10 days left in ST. Here are the battles:

[BobP]

1 minute ago, spleen1015 said:

It never was and never will be Holliday versus Mayo. Elias told us Holliday was making the team this year as a 2B. Mayo doesn't play 2B.

Mayo is stuck behind Urias and Westburg. It's going to take one of them getting injured, traded, or poor play for Mayo to get his shot. I hope when he does get his shot, they're forced to finally do something.

I believe there is more competition between Holliday and Mayo than you are presenting. I believe only one is making the team, as they will only want one rookie infielder to start the season. If they choose Mayo, Westburg would play 2nd (he's the interchangable part). I do expect Holliday will make the team and Mayo's fate will be decided in June (depends on team standings and trade market / needs).

[Gunnar]

6 minutes ago, BobP said:

I believe there is more competition between Holliday and Mayo than you are presenting. I believe only one is making the team, as they will only want one rookie infielder to start the season. If they choose Mayo, Westburg would play 2nd (he's the interchangable part). I do expect Holliday will make the team and Mayo's fate will be decided in June (depends on team standings and trade market / needs).

I hope they don't have a "one rookie in the infield" limitation, it would be very arbitrary. They should go with the best options available, regardless of tenure.

[jamalshw]

I do think Cowser is leading for the OF spot, but I don't know that Kjerstad and Stowers are completely eliminated just yet. I do think Holliday has a spot unless something major happens in the next week and would be surprised to see Mayo make the team without a trade of Urias (or someone else) preceding it. I don't expect such a trade to happen, but Urias' solid spring certainly doesn't hurt. 

[Aristotelian]

17 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Akin actually pitched much better in the second half of 2022 by peripheral numbers, but his BABIP literally more than doubled from .186 in the first half to .407 in the second half. His August-Sept K/9 was over 10.5, BB/9 2.5, FIP and xFIP each well under 3.00. 

Really, Akin has only had terrible batted ball outcomes since the middle of 2022, and his K, BB and HR rates have been excellent. And since he didn’t pitch for most of 2023, that still comes out to a small sample of about 50 IP over those 1.5 years, where batted ball outcomes are extremely volatile and not predictive - as evidenced by this being the same pitcher who had that .187 BABIP in 53 IP in the first half of 2022.

Believe it or not, the Fangraphs Depth Charts (50% ZIPS and Steamer) actually project Akin to have the best FIP of all Orioles RP, and second best ERA behind Cano. I wouldn’t go that far, but there’s no denying that there’s a lot to like in Akin’s more predictive numbers if he is healthy again. 

FIP does love him! Last year I advocated for using him as a matchup lefty based on his career splits, but then he was horrible in that role. But maybe he was hurt? Not gonna lie, something about his mound presence irritates me and then his failures play into my confirmation bias. If he has success this year I will gladly stand corrected. For now, my preference would be Vespi as he has been perfectly solid. 

[Brooks The Great]

1 hour ago, EdwinRip said:

I still think it’s Holliday vs Wong.  Mayo doesn’t have a chance without injuries.

I agree with this. And I think Wong has a better chance than most O's fans expect/want. Wong fills the crappy veteran 2B role previously held by Adam Frazier and Rougned Odor because of "experience", except he'd fill it in a backup capacity instead of as a regular strong-side starter.

[Philip]

Wong is wrong!

[TommyPickles]

I feel perfectly comfortable with Irvin as the fifth starter to start the year. He's really not bad.

I kind of hope Teheran makes the bullpen. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit for what he did when he was younger, but he seems like a guy who the O's could get value from. He's experienced. He walks no one.

 

 

[spleen1015]

There's no way Wong makes the roster. We already have 1 scrub in Mateo.

[Aristotelian]

Locks (10): Rutschman, McCann, Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Gunnar, Westburg, Urias, Santander, Hays, Mullins

Near Lock: Mateo

Pick 1 OF/lefty bat: Cowser, Kjerstad

Pick 1: Holliday, Mayo, Maton, Johnson, Wong, McKenna

I don't see any way for Holliday and Mayo both unless something happens with Urias, Mateo, or both. Holliday could make it, pushing Urias to a bench role. If Holliday and Mayo don't make it, I really don't care who makes it as it would be a 5th OF/5th IF type who shouldn't play.

