Lazardo is my choice

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Warehouse said:

I don’t think Santander is a premium trade chip by any means, but he does have surplus value.  

Teoscar Hernandez just signed a 1 year deal for ~$20 million PV.  Hernandez was good for 1.8 fWAR in 2023 and Steamer projects him for 1.9 in 2024.  Santander was good for 2.6 fWAR in 2023 and is projected for 2.1 in 2024.

Santander is more mediocre than poor in right field and has shown that he can also effectively play first base.  He provides flexibility as a switch hitter strong from both sides of the plate.  He is a top notch clubhouse presence and brings 30+ home run potential. He’s two years younger than Hernandez.

Great post. Agree fully. 

That said, it's a specific team/scenario that would want to trade for one year of Santander. He's definitely got value, but he's not a fit for a lot of teams. 

[Aristotelian]

Luzardo would be great but targeting any specific player is a poor strategy. If real GM's did that, you would end up with no leverage and getting fleeced. IMO we should be exploring options and evaluating on a case by case basis for cost. I would be disappointed if we do nothing but sometimes less is more if we don't like the deals that are on the table.

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Of course you would, because it would be even more ridiculously lopsided (in our favor) than the original trade that was suggested. Any trade for Luzardo would have to include Mayo or Basallo as the headliner.

And yes Santander has very little trade value despite what you think. He's a mediocre\poor defender, who's older, only under contract for one more season, and not even really a bargain at his current price. He's also a poor OBP guy and really only excels in the HR department. It's not the 90's anymore when "chicks dug the long ball". No one is going to put a lot of value in that type of player profile in the current era of baseball.

Hey Darth… quit talking in absolutes. The Marlins GM might not be as unreasonable as Getz. The package for Luzardo has nothing to do with what a rookie GM is asking for that obviously nobody is willing to pay.

Cowser and Ortiz are a fine starter to any deal. If they value Santander great, if they don’t you move on to Mountcastle, Hays, Urias as other options. If not you can offer other prospects to be the 3, 4, and possibly 5th parts. But again Cowser is ranked high enough to be the headliner even if some have soured on him here. 

[Rustbelt]

Bellinger is the one to stay away from, IMO.  One good season does not eliminate 3 straight awful seasons prior. 

[Safelykept]

53 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Luzardo would be great but targeting any specific player is a poor strategy. If real GM's did that, you would end up with no leverage and getting fleeced. IMO we should be exploring options and evaluating on a case by case basis for cost. I would be disappointed if we do nothing but sometimes less is more if we don't like the deals that are on the table.

Elias is definitely looking  at Cease and probably  Luzardo. Here is  why the Marlins are much better  fit than the CWS, because if there trying to win this year ( and I think its more lets stick with Luzardo and see what happens) But there are a couple of other pieces that could come into trade that could be more of a fit for both teams. Cabrera and Meyer would come for less than Luzardo. (probably more vets than prospects0 Both guys would have a floor of backend BP ,potential starter. If you add to the BP you put Wells into SP mix.Elias with so many options.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Luzardo would be great but targeting any specific player is a poor strategy. If real GM's did that, you would end up with no leverage and getting fleeced. IMO we should be exploring options and evaluating on a case by case basis for cost. I would be disappointed if we do nothing but sometimes less is more if we don't like the deals that are on the table.

So …I imagine a scenario similar to the one in moneyball where he meets with Cleveland brass and says I need a SP. 

Hey it’s Mike with the O’s ….I need a good young SP. 

Peter Bendix….. Who are you thinking?

Mike Elias…. How about Garrett?

Peter Bendix …. He’s a No….what do you think about Cabrera or Trevor Rogers?

Mike …. No on Rogers ….How about Lazardo?

Peter Bendix…. That might work ….Who are you offering?

Mike ….What are your needs.

Peter….I need a slugger. How about Santander? 

Mike, yeah that can work what else?

Peter… How about Mayo? 

Mike ….Nah …. How about Cowser? 

Peter … OK , What else?

Mike… I can give you Ortiz or Norby and a pitching prospect. 

Peter …. Povich? 

Mike … Yes 

Peter…How about an infielder ? 

Mike… I can throw in Mateo 

Peter….How about Urias

 

……. And so on until they meet in the middle. Of course May he would just call and say I’m hearing Luzardo might be available. And then fall back to Cabrera. I’m not a fan and I’d rather have Max Meyer. 

