2024 Ongoing Lineup Thread

[Fiver6565]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mayo definitely is a possibility…as is Basallo. 
 

Im not worried about this yet.  I do think a year or 2 from now this could be on the shopping list.

But I won’t be upset if we sign Soto.

Possibility sure, but we can't go into next year expecting that, based on what we've seen.  If we had seen 'normal' rookie struggles, maybe you count on progression.  But what we've seen (and I know, for Mayo its still a SSS), has been so bad, its alarming.  Like the dude can't OPS .300.  He's hitting like a pitcher.

[Fiver6565]

6 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

Santander is to hot and cold to be a legit middle of the order hitter for a WS quality team.  If he was a #5 or #6 hitter in the lineup then you have something.  You need Adley to get back to Adley and you need one more complete hitter which to me means a .350 OBP and a 25+ HR guy.  That would take the pressure off everyone and make the lineup much deeper.   

I don't disagree necessarily; I was just saying that losing Santander is losing one of the more productive bats in what has been for a while now a pretty bad lineup, at the end of the day, regardless of where he's batting.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Not suggesting he doesn't matter at all.  Just saying his presence (or lack thereof) alone can't explain the extremity of the drop off.  The real issue is that Holliday has been putrid, Mayo looks even worse somehow, Cowser better than that but not good lately, Rutsch of course has been awful.  That's the big one for next year - what version of Adley are we going to get?  He's been bad enough, for long enough, to make that a more fair question than I would have thought.

In my head we're struggling because of players like Jimenez, Soto, Rivera, Slater in the lineup regularly.  But then I see lineups like today, and that really isn't the case nearly as often as I'm thinking.  Its worrisome.  We've basically cast off (due to injury/trade) the regular Hangout castoff list - Hays, Urias, Mateo, even Mountcastle to some degree - and for the most part replaced them w/ the players we wanted to replace them - Cowser, Mayo, Holliday - and things have gotten much much worse.

It's not the fact that Westburg is out of the lineup...it's who he's been replaced with.  If you replaced Westburg with a player of half his production, you'd still have more than what Holliday has given you.  And what Mayo has given you.

You just listed them off:

Cowser - can be a good hitter but is a K machine.  He's got a .678 OPS in September.  

Mayo - automatic out.

Holliday - automatic out.  

Yeah, we wanted to replace guys with Holliday and Mayo because they were top prospects.  No one had any clue that these guys would have been as bad as they've been.

Also, in today's lineup, you're overlooking how bad Tony and O'Hearn have been recently, too.  O'Hearn's OPS for September is .471.  .471!!!

So when I look at today's lineup, I look at who the automatic outs are.  I look at the guys who are just flat out not giving any signs of life at all.  

1.  O'Hearn.  Pains me to say it cause I like him, but he should be waking up every morning thankful for the existence of Holliday and everyone obsessing over how bad he's been.  O'Hearn is easily worth 3-4 outs a game.

2.  Holliday.  I still have hopes for the kid but good lord, his OPS this month is .370.  Holliday is easily worth 3-4 outs a game.

3.  Santander.  Last 28 days, his OPS is .739.  Over the last 14 days it's .586.  Over the last 7 days it's .250.  That's nto the trend you want to see from that guy.  I feel like I'm being generous but I think he's worth 2-3 outs a game right now.

4.  Cowser.  Probably the most appetizing of these 4, his OPS for September is .678 plus he brings a good glove to the field and that can't really be overlooked.  I think he's worth 2-3 outs a game, easily.

So there you have it.  Conservatively, that's 10 outs in the game....just flat out zeros in the lineup.  You can make a case that these guys will produce 14 outs in the game today and I don't think anyone would say that's out of line.  

 

[Fiver6565]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's not the fact that Westburg is out of the lineup...it's who he's been replaced with.  If you replaced Westburg with a player of half his production, you'd still have more than what Holliday has given you.  And what Mayo has given you.

You just listed them off:

Cowser - can be a good hitter but is a K machine.  He's got a .678 OPS in September.  

Mayo - automatic out.

Holliday - automatic out.  

Yeah, we wanted to replace guys with Holliday and Mayo because they were top prospects.  No one had any clue that these guys would have been as bad as they've been.

