This offseason will tell us a lot about Elias

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What about the foreign pitcher Naoyuki Uwasawa?  We were linked to him at some point early this offseason.  His posting window ends on Jan 11th at 5 pm.  

They aren’t and doesn’t sound like ever were interested.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, that's what I'm saying.  My point is that's exactly what teams will do when they start to feel like they can no longer wait for a specific player no matter how ideal he might be. 

And that can happen at any time.  Heck maybe the best offer he was going to get is already off the table?

[Sports Guy]

Waiting until the deadline assumes we will be in position to make a trade.

[Jim'sKid26]

14 minutes ago, deward said:

I said it last year and I still think it holds true - there will never be a better moment for Elias to take a big swing at a championship than the early part of this contending window. He might never be able to fully replicate this influx of young, cheap talent rising up from the minors all around the same time. This confluence of overflowing talent and low payroll might be a once in a generation opportunity, and he needs to capitalize on it. That isn't a call to be reckless, but I haven't seen him show yet that he can be aggressive, and calculated aggression should be the order of the day. He needs to channel his inner-Dave Dombrowski for a few months. It would be a crying shame if Elias misses out because he's too cautious to roll the dice (or too hamstrung by the owner).

This ^^^^^ in spades. Well said. 

All the hand wringing in the world will not win you a championship. Cease may not be the right move. Valdez might not be available. I get all of that. But fortune favors the brave. Not doing something that you clearly need to do, make the team better, is an error of omission. 

[interloper]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Waiting until the deadline assumes we will be in position to make a trade.

I think it makes more sense for the White Sox to wait for the deadline. They can see if Cease is a Cy Young again. If so, they get the deal they've wanted and more. If not, well that's the risk you take. 

The Orioles won't wait until the deadline. They will grab somebody. And then also hope to add at the deadline as well. 

[Morgan423]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We also can't judge Elias if the CWS are overvaluing Cease and/or expect us to pay an "orioles" tax.  "Orioles" tax meaning that we have a loaded farm system, and that we are desperate to make a move.  Therefore we should overpay for Cease rather than just pay regular value.  

 

I could see us doing a trade for Cease, with Cease being market-valued.  I could even see us trading for Cease with a small ~10% or 15% premium in value tossed Chicago's way, to get them to close the deal.

But the CWS were being absolutely ridiculous on their demands to us and other teams last year, and at the start of the off season. 

I thought that they were posturing and asking high to start off negotiations strongly, but they obviously haven't come back to anywhere near the land of realism regarding Cease.  They still have him and haven't pulled the trigger with anyone, despite the fact that it'll do them zero good to have him head a patchwork rotation during the next two clear rebuilding seasons. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

I could see us doing a trade for Cease, with Cease being market-valued.  I could even see us trading for Cease with a small ~10% or 15% premium in value tossed Chicago's way, to get them to close the deal.

But the CWS were being absolutely ridiculous on their demands to us and other teams last year, and at the start of the off season. 

I thought that they were posturing and asking high to start off negotiations strongly, but they obviously haven't come back to anywhere near the land of realism regarding Cease.  They still have him and haven't pulled the trigger with anyone, despite the fact that it'll do them zero good to have him head a patchwork rotation during the next two clear rebuilding seasons. 

The rumor I remember hearing last deadline is that the CWS were asking for Jackson Holliday in a trade.  So maybe they've come down on that to Mayo/Basallo.  That seems to be the likely scenario.  If Cowser or Kjerstad were good enough to headline the trade, then I think it would've happened.  

[ThisIsBirdland]

9 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

I could see us doing a trade for Cease, with Cease being market-valued.  I could even see us trading for Cease with a small ~10% or 15% premium in value tossed Chicago's way, to get them to close the deal.

But the CWS were being absolutely ridiculous on their demands to us and other teams last year, and at the start of the off season. 

I thought that they were posturing and asking high to start off negotiations strongly, but they obviously haven't come back to anywhere near the land of realism regarding Cease.  They still have him and haven't pulled the trigger with anyone, despite the fact that it'll do them zero good to have him head a patchwork rotation during the next two clear rebuilding seasons. 

It can't be said enough: they don't have to make a move on January 3rd.

[Safelykept]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

We all know Elias has absolutely done a fantastic job in rebuilding this organization from the ground up. With the Orioles coming off a 101-win season but a sweep in the playoffs to a white hot Rangers team, Elias knows this team needs one more legitimate veteran starting pitcher. 

We also know that Elias now has a lot of depth in the upper minor leagues with major league ready prospects. They are literally backed up with Connor Norby (2B/LF), Colton Cowser (RF/LF/CF), Heston Kjerstad (RF/DH), Joey Ortiz (SS/2B/3B), Kyle Stowers (RF/DH) all with 330 or more AAA PAs with success. Coby Mayo (267 PAs, 3B/1B/RF) and Jackson Holliday (2B/SS) are also pretty close or ready despite less AAA PAs. 

