David Price's mechanics

[Obando]

This is a question for the guys on this board who analyze pitching mechanics, namely Lier X. I read your analysis on Brian Matusz and how his mechanics look like they could lead to injury. I'm curious to know what your take is on David Price?

Price and Matusz were the top college pitchers to come out of the last 2 drafts, both are left handed, both dominated in college, and both are expected to do great things in the majors. Price is said to have more dominant stuff and a better fastball than Matusz, but Matusz probably is a little more polished and has better secondary stuff. But they have similar builds (6'5, 210 or so) and generally are expected to be fast tracked to the majors (Price is already there).

So, when you look at David Price's mechanics, do you see similar concerns as you do with Matusz or does he look to have mechanics that will keep him healthy for a long time? The reason I'm so intrigued is because if you think Price also has mechanics that are condusive to injury, I think what this tells me is that in general, scouts seem to prefer a pitcher with the dominant numbers and questionable mechanics over the guy with decent numbers and solid mechanics. Lincecum would seem to be an example of this, and based on Lier's analysis, Strasburg would fall under this category as well. Say what you will, but Prior was that guy as well until he got hurt (and seems to support Lier's analysis that the scouting reports on Prior's "perfect" mechanics were incorrect).

This is a really interesting topic and I'm intrigued to know what you see when you evaluate David Price's mechanics.

[Obando]

While we're on this topic and speaking of guys who are said to be similar to Matusz, what about Cole Hamels' mechanics? I think when you are talking about Matusz, the 2 guys who are tied to him the most are probably Price & Hamels (Price in size & dominant numbers in college and Hamels in repetoire/stuff).

[crawdad]

Price's mechanics are pretty sweet. There are really no big warning flags. I would literally be shocked if anyone would say otherwise.

Matusz had itsy bitsy warning flags. I think some folks may have gotten turned up in Justin's article because he used terms like horrible. Those terms convey more certainty of injury that they should in my opinion.

One needs to remember that if you are a top pitching prospect . . . mechanics are not much of a concern. For a FA they are. It is a difference of money invested and a difference in how arm injuries come around. If you keep looking for the pitcher with great mechanics, you are going to wind up passing on useful talent and overdrafting.

[TJ Wrangler]

Price's mechanics are pretty sweet. There are really no big warning flags. I would literally be shocked if anyone would say otherwise.

Matusz had itsy bitsy warning flags. I think some folks may have gotten turned up in Justin's article because he used terms like horrible. Those terms convey more certainty of injury that they should in my opinion.

One needs to remember that if you are a top pitching prospect . . . mechanics are not much of a concern. For a FA they are. It is a difference of money invested and a difference in how arm injuries come around. If you keep looking for the pitcher with great mechanics, you are going to wind up passing on useful talent and overdrafting.

Yeah, there isn't anything I could say that jumps out from Price's mechanics. I don't think his mechanics increase his risk for injury.

As far as the Matusz article, from a mechanical standpoint, he didn't do much that I liked besides his pronation and showing the ball to 1b at the high cocked position. I think his mechanics could use a lot of work, but in retrospect, my word choice was a little too definitive. I'll be sure to avoid such certainty later on.

[TJ Wrangler]

While we're on this topic and speaking of guys who are said to be similar to Matusz, what about Cole Hamels' mechanics? I think when you are talking about Matusz, the 2 guys who are tied to him the most are probably Price & Hamels (Price in size & dominant numbers in college and Hamels in repetoire/stuff).

I just did a quick glance at Hamels. I saw a few signs of timing issues and hyperabduction.

I also notice that he fully extends his front leg at release, which is thought to boost velocity, but also put your shoulder, hips, back, and knees at risk.

[Obando]

Thanks for the replies guys! I have been watching baseball for a long time but never before have I been as intrigued about mechanics and concerns about long-term injury as I am now after reading your analyses of various pitchers.