Also, in today's lineup, you're overlooking how bad Tony and O'Hearn have been recently, too.  O'Hearn's OPS for September is .471.  .471!!!

So when I look at today's lineup, I look at who the automatic outs are.  I look at the guys who are just flat out not giving any signs of life at all.  

1.  O'Hearn.  Pains me to say it cause I like him, but he should be waking up every morning thankful for the existence of Holliday and everyone obsessing over how bad he's been.  O'Hearn is easily worth 3-4 outs a game.

2.  Holliday.  I still have hopes for the kid but good lord, his OPS this month is .370.  Holliday is easily worth 3-4 outs a game.

3.  Santander.  Last 28 days, his OPS is .739.  Over the last 14 days it's .586.  Over the last 7 days it's .250.  That's nto the trend you want to see from that guy.  I feel like I'm being generous but I think he's worth 2-3 outs a game right now.

4.  Cowser.  Probably the most appetizing of these 4, his OPS for September is .678 plus he brings a good glove to the field and that can't really be overlooked.  I think he's worth 2-3 outs a game, easily.

So there you have it.  Conservatively, that's 10 outs in the game....just flat out zeros in the lineup.  You can make a case that these guys will produce 14 outs in the game today and I don't think anyone would say that's out of line.  

 

I think we're actually making the same point here.  The players we thought would be in the lineup, for the most part, ARE in the lineup.  Westburg is the only exception.  the problem isn't Westburg is missing - its that the rest of these guys suck.  Like, all of them.  At least right now.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I think we're actually making the same point here.  The players we thought would be in the lineup, for the most part, ARE in the lineup.  Westburg is the only exception.  the problem isn't Westburg is missing - its that the rest of these guys suck.  Like, all of them.  At least right now.

That's right.  So when people want to overlook "the injuries" excuse...they really can't...or shouldn't.  Simply because the players that are replacing them have been awful.

And some of these guys just are who they are.  Tony is a guy who can have a massive heater, he did it for two months this summer.  He's also a guy who can have a massive power outage, too.

[LookitsPuck]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's not the fact that Westburg is out of the lineup...it's who he's been replaced with.  If you replaced Westburg with a player of half his production, you'd still have more than what Holliday has given you.  And what Mayo has given you.

You just listed them off:

Cowser - can be a good hitter but is a K machine.  He's got a .678 OPS in September.  

Mayo - automatic out.

Holliday - automatic out.  

Yeah, we wanted to replace guys with Holliday and Mayo because they were top prospects.  No one had any clue that these guys would have been as bad as they've been.

Also, in today's lineup, you're overlooking how bad Tony and O'Hearn have been recently, too.  O'Hearn's OPS for September is .471.  .471!!!

So when I look at today's lineup, I look at who the automatic outs are.  I look at the guys who are just flat out not giving any signs of life at all.  

1.  O'Hearn.  Pains me to say it cause I like him, but he should be waking up every morning thankful for the existence of Holliday and everyone obsessing over how bad he's been.  O'Hearn is easily worth 3-4 outs a game.

2.  Holliday.  I still have hopes for the kid but good lord, his OPS this month is .370.  Holliday is easily worth 3-4 outs a game.

3.  Santander.  Last 28 days, his OPS is .739.  Over the last 14 days it's .586.  Over the last 7 days it's .250.  That's nto the trend you want to see from that guy.  I feel like I'm being generous but I think he's worth 2-3 outs a game right now.

4.  Cowser.  Probably the most appetizing of these 4, his OPS for September is .678 plus he brings a good glove to the field and that can't really be overlooked.  I think he's worth 2-3 outs a game, easily.

So there you have it.  Conservatively, that's 10 outs in the game....just flat out zeros in the lineup.  You can make a case that these guys will produce 14 outs in the game today and I don't think anyone would say that's out of line.  

 

Agree 100%. I had a different thread chatting about The New Guys. 