 

 

 

 

[jamalshw]

I get including Santander in a trade package given the Marlins' clear need for offense--particularly power--and an OF. BUT, with just one year of service remaining, I think he has more value to the 2024 Orioles than to the Marlins as the Orioles are much clearer contenders than the Marlins who are more fringe contenders in 2024 and looking to build long-term. I would imagine Santander would be little more than a 3rd or 4th piece to them whereas he's currently a central part of our lineup as the Orioles get guys like Kjerstad, Cowser and Mayo adjusted to the majors this season and they can, hopefully, take over the spot next season. 

I would imagine the Marlins are looking for both guys that can contribute in 2024 AND have controllability, particularly given Luzardo has 3 years of control. 

With Soler gone, they lost their big thumper. They have full seasons of Josh Bell and Jake Burger which does help, but the OF seems a player light and they could definitely also upgrade SS and C. 

If I'm the Marlins, I'm targeting Basallo. But if I'm the Orioles, I'm not giving him up. Still, a package centered on Cowser and Ortiz could be intriguing as while they're both unproven and each struggled in limited playing time in the Majors, they both have proven all they need to at AAA and could be plugged into the lineup today. Still, I would think they'd want at least one "proven" major league piece. I don't think Mateo offers them much more than they have with Berti. And Urias probably doesn't offer much either given Arreaz and Burger have 2B and 3B set.  They may have some interest in O'Hearn given he can be put in the OF, 1B or DH (though the value is probably minimal). And maybe given Garcia's struggles last year Mountcastle may have value to them given he has a few years of control and they can use him and Bell at 1B and DH. Or maybe Hays is an option. 

Overall, I'm skeptical to give up too many current players given we are looking to compete again but there's certainly a bit of excess to play with...unfortuately, most of the excuse with much value still has consider value to us. 

Beyond that, they'd probably want a pitcher thrown in the deal as well, landing us with one of our better pitching prospects. 

All in all, I'd be fine with a Cowser and Ortiz led package. But am struggling to find the veteran and pitching prospect to include in an offer. 

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I get including Santander in a trade package given the Marlins' clear need for offense--particularly power--and an OF. BUT, with just one year of service remaining, I think he has more value to the 2024 Orioles than to the Marlins as the Orioles are much clearer contenders than the Marlins who are more fringe contenders in 2024 and looking to build long-term. I would imagine Santander would be little more than a 3rd or 4th piece to them whereas he's currently a central part of our lineup as the Orioles get guys like Kjerstad, Cowser and Mayo adjusted to the majors this season and they can, hopefully, take over the spot next season. 

I would imagine the Marlins are looking for both guys that can contribute in 2024 AND have controllability, particularly given Luzardo has 3 years of control. 

With Soler gone, they lost their big thumper. They have full seasons of Josh Bell and Jake Burger which does help, but the OF seems a player light and they could definitely also upgrade SS and C. 

If I'm the Marlins, I'm targeting Basallo. But if I'm the Orioles, I'm not giving him up. Still, a package centered on Cowser and Ortiz could be intriguing as while they're both unproven and each struggled in limited playing time in the Majors, they both have proven all they need to at AAA and could be plugged into the lineup today. Still, I would think they'd want at least one "proven" major league piece. I don't think Mateo offers them much more than they have with Berti. And Urias probably doesn't offer much either given Arreaz and Burger have 2B and 3B set.  They may have some interest in O'Hearn given he can be put in the OF, 1B or DH (though the value is probably minimal). And maybe given Garcia's struggles last year Mountcastle may have value to them given he has a few years of control and they can use him and Bell at 1B and DH. Or maybe Hays is an option. 

Overall, I'm skeptical to give up too many current players given we are looking to compete again but there's certainly a bit of excess to play with...unfortuately, most of the excuse with much value still has consider value to us. 

Beyond that, they'd probably want a pitcher thrown in the deal as well, landing us with one of our better pitching prospects. 

All in all, I'd be fine with a Cowser and Ortiz led package. But am struggling to find the veteran and pitching prospect to include in an offer. 

More valuable to us? He’s Latino and would probably be an exciting draw in Miami. Plus he might be willing to a reasonable extension. 

[Daryn Billett]

What if you trade Mullins, Ortiz. and Kjerstad and one of our minor league pitchers for Lazardo, we put Cowser to replace Mullins

I think Marlins would be more willing to work with us than White Sox, the White Sox  new GM , asking the world for Cease, 

 

[jamalshw]

43 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

More valuable to us? He’s Latino and would probably be an exciting draw in Miami. Plus he might be willing to a reasonable extension. 