So with this in mind, if Elias is unable or unwilling to part with his prospect depth for this needed starting pitcher, it will tell us how he wants to build teams. We've heard the stories of Sig Mejdal wanting to hoard prospects, and hoard them Elias has done so far trading only Darell Hernaiz (who was a #15-#20 level prospect in the org) out of his top 30 prospects. 

After winning 101 games last year, he may look at his current options and feel decent, especially after he won 101 games with them minus Kyle Gibson (who did win 15-games). Now he barely got anything from John Means last year so he may be thinking he's the Gibson replacement. That could be true, but Means made all of four starts last year before getting shut down for the season with shoulder pain after coming off Tommy John. Means will be 31-years old next year and it's unknown really what he will be able to provide.

So going into 2024, he can pencil in Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kramer into his rotation. If you want to pencil in Means, then fine, that's 4 guys.

That leaves Tyler Wells (who has never pitched more than 119.1 innings in any professional season) and Cole Irvin in the battle for the 5th starter. Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich are the AAA depth starters that could weigh in at some point as well.

Maybe he believes that's enough depth if he can't get the right deal for a starter like Cease or Valdez. Maybe he's right, I don't know, but what we will know if he doesn't make any significant trades is that he values prospect depth more than he values trading for legitimate major league veteran players.

The Orioles did win 101 games last year after an offseason that seemed disappointing at the time. I have little doubt that Elias knows more about building his team than I do, so I'm not saying he's wrong or not, but I do think we will know more about how he plans to build his team each year after this offseason.

He has the prospects, he has his needs, and now we will see what he does to set up his 2024 squad to be a legitimate World Series contender.

Elias Definitely knows more than this entire board and you know a lot but I would pencil Means, so lets go get one more. Youre right whats already here is easy, but to get better they have to take risk it goes with being good. This is not 2,3,4 years ago where you  find upgrades off the waiver or   Rule 5 To get better Today is going to cost and its hard.

[deward]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The rumor I remember hearing last deadline is that the CWS were asking for Jackson Holliday in a trade.  So maybe they've come down on that to Mayo/Basallo.  That seems to be the likely scenario.  If Cowser or Kjerstad were good enough to headline the trade, then I think it would've happened.  

I wouldn't be offering Cowser or Kjerstad either. I think they both have future roles on this team without ready replacements right behind them. If something like Ortiz/Povich/+ isn't enough to get it done, then it wouldn't get done, were it my call. 

[Malike]

I hope he goes to Seattle and we get one of their pitchers. I prefer them to Cease in nearly every way.

[Too Tall]

I think there is a new Elias' plan immerging as we watch. To me, the Holt move indicates the desire for an even stronger emphasis on developing pitching. That, along with the recent draft and international signs, "grow the arms - buy the bats?" With the cost/risk of buying arms versus bats it makes sense. Phase two - develop pitching. Tis what the Rays do.

We have the bats now to trade for the arm(s) we need to cover the gap. We should also have the money ......

There is risk either way. Personally, I'd rather buy (FA) an arm to cover this year plus and perhaps use surplus bats to acquire (trade for) more pitching prospects/depth for Holt and Company to work with. 

We already bought one.  Let's go for at least two! Look, we are assuming our returning 2023 pitchers will replacate or improve on the best of themselves in 2024. Maybe - maybe not. We also can't assume one pitcher aka Cease or the like will get us to the WS. I think we need to get another mid-tier starter now without doing something stupid re prospects and then see where we are in July. And I think/hope Elias will do that. If not, this is still a great team to root for!

[Satyr3206]

I have no inside knowledge but Cease has been on the market for a while and no Team has given up what the CWS want. That tells me about what they are asking for. Part of me want them to be stuck with him for the next 2 years.

[Safelykept]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I still don't think he trades prospects until the deadline this summer.  He's going to wait to see how well this team as currently constructed is performing before pulling the trigger, IMO.  

I don't know what good that'll do.  I don't know what good it'll do to stash a guy like Ortiz in the minors again, keep Stowers down, etc.  Maybe he's thinking that if these guys have great seasons in the minors they'll beef up their trade value even more over the summer and he'll be able to nab that starter he's looking for at the deadline.

I think there might be some smaller moves on the horizon for the rest of the offseason but he addressed a big need with the Kimbrel 1 year stopgap move.  I still don't think he trades significant prospect capital until the deadline.

A Stowers great season in the Minors? whats that worth DJ Stewart 4 years ago. Stowers trade value is next to nothing< Ortiz is a legit UTL infielder right now Depending on what happens with trades , Mateo Urias he just might wind up somebody 26 man roster Stowes wont

[24fps]

47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And that can happen at any time.  Heck maybe the best offer he was going to get is already off the table?

It can, but it hasn't.  All I'm saying is that if Cease isn't traded within the next two weeks, the advantage begins to shift away from the White Sox because interested teams will start moving on to plan B. 

You can only know if the best offer has already come and gone is in hindsight and obviously Getz doesn't think it has.  In his place I wouldn't either.