Colton Cowser 2024

[Jagwar]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Why wouldn’t he?

Just wasn't sure of the rules since he came up in 2023

[dystopia]

2 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Just wasn't sure of the rules since he came up in 2023

Well, Gunnar got us one and he played in 2022. 

[Moose Milligan]

Funny how the concept of the dreaded small sample size gets thrown out the window or outright ignored when someone’s swinging good. It’s propped up when someone’s swinging bad, as evidence that they’re not as bad as they appear to be. 
 

But now we’re dreaming about Kyle Tucker 2.0. 

[DirtyBird]

35 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Fans "what are you doing Elias, Holliday needs to be here to get the draft pick!"

Elias "Hold my Natty Boh"

Don’t we need one of them to stink and one of them to be really good, so they don’t split votes?

[Jagwar]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Funny how the concept of the dreaded small sample size gets thrown out the window or outright ignored when someone’s swinging good. It’s propped up when someone’s swinging bad, as evidence that they’re not as bad as they appear to be. 
 

But now we’re dreaming about Kyle Tucker 2.0. 

Isn't speculation what the Hangout is all about sometime?

[btdart20]

51 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Funny how the concept of the dreaded small sample size gets thrown out the window or outright ignored when someone’s swinging good. It’s propped up when someone’s swinging bad, as evidence that they’re not as bad as they appear to be. 
 

But now we’re dreaming about Kyle Tucker 2.0. 

Or maybe we're hoping what we saw in AAA in 2023 can be similar to what we get in the MLB.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Well, Gunnar got us one and he played in 2022. 

To be clear, Cowser is still a rookie because he had less than 45 days of service last year and less than 130 at bats.  Those are the criteria for position players.  He was just under the wire at 43 days of service.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To be clear, Cowser is still a rookie because he had less than 45 days of service last year and less than 130 at bats.  Those are the criteria for position players.  He was just under the wire at 43 days of service.  

Elias isn't going to fumble something like that.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Elias isn't going to fumble something like that.

I think that’s why he brought up Kjerstad instead of Cowser at the end of the year.  

[Spy Fox]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Funny how the concept of the dreaded small sample size gets thrown out the window or outright ignored when someone’s swinging good. It’s propped up when someone’s swinging bad, as evidence that they’re not as bad as they appear to be. 
 

But now we’re dreaming about Kyle Tucker 2.0. 

I think your point is right but I think that's partially because the bad small sample sizes bring out people saying x player should be cut, benched, or demoted. Stuff that wouldn't be a good idea based on the small sample. Positive small sample sizes don't lead to as many "we have to do ____" comments so they don't lead to as many small sample size rebuttals either. 

Except, I do remember a popular post last April saying that Jorge Mateo was the most exciting player in the league. 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s why he brought up Kjerstad instead of Cowser at the end of the year.  

We're playing checkers, Elias is playing chess.

[deward]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Funny how the concept of the dreaded small sample size gets thrown out the window or outright ignored when someone’s swinging good. It’s propped up when someone’s swinging bad, as evidence that they’re not as bad as they appear to be. 
 

But now we’re dreaming about Kyle Tucker 2.0. 

It's easy to dream when it's a top prospect going on a heater like this. Sure, this may turn out to be the best week of his career, and he might settle in closer to the mediocre platoon bat that some skeptics have predicted, but what's the fun in thinking like that right now? 

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, Fiver6565 said:

This has been my high end hope for Cowser. Imagine a Kyle Tucker batting third night in night out with the rest of these guys around him. Drool. 

I would say Cowser is going to be the player I thought Hays would become.  Good 1/2 season Hays w/ better OBP.  I think most of us would be happy w/ good 1/2 season of Hays stretched over full season w an extra 20 points of OBP.  I think he could become a perennial .800-850 OPS guy, which might not be an MVP level guy, but could get to a few All Star games. 

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Funny how the concept of the dreaded small sample size gets thrown out the window or outright ignored when someone’s swinging good. It’s propped up when someone’s swinging bad, as evidence that they’re not as bad as they appear to be. 
 

But now we’re dreaming about Kyle Tucker 2.0. 

Milkman's statcast batted ball numbers are off the charts this year, and those numbers become significant very quickly, in between 50-80 plate appearances. Even if you regress his performance to his career to date including his God awful MLB debut, you still end up with a player comparable to Kyle Tucker.  And his current level of performance is so high that it'd be hard not to see even more upside than that.

 

Even with the caveat that he hasnt hit the number of PAs needed for his batted ball data to be significant, I'm totally fine jumping the gun here, at least a little bit.  I'll say that homerism only accounts for 20% of that.

 

I also called for Cowser to be demoted fairly quickly last year for the same reason - his statcast  batted ball data was horrific.

Edited April 15 by Hallas

[Filmstudy]

I'll put an estimate in on Cowser now for the full season:

AB: 402

H: 110

Avg: .274

2B: 29

3B: 1

HR: 21

RBI: 82

BB + HBP: 51

OBP: .355

SLG: .507

OPS: .862

I don't think he will fully take an everyday role for the 2024 Orioles, which should help his rate stats and reduce his aggregate stats a little, but the HR on Sunday is going to go a long way to keeping him in the lineup full time. The projection I'm least certain taking the over is the BB+HBP total, which draws a lot on his 2023 and MilB patience.

I'm not sure if this will be good enough to get him the ROY, but he should be in the discussion.  These stats are very similar to what Casas posted last season in a much friendlier hitter's environment.