I think Holliday should make it and we go for the draft pick/ROY. Mayo should come up if Mountcastle or any of the infielders are struggling.

 

 

 

[RVAOsFan]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Fair enough, I get it.

I am very disappointed in the cordial manner in which you and @Sports Guy handled this disagreement.  I was looking forward to at least 3 pages of back forth on who is the better O's fan arguing.  

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

2. It's not Holliday vs Mayo. Mayo will be in AAA unless there's a Urias trade.

I think it's Mayo v Mayo's Contract v Urias.

I'd love for the O's to get a sense of Mayo's openness to signing an extension and trading Urias. Otherwise, I think they'll just play the service time game with him, which I think stinks because I think he's every bit as ready as Holliday. I also think he'd have a chance to win the ROY award and net the draft pick.

With that said, we already have a super version of Urias on the team. His name is Jordan Westburg and he's a huge upgrade. Urias is holding this team back. He can be a good player and great guy and that statement can still be true. He should be moved and the Mayo/Holliday era should begin.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I am very disappointed in the cordial manner in which you and @Sports Guy handled this disagreement.  I was looking forward to at least 3 pages of back forth on who is the better O's fan arguing.  

I just don't have the energy today, really. 

[Philip]

I have a query:

we keep talking about designating guys who have obvious and legitimate value to other teams, and the idea is that those guys should be traded instead of designated, and let go for “cash, considerations” or such.

We can’t trade him because other teams are waiting for us to dump him, and to delay is to send somebody down to the minors who should be on the big team. who cares if we lose somebody like Urias or Mateo or McKenna, even though they are all worthwhile players?

My question is, does anybody have a sense of who the best player in the last seven or eight years or so was waived near the end of spring training? JD Martinez is a famous example, but that was just a terrible mistake on Houston’s part. 

Anybody else?

Regardless, we won’t be losing anybody we would regret later.

Bring on the kids, and let Wong be the first guy on the bus out of town.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

I have a query:

we keep talking about designating guys who have obvious and legitimate value to other teams, and the idea is that those guys should be traded instead of designated, and let go for “cash, considerations” or such.

We can’t trade him because other teams are waiting for us to dump him, and to delay is to send somebody down to the minors who should be on the big team. who cares if we lose somebody like Urias or Mateo or McKenna, even though they are all worthwhile players?

My question is, does anybody have a sense of who the best player in the last seven or eight years or so was waived near the end of spring training? JD Martinez is a famous example, but that was just a terrible mistake on Houston’s part. 

Anybody else?

Regardless, we won’t be losing anybody we would regret later.

Bring on the kids, and let Wong be the first guy on the bus out of town.

I don't think anyone is afraid of losing Wong or Webb or perhaps even Mateo or McKenna to waivers. 

Urias, he's a much more valuable player than all those guys and should not be in the same conversation. It needs to be a trade. We won't just put him on waivers when there's no real need right now to do that. 

[spleen1015]

6 minutes ago, Philip said:

I have a query:

we keep talking about designating guys who have obvious and legitimate value to other teams, and the idea is that those guys should be traded instead of designated, and let go for “cash, considerations” or such.

We can’t trade him because other teams are waiting for us to dump him, and to delay is to send somebody down to the minors who should be on the big team. who cares if we lose somebody like Urias or Mateo or McKenna, even though they are all worthwhile players?

My question is, does anybody have a sense of who the best player in the last seven or eight years or so was waived near the end of spring training? JD Martinez is a famous example, but that was just a terrible mistake on Houston’s part. 

Anybody else?

Regardless, we won’t be losing anybody we would regret later.

Bring on the kids, and let Wong be the first guy on the bus out of town.

Christian Walker was waived by the O's picked up by the Braves, waived by the Braves picked up by the Reds, waived by the Reds picked up by the D-Backs.

When a full time player for them, he's been an .800 OPS guy.

I think Jose Bautista was a waiver claim back in the day, too.