If we look at just the guys that are getting playing time because of injuries/trades/opportunities that are still playing on this team:

• Austin Slater: 0.4 (0.2 oWAR, 0.1 dWAR)
• Livan Soto: 0.3 (0.2, 0.1)
• Emmanuel Rivera: 0.1 (0.4, -0.3)
• Eloy Jimenez: -0.2 (-0.2, -0.2)
• Jackson Holliday: -0.3 (-0.1, 0)
• Coby Mayo: -0.7 (-0.5, -0.2)

If we just go off of their oWAR, that's a combined 0. 

Zero.

Ramon Urias had a 1.6 oWAR this year. Jordan Westburg a 3.4 oWAR. Even Jorge Mateo had a 0.8 oWAR.

Those 3 guys would be getting regular to semi-regular playing time. Eloy/Holliday/Mayo wouldn't play and their near -1.0 oWAR would be replaced with guys that had a combined 6 oWAR anywhere from months (Westy, Mateo) to weeks ago (Ramon).

[LookitsPuck]

Oh, I forgot Mountcastle. 

He had a 2.2 bWAR season going (1.4 oWAR). And he's effectively been replaced with O'Hearn who is a 1.3 bWAR player (which has been dropping) of which he has a -1.4 dWAR and a 1.8 oWAR.

So there's a net negative there, too, going from O'Hearn part time to him FT and losing Mounty's bat.

Injuries are a part of any given team, but I don't think it's unfair to say this team would be at 88-89 wins with even half of those guys back. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Oh, I forgot Mountcastle. 

He had a 2.2 bWAR season going (1.4 oWAR). And he's effectively been replaced with O'Hearn who is a 1.3 bWAR player (which has been dropping) of which he has a -1.4 dWAR and a 1.8 oWAR.

So there's a net negative there, too, going from O'Hearn part time to him FT and losing Mounty's bat.

Injuries are a part of any given team, but I don't think it's unfair to say this team would be at 88-89 wins with even half of those guys back. 

Correct.  We'd be way better off if half those guys were in the lineup.  

But yeah, let's fire Hyde.

[Warehouse]

2 hours ago, Fiver6565 said:

There are 4 players in that lineup that were also in the OD lineup.  But in spite of that, the scary part about the offense tank job we've seen, is that the lineup really isn't THAT different than you might have guessed it might look right now, back on opening day.   Obviously Rivera instead of Westburg is a big difference, but otherwise, there really aren't players in that lineup that you wouldn't have expected.  O'hearn is getting more play than he would have, but we are seeing who we wanted to see - Holliday is up and playing, Kjerstad and Cowser in the OF.  Mayo not in this lineup but on the roster, and he's been flat out awful in limited time, on both sides of the ball.

The 5 players 'missing' from the OD lineup - Mountcastle, Urias, Mateo, Hays, and Westburg.  Other than Westburg, many on this board WANTED all those players gone at one point or another.   In fact many were in favor of straight up DFA's for Urias, Mateo, even Hays at some point.  So based on that, this should be a pretty exciting lineup.  But clearly, it is NOT.  You can't tell me Westburg missing makes THAT much difference.

All of which is to say, the offense has been bad enough lately, that its making me worry about NEXT year.  Are these guys who we thought they were?  Jury of course still out on the young guys - plenty of room for improvement there.  But how likely is there to be a hangover effect from the end of this year into the beginning of next?  We can't answer that because we don't even know who all's going to be here, but its been a bad enough stretch that it has me thinking about longer term repercussions at this point, even beyond the potential of missing the playoffs entirely, or being swept right out if we do make it.

Opening day was our LHP lineup.  Compared to lineups April 10 and 11 vs Boston, we have 7 of the 9 players.  Rivera is in instead of Westburg and Kjerstad instead of Mountcastle.

[Fiver6565]

23 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Opening day was our LHP lineup.  Compared to lineups April 10 and 11 vs Boston, we have 7 of the 9 players.  Rivera is in instead of Westburg and Kjerstad instead of Mountcastle.

OK thanks that makes sense too.  My point is, the NAMES in the lineup aren't actually that different than we would have expected, which makes the PERFORMANCE of the lineup that much more problematic, in my eyes.

[Just Regular]

I can't even fathom how magnificent the thread would be if early in the winter we sign Adam Frazier to rerun the Westburg gig on Holliday.

Would The Golden Tee machine stay in the 2025 clubhouse?