked like the game got on top of him. Doesn't mean he won't be a great MLer eventually! Just saying. It's more than the 2 home runs from Kjerstad. He confirmed the things I thought about him and Cowser did the same. Now we will see what round 2 looks like for each player. 

In support of Moose's position, I also believe in two things pretty strongly:

1. It does take time to transition to a new level. 
2. The offseason is when you really get to focus on your flaws from the last year. It's not that you don't in-season, but I'm a huge believer in what hard work can do in the offseason.

Cowser's a really nice prospect. If his OBP and power translate somewhat closely to the majors, he's a guy we want around for a long time. 

It's just a handicap for an organization that won't do free agency. We are almost forced to trade good players to acquire other good players. So you just have to make those hard choices, a point about which I'm sure most of us agree.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, BRobinsonfan said:

What constitutes “missing enough bats” for a starter? He averaged 9.1 KO's per game, he had a better WHIP, ERA+ and FIP than Cease did last year, gave up fewer hits per 9 (7.5 vs. 8.7) than Cease. 

I don't think the Orioles are trading for Cease if they think he's the pitcher he was last season. They're trading for him if they think he can get back to where he was in 2022 or even 2021 when he was only giving up 130ish hits. Also, even last season Cease's K% was 27.3% versus Valdez's which was 24.4%. And again, Cease is younger and very likely cheaper. 

[interloper]

28 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

In support of Moose's position, I also believe in two things pretty strongly:

1. It does take time to transition to a new level. 
2. The offseason is when you really get to focus on your flaws from the last year. It's not that you don't in-season, but I'm a huge believer in what hard work can do in the offseason.

Cowser's a really nice prospect. If his OBP and power translate somewhat closely to the majors, he's a guy we want around for a long time. 

It's just a handicap for an organization that won't do free agency. We are almost forced to trade good players to acquire other good players. So you just have to make those hard choices, a point about which I'm sure most of us agree.

I agree with all that!

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's true, we agree on that, too.  

I think a bit of that has to do with he's coming from a team that's a perennial winner and he's had some really great moments on the big stage.   If he were coming from a team like the Pirates, I think excitement might be tempered a little bit.

 

 

Judging someone on their "big moments" seems as silly was valuing pitchers based on their win totals. Who's to say other players, if given the opportunity, wouldn't also have big moments? 

[maybenxtyr]

6 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Not me …

 

 

Well, he performed poorly in the post season ….his last 5 starts …. Didn’t go over 5.1 IP and only completed 5 twice …. He gave up 6, 3, 5, 4, and 3 over that span. Those performances were very Flaherty like. 

If it’s a free agent it’s Snell …. Trade Burnes and an extension. No reason not to spend now.

Burnes just said that he really isn't interested in a trade and sign type of situation. He's going to be a FA unless someone drastically overpays for him.