Colton Cowser 2024

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Gofannon said:

Santander does not get a long-term deal from us with the talent in the pipeline.  Not only that, our long-term contract priorities are Adley/Gunnar/Holliday/GrayRod/Bradish/other young talent TBD, not Santander.  A 3 or 4 year contract would could create a logjam both roster-wise and financially.

I like Santander.  We’re getting his age 29 season this year.   Why pay market rate for age 30-32 when you have Kjerstad and probably Mayo who are potential replacements making minimum?

Santander does a nice job in RF but if he loses another step or two, no bueno.

[Malike]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Amazing what happens when you give talented players actual playing time

To be fair, this sample size is 24 ABs. I'm glad he's more aggressive on balls in the zone and flashing his power.

[deward]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I like Santander.  We’re getting his age 29 season this year.   Why pay market rate for age 30-32 when you have Kjerstad and probably Mayo who are potential replacements making minimum?

Santander does a nice job in RF but if he loses another step or two, no bueno.

The scenario where it might make sense involves trading Kjerstad for a premium, cost-controlled pitcher. You'd have to have the right deal on the table for Kjerstad, agree to the right terms with Santander, and have some reassurance from the analytics team that Santander is a decent bet to maintain his performance over the next 3-4 years, but it would be a scenario that I'd at least put some thought into, were it my call. I'm not saying that I wouldn't ultimately decide that letting him walk is the best move, just that I don't see it as an automatic decision.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

This doesn’t make any sense to me.  Walks should affect wOBA and xwOBA exactly the same way and have no impact on the differential between the two.  

Anyway, I’m not going to worry about xwOBA today, following his two homer, one double performance.  
 

Right, the point was not about the differential between wOBA and xwOBA and being “lucky” with batted balls - it was that with a larger sample of PAs with that same chase rate he’d definitely have more walks, which would raise both of them. He was “unlucky” in only having one walk given he’s not chasing out of the zone.

Anyway, what I was saying about his xSLG and barrel rate changing quickly with one or two barrels happened exactly last night - 90th percentile barrel rate and 97th percentile .654 xSLG now 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Equal amount of rest imply interchangeable players, which our guys are NOT.

I don’t want Hays or Cowser playing CF 3/4 times a week. That is a serious defensive downgrade. Hays is not a legit MOO bat like Santander (save the rare occasions when he is super hot) otherwise that’s a downgrade offensively. The 2 interchangeable pieces are Cowser and Hays. And right now Cowser is white hot and Hays is ice cold. It makes no sense to split their time equally right now.

I think there is a decent chance that Cowser and Hays start all three games vs the Brewers with Mullins, O'Hearn and Santander getting one game off each.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I think there is a decent chance that Cowser and Hays start all three games vs the Brewers with Mullins, O'Hearn and Santander getting one game off each.

I agree. We're going to see a lot of Hays this homestand, like it or not. They just tend to want to play Hays in LF at home, so that's kind of what I'm expecting. And I'm sure Hyde feels like he has to get him going at some point. 

[TopGunnar]

Hays will get plenty more chances. I wouldn’t sacrifice Cowser playing time for those chances though

[G54377]

If I could figure out how to post a picture from my phone on here, Hays had quite the interesting reaction int he dugout to Cowser's second HR last night.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, G54377 said:

If I could figure out how to post a picture from my phone on here, Hays had quite the interesting reaction int he dugout to Cowser's second HR last night.

Would love to see it. 

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think there is a decent chance that Cowser and Hays start all three games vs the Brewers with Mullins, O'Hearn and Santander getting one game off each.

I’ll take the opposite side of that bet.  Hays, at most, starts two games, probably just the Hall start.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Would love to see it. 

He wasn’t smiling like everyone else.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think Hays in CF would be great, but I also would like to see what CC can do in center.  I've seen reports that he can be adequate to very good.

 

I think “adequate to possibly very good” is a suitable substitute for Mullins when need be. But few can go get a ball like Cedric Mullins. I hear Bradfield may be even better in that department. But time will tell.

[interloper]

Just now, RZNJ said:

He wasn’t smiling like everyone else.

To be fair, it was a fleeting shot from the camera and he was on his way to give high 5's. 

That said, Cowser looked like Markakis at his best last night and really all series. Hays has his fair share of good games and moments, but they don't often come with home runs to both side of the field. 

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, deward said:

The scenario where it might make sense involves trading Kjerstad for a premium, cost-controlled pitcher. You'd have to have the right deal on the table for Kjerstad, agree to the right terms with Santander, and have some reassurance from the analytics team that Santander is a decent bet to maintain his performance over the next 3-4 years, but it would be a scenario that I'd at least put some thought into, were it my call. I'm not saying that I wouldn't ultimately decide that letting him walk is the best move, just that I don't see it as an automatic decision.

Trade Simulator says Kjerstad is about equal in value to the Ortiz/Hall package as well as Burnes. If we could get another clone of Burnes for Kjerstad I would be inclined to go for it. They have Kjerstad higher than Cowser for what it's worth. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, deward said:

You can make a case for keeping Santander here on a 3-4 year deal, and trading Kjerstad for another asset. Not saying that's what they'll do, but I could understand it being considered as an option.

That’s definitely a possibility and I wouldn’t be really much opposed to it.

However, when we spend money on extensions, I would rather it be on our special/superstar players (Gunnar, Adley, Holliday, Burnes).