Albert Suarez 2024

[Say O!]

50 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Suárez is giving up a lot of hard contact, but on high fly balls or ground balls. He has a .218 xBA and .314 xSLG, and a 82nd percentile barrel rate. I don’t know if that’s a tightrope he’s walking and it’s just a matter of time before the barrels come, or he’s going to be able to do that consistently to some degree - time will tell. 

What’s clear is the fastball plays well up in the zone and he’s been good at locating it there, getting a ton of whiffs and easy fly balls. The changeup looks promising too. I’m skeptical of the cutter, but it looks like it plays pretty well as a change of pace for glove side movement given the huge arm side run on the fastball and changeup. 

I still see a potentially dominant RP when I watch him, and worry that he’s not going to hold up as a SP given how much he runs out of gas later in these appearances. He also wasn’t able to hit the same velo he did in his second start after emptying the tank in his debut.

I fear if we keep running him out there as a SP, he’s going to eventually either throw more ~93-94 mph and lose effectiveness, or blow out his arm. I’m worried of jeopardizing a potentially dominant RP in that pursuit. However we have to keep rolling with him while he’s one of the 5 best SP and hope for the best, and he certainly is right now. I just hope he ends up in the pen due to there being 5 better, healthy SP before he has any injuries.

Agree with all of this.

[EddeeEddee]

6 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t see Wells coming back to the rotation. That was never the plan to begin with. Also, I’m not sure it’s a given that Means can make effective starts at the Bug League level right now. He’s been legit terrible against AAA hitters on a pretty consistent basis so far this season. Now Bradish on the other hand, if he can return, he will probably bump one of Suarez or Irvin to the pen (the one who is pitching the worse). 

If Suarez keeps performing (I don’t think his current level is realistic to expect) but at a good level for a back end starter, he stays.

I agree it feels like Wells will not go back to the rotation unless someone becomes ineffective or gets hurt.  This could be true for Means too, though there are many question marks right now with Means.

The only way I think Bradish goes to the pen rather than the rotation is if he's on a strict innings limit.  I think that's unlikely but possible.

By the way you got a couple of laugh emojis on your comment above.  I couldn't figure out why except you referred the majors as the "Bug League", which is actually is pretty funny.

[interloper]

7 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t see Wells coming back to the rotation. That was never the plan to begin with. Also, I’m not sure it’s a given that Means can make effective starts at the Bug League level right now. He’s been legit terrible against AAA hitters on a pretty consistent basis so far this season. Now Bradish on the other hand, if he can return, he will probably bump one of Suarez or Irvin to the pen (the one who is pitching the worse). 

If Suarez keeps performing (I don’t think his current level is realistic to expect) but at a good level for a back end starter, he stays.

Agree on Wells. I think if the Orioles know what's good for them, they will look at Wells' durability track record as a SP and then look at his elbow inflammation and say, enough is enough. You're a bullpen guy now. It was worth a shot with the Bradish injury, but Wells has a chance to really help solve the weakest part of this team in the bullpen. 

[Bemorewins]

29 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

I agree it feels like Wells will not go back to the rotation unless someone becomes ineffective or gets hurt.  This could be true for Means too, though there are many question marks right now with Means.

The only way I think Bradish goes to the pen rather than the rotation is if he's on a strict innings limit.  I think that's unlikely but possible.

By the way you got a couple of laugh emojis on your comment above.  I couldn't figure out why except you referred the majors as the "Bug League", which is actually is pretty funny.

LOL

[Three Run Homer]

Ah, the Bug League...

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

The main concern I have is the amount of hard contact and looking at statcast bears that out. 15th percentile in Avg Exit Velocity at 91 MPH and 7th percentile in Hard Hit % at 51.6%.

But he's 82nd percentile in barrel percentage and 92nd percentile in Whiff. I saw some some high EVs that were hit at 60 degree angles or more which were pop ups.

I'm not saying he's a long term piece. I'd need to see it for longer than two starts, but I like the stuff overall, especially if he can get his curveball over more often to give another look to the change and cutter.

