Holliday 2024 fWAR expectations

[dzorange]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

For those voting under, would you have voted under had I asked this question the day they brought him up?

Most likely. But him starting with an fWAR of -0.2 through 18 games of the season and needing a 3.1 fWAR through the next 144 games is the bigger factor for me,

I for sure would have voted the under if the fWAR was set at 3.1 the day he was called up.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

For those voting under, would you have voted under had I asked this question the day they brought him up?

I took the under, and I think I would have taken the under on 3 at the time of his call up.

Of course, I feel much stronger about it now.

The K rate is alarming.  

At the time of his call up, I thought no way he'd be sent back down.  

But now I think if he keeps King 50% of the time, they probably would send him back down after another 50 PAs or so of that.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

For those voting under, would you have voted under had I asked this question the day they brought him up?

Yes. 2.9 is pretty high as the O/U for a 20 year old playing 2B IMO. And we knew he wouldn't have Gunnar-type power, or even Westburg-type power, which further limits his ability to accrue WAR. 

Edited April 18 by interloper

[dzorange]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d take the under, and I probably would have said that the day he got called up.  ZiPS had him at 2.7 before the season began, and now has him at 2.2 the rest of the way (he’s at -0.2 now, so the updated full season projection would be 2.0).  And I’d be perfectly fine with a 2 WAR season from a 20-year old rookie.  Witt had a 2.4 rookie year at 21, and look at him now.  

Witt also did that hitting mostly 2nd and 3rd in the lineup. Holliday won't have as many opportunities to accumulate stats hitting 9th.

Although Holliday could certainly make up a lot of WAR defensively. But my point being that hitting 9th will give him less opportunities.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, dzorange said:

Witt also did that hitting mostly 2nd and 3rd in the lineup. Holliday won't have as many opportunities to accumulate stats hitting 9th.

Although Holliday could certainly make up a lot of WAR defensively. But my point being that hitting 9th will give him less opportunities.

If he starts hitting, he won’t be batting 9th.  

[Sports Guy]

That’s interesting.  My expectation was a 3.5-4 WAR type season. I still think he gets close to that.

[Fiver6565]

Worst case scenario, what is the number of at bats that would force them to make a decision on sending him back down?  Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but what would it truly take?  3 for 100 or something nuts like that?

The reality is, we've seen multiple examples just recently of a touted debut (though not as touted as Holliday), flailing around, then back to AAA for a reset, and then success in the majors.  Bradish, Rodriguez, Cowser are the clear examples of this, and Rutschman/Henderson had the struggle but didn't need the send-down.  It might require that for Holliday though.  Hopefully not, and still too soon to make that call for sure, but you can't just bat .050 for very long without getting the wrong kind of attention, even as a 20 year old rookie.  You don't have to do great, but you have to do better than that.

I do think he's looked better in some recent AB's, including the long fly ball yesterday where he just missed his first homer, but even w/ that, the K's haven't slowed down.  In reality, we are really just 1 or 2 batted balls away from this becoming a non-issue.  If that ball yesterday goes a few more feet onto the flag porch, this discussion is instantly different.

[maybenxtyr]

I took the under. I would have said something in the 2.5 range prior to the last week, but I think it's going to be a tall order to get there(2.5 or 3.0+) now. 

 

He's as talented as they come, but I've never felt like he would outperform Gunnar in regards to WAR. They'll be an excellent 1-2 punch though.

[TommyPickles]

The Orioles are favorites to win the AL this season. It is their best shot to win a WS they've had this century.

I'm excited Holliday is getting a shot. I think they should stick with it. But if he needs to be sent back down after another month, then so be it. He's 20 years old. It's not the end of the world.

 

[Malike]

I picked the over with the caveat he stays up all season of course and plays regularly as he should.

[Pickles]

45 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Worst case scenario, what is the number of at bats that would force them to make a decision on sending him back down?  Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but what would it truly take?  3 for 100 or something nuts like that?

The reality is, we've seen multiple examples just recently of a touted debut (though not as touted as Holliday), flailing around, then back to AAA for a reset, and then success in the majors.  Bradish, Rodriguez, Cowser are the clear examples of this, and Rutschman/Henderson had the struggle but didn't need the send-down.  It might require that for Holliday though.  Hopefully not, and still too soon to make that call for sure, but you can't just bat .050 for very long without getting the wrong kind of attention, even as a 20 year old rookie.  You don't have to do great, but you have to do better than that.

I do think he's looked better in some recent AB's, including the long fly ball yesterday where he just missed his first homer, but even w/ that, the K's haven't slowed down.  In reality, we are really just 1 or 2 batted balls away from this becoming a non-issue.  If that ball yesterday goes a few more feet onto the flag porch, this discussion is instantly different.

As I posted earlier, I think it's not purely about # of PAs but about how he looks in them.

Gunnar struggled early last year, but he was drawing walks and putting the ball in play.

Holliday is striking out 50% of his PAs.  If he continues to do that for another 50 PA, which is essentially 2 weeks of playing every day, I think they'd have to seriously consider sending him down.

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, Malike said:

I picked the over with the caveat he stays up all season of course and plays regularly as he should.

If he's playing well enough to get the over, they're not sending him down or curtailing his playing time.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

If he's playing well enough to get the over, they're not sending him down or curtailing his playing time.

That's not necessarily true as we see early on, even if we take your benchmark of 50 more PA's and he's not tearing the cover off of the ball I still think he adjusts and hits the over.

[Pickles]

Just now, Malike said:

That's not necessarily true as we see early on, even if we take your benchmark of 50 more PA's and he's not tearing the cover off of the ball I still think he adjusts and hits the over.

It could be that he's hitting .150 in two weeks, but looks better doing it and they keep rolling with him.

But I really have to think if he continues to K 50% of the time, his rope is not endless, and 75 PAs with 40 Ks would justify sending him down, and wouldn't be kneejerk imo.

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

It could be that he's hitting .150 in two weeks, but looks better doing it and they keep rolling with him.

But I really have to think if he continues to K 50% of the time, his rope is not endless, and 75 PAs with 40 Ks would justify sending him down, and wouldn't be kneejerk imo.

I still think they can carry him while he learns if the team plays well. He has nothing to prove in AAA, he has shown he can hit AAA pitching, he needs to see ML pitching, it's a huge jump in talent and there is no higher level.