Corbin Burnes quote re: extension vs free agency

[interloper]

Quote

“Being in my shoes, being a year away from [free agency], I think if a trade-and-extension type of deal came up — obviously, every guy that gets this close to free agency wants to test the market to see what your true dollar amount is, see what teams really are in on you. It would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market and being able to choose where you want to go. I think that’s one thing every player in their career wants to get to. Once you get that six years of service time — which for a lot of guys takes seven, eight, sometimes nine years to get to — you get that chance to test the market and see what your top dollar is.”

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/corbin-burnes-trade-rumors-extension-free-agent.html

Just a friendly reminder. It's not just speculation that he's a Boras guy and probably wants to test free agency - he himself has said he is absolutely committed to testing free agency.

Elias knows the score. He made the deal knowing there's a 99% chance he can't extend him, and that factored into what he was wililng to give up. For the folks assuming this trade somehow means the payroll leash is off, I'm not sure where that's coming from. For the price of 1/$15 and a couple prospects, you get an ace for a year. That's well within Elias' MO and it's even in line with previous payroll additions under Angelos. 

I think we need to pump the brakes on the whole "Elias wouldn't have done this if an extension wasn't in the cards" thing. An extension is not in the cards. Period. In what world is Elias seeing the value in a deal approaching $300 million for a 30+ year old pitcher? I'm sorry, but no. This is a calculated trade at a precise moment when it is most likely to benefit the Orioles. Teams like the Yankees are going to be steaming mad next offseason and ready to blow away any offer even Rubenstein can make. And we still have no real idea of how Rubenstein will handle payroll. This trade tells us virtually nothing in that regard. 

I'm excited as anyone here, but just needed to get this out!

Edited February 2 by interloper

[Spy Fox]

I don' t expect an extension and I think the merits of a 5+ year FA contract for him could be debated.

Him spending a year here probably increases the chances he signs here as a FA though, if the new ownerships decides to have the pockets for it. 

[cravens86]

I totally agree and think this was a move that would have happened either way. Now it’s possible we can re-sign him after he tests the market which wouldn’t have been a possibility but I’m going into this thinking this is one year of Burnes 

[clapdiddy]

I could see this being something that happens with the O's on a semi-regular basis.   This would save them from long-term commitment.  You get a guy in here who is out to make himself some serious coin following his last year (or two) before FA.   This could be a new formula for teams like the Orioles and Braves and maybe some other teams that can't afford to have that 30M dollar/year salary.    And, quite honestly, if the Orioles are going to invest in a player, I'd rather it be Gunnar and/or Holliday.   Get the position players locked up and get your "ace" through trade.  

[interloper]

Just now, Spy Fox said:

I don' t expect an extension and I think the merits of a 5+ year FA contract for him could be debated.

Him spending a year here probably increases the chances he signs here as a FA though, if the new ownerships decides to have the pockets for it. 

Sure, I will allow for the fact that it's possible we sign him in free agency. Although I still think that's such an enormous leap to go from Alex Cobb to Corbin Burnes in terms of FA SP signings. And I just don't think it's an avenue that Elias wants to go in. 

The Orioles are still a mid-market team. It's just too soon to be assuming Rubenstein is gonna come in here and throw around cash for the hell of it. Boras is going get Cole money for Burnes if he stays healthy, there's no question. And we should not be playing in the end of the pool. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, clapdiddy said:

I could see this being something that happens with the O's on a semi-regular basis.   This would save them from long-term commitment.  You get a guy in here who is out to make himself some serious coin following his last year (or two) before FA.   This could be a new formula for teams like the Orioles and Braves and maybe some other teams that can't afford to have that 30M dollar/year salary.    And, quite honestly, if the Orioles are going to invest in a player, I'd rather it be Gunnar and/or Holliday.   Get the position players locked up and get your "ace" through trade.  

Right, I think it's much more like Elias to keep the pipeline going and keep trading for guys like Burnes. 

It just doesn't make much sense to use your limited payroll resources on one 30+ pitcher. 

[Matt Bennett]

It's a dollars game. Boras' clients sign extensions too. You just have to pony up. And Ownership is swimming in it. 

Boras sees the benefits of guaranteed money in the face of injury or regression. Whether it's 90%, or whatever %, of what he could get on the open market. 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

It's a dollars game. Boras' clients sign extensions too. You just have to pony up. And Ownership is swimming in it. 

Boras sees the benefits of guaranteed money in the face of injury or regression. Whether it's 90%, or whatever %, of what he could get on the open market. 

We don't know anything about how this ownership will handle payroll. That's just a fact. This trade tells us nothing. We added $15 million of payroll this year and the books remain clean as a whistle for 2025 and beyond. So nothing has really changed there. 

What we DO know is that Elias comes from a culture where throwing a ton of money at one aging pitcher is not something he subscribes to. We also know that while Boras extensions do happen, they are very rare and they are basically just free agent deals. He still gets top dollar. 

Edited February 2 by interloper

[Matt Bennett]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

 

The Orioles are still a mid-market team.

Mid-Market, or league average, is like $160M a year, and counting. What are we at? $90M? 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Mid-Market, or league average, is like $160M a year, and counting. What are we at? $90M? 

Correct. Angelos thinks we are small market, but we all know it's closer to mid-market. That doesn't mean Rubenstein will spend mid-market. We just don't know! And it's debatable if a large chunk of that should be spent on Burnes. Has anything about Elias told you that going toe to toe with large market teams for the services of one SP in his 30s is how he wants to do business?

Edited February 2 by interloper

[Jim'sKid26]

Thoughtful extensions to players who are early in their career seems like a reasonable strategy for this club. Burnes is gunning for a Gerrit Cole level of compensation or even more. I'm not convinced that is good value for a team that has multiple young  players who make up it's core. It will be very interesting to see how the pitching prospects mature over the next 2-3 years. It will also be fun to watch Burnes pitch this year. 

[Matt Bennett]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

What we DO know is that Elias comes from a culture where throwing a ton of money at one aging pitcher is not something he subscribes to. 

What are you talking about? How much money have the Astros thrown to 34+ year old Justin Verlander? Over $200M?

[24fps]

4 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Mid-Market, or league average, is like $160M a year, and counting. What are we at? $90M? 

Closer to $100 million with the addition of Burnes and the final arb settlements.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Matt Bennett said:

What are you talking about? How much money have the Astros thrown to 34+ year old Justin Verlander? Over $200M?

They traded for him in 2017 and Elias was with the Orioles in 2018. Try again. 

[oriolediehard]

12 minutes ago, cravens86 said:

I totally agree and think this was a move that would have happened either way. Now it’s possible we can re-sign him after he tests the market which wouldn’t have been a possibility but I’m going into this thinking this is one year of Burnes 

Burnes already stated that he would consider signing 200 -  250 mil. So the O's know what needs to be done.