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But he's 82nd percentile in barrel percentage and 92nd percentile in Whiff. I saw some some high EVs that were hit at 60 degree angles or more which were pop ups.

I'm not saying he's a long term piece. I'd need to see it for longer than two starts, but I like the stuff overall, especially if he can get his curveball over more often to give another look to the change and cutter.

Hitters can sit on the fastball and still can’t square it up when he keeps it up.  That’s a good fastball.   He seems to lose command when he starts getting tired which seems to be at 75-80 pitches.

By the way, he seems like our best fielding pitcher, better than GG winner Burnes.

Edited April 23 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hitters can sit on the fastball and still can’t square it up when he keeps it up.  That’s a good fastball.   He seems to lose command when he starts getting tired which seems to be at 75-80 pitches.

By the way, he seems like our best fielding pitcher, better than GG winner Burnes.

That to me is the biggest thing for him being a starter long term. He does seem to get dangerous around 70-75 pitches and the command goes. He's getting some early count outs that have helped him get into the 6th inning. When he doesn't get them, he may end up a guy who struggles to get out the 5th. 

IF, and that's a big IF, if he can work on back to back days and show he can warm up quickly and be effective, he would be a real weapon in the pen, but for now, I'm ok running him out every 5 days until he shows he's not capable of working into the 6th inning more time than not. 

[Rojo13]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, definitely a concern.

Hes a great story but really good pitchers don’t normally sit around in obscurity until their mid 30s.  
 

Don't tell that to anyone in the Suarez family. HIs brother had never appeared in a major league game until he was 31 and then signed a 5-year $46 million contract at the end of the season with the Padres.

Admittedly, 31 isn't mid-30s but it's still wild.

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

That to me is the biggest thing for him being a starter long term. He does seem to get dangerous around 70-75 pitches and the command goes. He's getting some early count outs that have helped him get into the 6th inning. When he doesn't get them, he may end up a guy who struggles to get out the 5th. 

IF, and that's a big IF, if he can work on back to back days and show he can warm up quickly and be effective, he would be a real weapon in the pen, but for now, I'm ok running him out every 5 days until he shows he's not capable of working into the 6th inning more time than not. 

Two starts and two wins - it's hard to imagine the O's doing anything other than continuing to run him out there while they await Bradish. Even if it's two sub-par teams that he beat, those are enormous wins considering we had no real idea what he'd give us. Gotta beat the teams you should beat. 

I've enjoyed watching Hyde take the ball from him both games. Big smile on his face, clapping - he loves it. 

[Frobby]

23 hours ago, Snutchy said:

I want to see how the league adjusts to him after another 2-3 starts before I start calling him a #3. There isn’t much reference material on him after his adjustments over spring. 
 

What’s also important are the adjustments he makes back. Still, he looks solid!

Whenever I get excited about the first two starts a pitcher has, I just remember Mike Wright, who pitched two seven inning shutouts out of the gate.  

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Whenever I get excited about the first two starts a pitcher has, I just remember Mike Wright, who pitched two seven inning shutouts out of the gate.  

Mike Wright?   Ouch!

[deward]

22 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, definitely a concern.

Hes a great story but really good pitchers don’t normally sit around in obscurity until their mid 30s.  
 

It’s possible they found something in him but the realistic thing is that this is short lived but perhaps there is a role for him in the pen and he can have a late blooming career as a reliever.  Nothing wrong with that.

Once upon a time, Suarez was rated the 9th best prospect in the Appy League and as high as the 12th best prospect in the Rays system. He also did get parts of two seasons in the majors with the Giants. I know he's been bouncing around Japan and Korea for the past few years, but he wasn't completely off the radar earlier in his career. Reality may well catch up to him soon, but pitchers have weird trajectories sometimes.

Edited April 24 by deward

[sportsfan8703]

Any chance he could pitch on Weds out of the pen?  Or are we thinking he’s off limits till Th/Friday?  The pen is taxed. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

When will he pitch again?