If Coby Mayo Can Play Average ML 3B Defense

[eddie83]

20 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Was that a quote?   I believe the question was where does Mayo play long term and the answer was the middle of the order.

Yes. Exactly what Elias said. 

[interloper]

2 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Trade Gunnar for an absolute haul.  Particularly starting pitching.

I'm sorry, what?

[RZNJ]

40 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Could this be his career year (a season that was the outlier from his career norms)?

Who knows.  He had an mvp April last year and then was one of the worst hitters in baseball the rest of the year.   I hope it lasts but who’s crazy enough to bet on that?    He’s had good stretches offensively.   He’s never had a good season offensively.   Stay tuned.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Trade Gunnar for an absolute haul.  Particularly starting pitching.

Is this an attempt at a joke? A troll post? Something else? ... I'm not sure what to do with such a preposterous notion (unless it was stated in jest).

[Frobby]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Who knows.  He had an mvp April last year and then was one of the worst hitters in baseball the rest of the year.   I hope it lasts but who’s crazy enough to bet on that?    He’s had good stretches offensively.   He’s never had a good season offensively.   Stay tuned.

What’s the closest example you can think of a 29 year old player with a .634 career OPS who suddenly had a good year at the plate?  I’m sure it’s happened, but if so, it hasn’t happened often.  Of the ten players with the highest BB-ref similarity scores to Mateo through age 28, 7 of the 10 were out of the league at age 30 or sooner.  The other three were:

Don Zimmer - had a .652 OPS through age 28 but played another six seasons and managed a .720 OPS in his age 32 season.  

John Russell - had a .663 OPS through age 28 but played another four seasons.   
Had a .682 OPS at 29.  Subsequent seasons had minimal at bats.

Ryan Goins - had a .595 OPS through age 28, played four more years topping out at .681.

Based on this, I’d say there’s maybe a 20% chance of Mateo landing between .700 - .720 this year.  That would be awesome.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

What’s the closest example you can think of a 29 year old player with a .634 career OPS who suddenly had a good year at the plate?  I’m sure it’s happened, but if so, it hasn’t happened often.  Of the ten players with the highest BB-ref similarity scores to Mateo through age 28, 7 of the 10 were out of the league at age 30 or sooner.  The other three were:

Don Zimmer - had a .652 OPS through age 28 but played another six seasons and managed a .720 OPS in his age 32 season.  

John Russell - had a .663 OPS through age 28 but played another four seasons.   
Had a .682 OPS at 29.  Subsequent seasons had minimal at bats.

Ryan Goins - had a .595 OPS through age 28, played four more years topping out at .681.

Based on this, I’d say there’s maybe a 20% chance of Mateo landing between .700 - .720 this year.  That would be awesome.  

Is there anything you enjoy more than researching these things?   

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Is there anything you enjoy more than researching these things?   

Only when my wife is in the mood.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Only when my wife is in the mood.  

Hopefully, that long rain delay won’t have a lasting effect on her.

[Spy Fox]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Only when my wife is in the mood.  

Does she prefer Baseball Reference or Fangraphs?

[luismatos4prez]

Mateo's eventual slump shouldn't come to a surprise to anyone. He's not suddenly a good hitter. Just look at the batted ball metrics. His career wOBA is .279 and his xwOBA is .278 this year. He's not suddenly a good hitter.

Now, he's still a valuable player because of his defense and speed. Probably a 1-2 WAR guy, and an outstanding bench player.

I think Mayo, Holliday, and Silent J are going to be studs. I don't know how they all fit in the lineup, but Mike should find space for them. Mountcastle losing ABs is my top choice.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Does she prefer Baseball Reference or Fangraphs?

Frobby has his own ZIPS projections on how many times and when his wife is in the mood.   Her splits say May is always a good month but his hit rate is better on the road than home.    I would really like to know his whiff rate.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Does she prefer Baseball Reference or Fangraphs?

I hope people appreciate just how great of a post this is.  Bravo.  Lol

[btdart20]

33 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Does she prefer Baseball Reference or Fangraphs?

BRef doesn't track barrel rates.

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

BRef doesn't track barrel rates.

No, but they do leverage.

Low Leverage = After a couple of coctails

Medium Leverage = No coctails

High Leverage = No cocktails after sitting through a 2 hour rain delay.

Now, what kind of closer is @Frobby?

[OriolesMagic83]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No, but they do leverage.

Low Leverage = After a couple of coctails

Medium Leverage = No coctails

High Leverage = No cocktails after sitting through a 2 hour rain delay.

Now, what kind of closer is @Frobby?

He's like Kimbrel, can handle high leverage, but no back to backs.