I guess what I take from all of this is that every pitcher does what they feel is comfortable to them mechanically, even if in some cases it increases their chances for long-term injury. A lot of these pitchers get used to throwing a certain way at a young age, i.e. Lincecum (whose father told teams interested in drafting him that they better not try to change his mechanics), and although they probably are at greater risk of injury, if it's working for them it's kind of hard to convince a pitcher to fix what isn't broken (at least not up to that point).

I'm sure you could point to many cases of successful pitchers who had hyperabduction and timing issues that managed to stay healthy for the majority of their careers, while others who were successful suddenly succumb to their mechanical inefficiencies and get injured. But talent is talent and I doubt you could convince anyone to draft Kyle Gibson over Stephen Strasburg because he has cleaner mechanics and a greater chance of remaining healthy, despite lesser stuff than Strasburg. And I'm not suggesting that Lier would do this, because he himself has said he'd take Strasburg over Gibson despite the mechanical concerns.

I'll tell you what though, when you say that Hamels has some mechanical concerns that could lead to injury, it makes me feel better about Matusz because I think we'd all take Hamels for the O's staff in a heartbeat, and Matusz is most compared to Hamels among current pitchers in the game. That is why I agree with Crawdad's assessment that teams should be more wary of handing out the rich, long-term contracts to FA pitchers that have had success despite obvious mechanical issues. With draft choices, it's less risky because you aren't paying the same kind of money and you aren't looking 10-15 years into the future. You want to get the most out of them while they are young and then go from there. That's why I'm sure the Giants were more than happy to draft Lincecum and watch him dominate at a young age while his contract is reasonable and hope that they get enough out of him before his mechanical issues could potentially catch up with him later when he would be looking for a rich, long-term deal.

[Why Not?]

All of this should be taken with enormous grains of salt. After all, the guy widely considered to have the perfect pitching motion -- Mark Prior -- could never stay healthy.

[Old Beta]

With draft choices, it's less risky because you aren't paying the same kind of money...

Oh, for a first-round draft choice such as Matusz, I don't know...a few million here, a few million there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money.

[wickedwitch]

Why is this in the Orioles section?

[birrman54]

I'm not a huge fan of pitchers who seem to rely heavily on their slider as an out pitch. Price was throwing the slider +30% of the time last year.

[HeyIt'sMe]

If you're really that interested in mechanics, drivelinemechanics.com is about the best site out there.

Here's an article written on Price's mechanics last season right after his callup: http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/9/17/616374/pitching-mechanics-david-p

[CrimsonTribe]

Anybody got any thoughts on Derek Holland's mechanics? I'd love to know how he pumped it up from the low 90s to 98-99 mph over the course of last year.

[GeorgiaBird]

I'm not a huge fan of pitchers who seem to rely heavily on their slider as an out pitch. Price was throwing the slider +30% of the time last year.

Remember his age. Price has a change up but didn't trust it last year. That was his focus this off-season, and is the reason he will probably start in AAA. Eventually they hope he will have 3 out pitches.

[TGO]

All of this should be taken with enormous grains of salt. After all, the guy widely considered to have the perfect pitching motion -- Mark Prior -- could never stay healthy.

The theory that Prior had perfect mechanics has been pretty thoroughly debunked.

Ditto the theory that Lincecum had terrible mechanics, which you didn't mention but that I still read from time to time.

Yes, all of this mechanics stuff should be taken with a grain of salt, but it's important to remember that we're significantly more advanced in our knowledge of pitching mechanics than we were even five years ago. Prior had "perfect" mechanics because he had a clean, easy motion. That's almost all anyone looked at back then. You either had an "easy" delivery (perfect) or a "violent" delivery (terrible) or something in between.

We know better now. You can have a delivery that looks violent and it can still be pretty good (Lincecum does have a flaw in his arm action but is otherwise nearly perfect) or it can be terrible (B.J. Ryan). Likewise you can have a smooth delivery that is good (Maddux) or terrible (Prior).

[CrimsonTribe]

Remember his age. Price has a change up but didn't trust it last year. That was his focus this off-season, and is the reason he will probably start in AAA. Eventually they hope he will have 3 out pitches.

How long do you think they'll keep him in AAA?