We clearly disagree.

Sure, he's Latino and he's a fun hitter, but I'm not sure that Anthony Santander is going to be the deciding factor for a casual fan in Miami to sway them to go to more games or buy a ticket plan. He's a good player and would help the team in 2024, but not the level that becomes an "exciting draw." 

As I stated, the Marlins are a fringe contender in 2024. While they're certainly looking to improve for this year and Santander helps with that. They're in a position more akin to where the Orioles were last year, coming off a better than expected season and looking to improve for the near future, but with eyes on the next several years rather than the next one. 

Sure, I guess there's something to be said for a chance at an extension after experiencing a city, but I don't know how much the second lowest attendance last year in MLB helps in that cause. I'm sure being in Miami has a lifestyle draw for Santander (and for most people to be honest), but I really don't see him as having a ton of a value to Miami and I'm not sure a potential of an extension changes that (maybe actually negotiating an extension as part of the deal changes that but that's not all that common).

I think the Orioles' have the better chance to compete in 2024 so his production in 2024 helps the Orioles more than the Marlins. That's just how I see it. 

[Roll Tide]

24 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

We clearly disagree.

Sure, he's Latino and he's a fun hitter, but I'm not sure that Anthony Santander is going to be the deciding factor for a casual fan in Miami to sway them to go to more games or buy a ticket plan. He's a good player and would help the team in 2024, but not the level that becomes an "exciting draw." 

As I stated, the Marlins are a fringe contender in 2024. While they're certainly looking to improve for this year and Santander helps with that. They're in a position more akin to where the Orioles were last year, coming off a better than expected season and looking to improve for the near future, but with eyes on the next several years rather than the next one. 

Sure, I guess there's something to be said for a chance at an extension after experiencing a city, but I don't know how much the second lowest attendance last year in MLB helps in that cause. I'm sure being in Miami has a lifestyle draw for Santander (and for most people to be honest), but I really don't see him as having a ton of a value to Miami and I'm not sure a potential of an extension changes that (maybe actually negotiating an extension as part of the deal changes that but that's not all that common).

I think the Orioles' have the better chance to compete in 2024 so his production in 2024 helps the Orioles more than the Marlins. That's just how I see it. 

So MLB hitters peak between 27 & 30. This season will be his 29 year season.  So last year to this year he’s improved .17 points in average and 24 points in OPS. That would put him at .274 and .817. 70 of his 152 hits were XBH …. At 2.5 hits per 100 ABs (600 ABs) ..that’s 15 hits. So another 7 XHB … so he probably hits 30+ homers and drivers in somewhere in 105-110 range. Somebody should value that and in regards to hitting that’s probably star range no?

[RVAOsFan]

56 minutes ago, Daryn Billett said:

What if you trade Mullins, Ortiz. and Kjerstad and one of our minor league pitchers for Lazardo, we put Cowser to replace Mullins

I think Marlins would be more willing to work with us than White Sox, the White Sox  new GM , asking the world for Cease, 

 

Cowser did nothing in Baltimore last year to make me feel comfortable going into the year with Cowser penciled in as the starting CF. Would love to get Lazardo though. 

[Roll Tide]

Quote

With Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber looking even less likely to be traded, that may aid the Marlins who are listening on anyone besides Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara. Jesus Luzardo should bring a haul if dealt.

This was in a blurb about Cease.

 

 

https://nypost.com/2024/01/18/sports/astros-emerging-as-possible-josh-hader-fit-in-mlb-free-agency/

 

 

[jamalshw]

14 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So MLB hitters peak between 27 & 30. This season will be his 29 year season.  So last year to this year he’s improved .17 points in average and 24 points in OPS. That would put him at .274 and .817. 70 of his 152 hits were XBH …. At 2.5 hits per 100 ABs (600 ABs) ..that’s 15 hits. So another 7 XHB … so he probably hits 30+ homers and drivers in somewhere in 105-110 range. Somebody should value that and in regards to hitting that’s probably star range no?

I'm not disputing that he's a very good player though I think it's a stretch to expect the same level of "improvement" in 2024 that he showed from 2022 to 2023. I also put "improvement" in quotes given the difference in the offensive environment in those two years and given his OPS+ went from 120 to 121...basically staying the same. He's a hitter that's 20% above league average which is valuable, yes. But again, I'm not disputing that he's a good player. 

I'm disputing that Santander will have any real impact on the attendance as an "exciting draw." Producing as a star player (and my definition of that and yours may vary) and being a star player are different things. I don't view him as any more "exciting" than Jorge Soler. Both great hitters and Santander provides a bit more given the defensive aspect, but neither are going to impact attendance singularly to the point of being consequential. Given the Marlins' poor attendance last year, I can't really say Soler was a draw. And if I'm a Marlins' fan and someone comes up to me and asks how many games I'm attending, the number doesn't change based on whether Santander is on the team. 

Given his one year of controllability and the fact the Marlins are competing, but more fringe contenders compared to the Orioles, I don't know that he has that much trade value to the Marlins given it's just for 2024. 

The point you originally questioned was my saying Santander has more value to the Orioles than the Marlins. I stand by that. He's been a middle of the order hitter for us and he will be again in 2024. The Orioles are coming off a 101 win season and expect to compete for the division and the World Series again in 2024. So his production in 2024 is hugely important. 

The Marlins, on the other hand, won 84 games despite having a negative run differential. They get a full season of Bell and Burger to help, but lost Soler. They're win projections (depending on the site of course) are generally upper 70s to 80. They're a contender in that they have a shot at the postseason, but few would consider them a legit World Series contender. Things can change, sure, and hope springs eternal, but simply based on 2023 and team direction, the Orioles should be far more focused on 2024 whereas the Marlins should have a longer term view. Consequentially, any 2024 production is more important to the Orioles than the Marlins. 

Obviously you disagree with my assessment and that's okay. Maybe you are right. Maybe the Marlins really covet a one-year rental for 3-years of Luzardo. But I don't see it personally and if I were in the Marlins' shoes, I wouldn't be all that excited about Santander unless he was the 3rd or 4th piece. And as an Orioles fan, if I'm giving up the offensive production of Santander for 2024, I hope he's the headliner in the deal and not joined by several top prospects as well. 

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I'm not disputing that he's a very good player though I think it's a stretch to expect the same level of "improvement" in 2024 that he showed from 2022 to 2023. I also put "improvement" in quotes given the difference in the offensive environment in those two years and given his OPS+ went from 120 to 121...basically staying the same. He's a hitter that's 20% above league average which is valuable, yes. But again, I'm not disputing that he's a good player. 

I'm disputing that Santander will have any real impact on the attendance as an "exciting draw." Producing as a star player (and my definition of that and yours may vary) and being a star player are different things. I don't view him as any more "exciting" than Jorge Soler. Both great hitters and Santander provides a bit more given the defensive aspect, but neither are going to impact attendance singularly to the point of being consequential. Given the Marlins' poor attendance last year, I can't really say Soler was a draw. And if I'm a Marlins' fan and someone comes up to me and asks how many games I'm attending, the number doesn't change based on whether Santander is on the team. 

Given his one year of controllability and the fact the Marlins are competing, but more fringe contenders compared to the Orioles, I don't know that he has that much trade value to the Marlins given it's just for 2024. 

The point you originally questioned was my saying Santander has more value to the Orioles than the Marlins. I stand by that. He's been a middle of the order hitter for us and he will be again in 2024. The Orioles are coming off a 101 win season and expect to compete for the division and the World Series again in 2024. So his production in 2024 is hugely important. 

The Marlins, on the other hand, won 84 games despite having a negative run differential. They get a full season of Bell and Burger to help, but lost Soler. They're win projections (depending on the site of course) are generally upper 70s to 80. They're a contender in that they have a shot at the postseason, but few would consider them a legit World Series contender. Things can change, sure, and hope springs eternal, but simply based on 2023 and team direction, the Orioles should be far more focused on 2024 whereas the Marlins should have a longer term view. Consequentially, any 2024 production is more important to the Orioles than the Marlins. 

Obviously you disagree with my assessment and that's okay. Maybe you are right. Maybe the Marlins really covet a one-year rental for 3-years of Luzardo. But I don't see it personally and if I were in the Marlins' shoes, I wouldn't be all that excited about Santander unless he was the 3rd or 4th piece. And as an Orioles fan, if I'm giving up the offensive production of Santander for 2024, I hope he's the headliner in the deal and not joined by several top prospects as well. 

No where did I say that they’d take Santander as the headliner. But, Cowser, Norby, Santander, Povich/McDermott, and a lottery ticket might work.