The 2024 Trade Deadline

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

However, the Burnes trade stands out as the exception to ME’s typical trade MO. I think he’s going to get someone like Jose Soriano, who has a lot of blue on his Savant page, and  gives up a lot of very hard contact but mostly on the ground.

I wouldn’t trade Basallo for him, but the wonderful thing about the Angels is that they need everything.

Burnes is next level, but Flaherty was a legit trade.  Bad results but valid process threading the needle between "competitive window" and "perennial contender".  I suspect that will be the MO leading to the trade deadline as well.

[Just Regular]

Mike Elias' job certainly entails doing due diligence on Jack Flaherty again.

 

[frankwhite]

40 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

So with a team that has Gunnar Henderson at age 22 (getting ready to turn 23), Adley Rutshman at 26, Jordan Westburg at 25, Colton Cowser at 24, Grayson Rodriguez at 24 (will be 25 later this season after the season), Ryan Mountcastle at 27, plus all of the talent at AAA; you think this team can crash and burn after this year? 

Were you just talking in hypotheticals? Or were you being serious in application to what the Orioles have right now?

I would challenge ANYONE to cite how one or two realistic trades can have next season or the season after that or even the one after that be 2018 or even 2017.

IMO we have at least 3 more World Series shots regardless of what we do at the deadline. And if we do a few extensions to players like Adley and Gunnar, we will have several more shots after that!

I struggle to see how that "window" talk or even comparisons to 2017/2018 are relevant to this situation (except that it is the same org and they wear pretty much the same uniforms except for the City Connect shirts).

Yeah, too much young talent for that to happen next year, unless some major regression and injuries happen.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

You bring up some of the reasons that Elias has so much to consider.   Santander is a FA and both Hays and Mullins are certainly not guaranteed to be brought back at this time.  So I don't see it as jettisoning "all vets" but potentially moving on from the questionable production of Hays and Mullins.  You don't believe it's wise to have rookies like Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad up next season and learning to hit big league pitching at the same time.  I understand.  Coming up at mid-season could be an issue, but to start next season Elias, IMHO, will have no qualms in having all three up.  He's been building an elite pipeline for five years to get to this point; a point of annual WS contention with tremendous talent filling out our roster.  That talent will be ready come 2025, if not already. Unless something changes, Urias, Hays and Mullins will not prevent that.  

Who will be playing where is one of those things Elias will need to determine.  It's going to be intriguing to see how it all plays out.

1) I don't think it's a bad idea to consider moving on from non-productive vets like Hays and possibly Mullins as well.

2) I'm almost starting to move toward the opinion of re-signing Santander. He is likely not to require a major financial commitment (3/4 years at modest money). And I believe because most of his contributions come from counting stats (homers and RBIs) he is likely to be undervalued in this era of statcast baseball.

3) Elias has never (IMO for good reason) decided to take the approach of multiple/several first timers learning on the job at all at once. The potential for that to go sideways represents too much risk, when you are trying to win a World Series.

4) You didn't just mention moving on from Mullins and Hays. But you also mentioned Santander, O'Hearn, and Mountcastle. That is FIVE regulars and replacing them all with players who have never proven that they can hit Major League pitching. I would almost bet that there aren't 5 first timers in all of MLB who are succeeding this season on their first try. Now obviously, for Holliday next season will be his second try. And I guess 3rd for Stowers, maybe 4th depending how you look at it. And second/third for Kjerstad, Norby (I guess second). Though some of these guys stints were so short, I don't know if they could even get/make much of it some of those previous times.

5) If we make it to the postseason (which we are almost assured to do) win or lose this year in the Fall, it will be a very poor message to send to the fanbase to not spend/add in the offseason. With a payroll this low (ranked what 25th?) you should not be cutting cost and especially with a multi-billionaire owner.

6) If you don't trade any of these players this season, how do you propose that we get better/get the piece(s) that we need?

7) Even with all of these new young players and even if all of them performed right away, where is the pitching going to come from next season in order to legitimately contend (if you don't spend in the offseason)?

[Malike]

4 minutes ago, frankwhite said:

Yeah, too much young talent for that to happen next year, unless some major regression and injuries happen.

Nobody thought Toronto would not cash in on their "window". It slammed shut on them and they had a lot of young talent that regressed pretty hard. Cautionary tales are out there.

[frankwhite]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

Nobody thought Toronto would not cash in on their "window". It slammed shut on them and they had a lot of young talent that regressed pretty hard. Cautionary tales are out there.

Yeah, it could happen for sure. But I think it's still highly unlikely, for next year. 

[Malike]

Just now, frankwhite said:

Yeah, it could happen for sure. But I think it's still highly unlikely, for next year. 

I don't disagree, it just wouldn't be unprecedented is all.

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Burnes is next level, but Flaherty was a legit trade.  Bad results but valid process threading the needle between "competitive window" and "perennial contender".  I suspect that will be the MO leading to the trade deadline as well.

I disagree about the Flaherty and Fujinama "acquisitions" (and I use that term VERY LOOSELY) last season. They both represented "unforced errors" and untimely hedging. Many (including myself) questioned the quality of the front part of our rotation beyond Bradish. It was hard to see that we had excellent depth in the starting rotation. But not the kind of quality up top to succeed through multiple rounds of the playoffs. Flaherty was literally one of the worse starting pitchers that was available. I understand that Elias was working on Cease. But you have to have a credible plan B. You can jump from plan A to plan F (break glass in case of emergency). Flaherty was so bad with us (IMO predictably) that he wasn't an option to start a postseason game and Fujinama wasn't even worth considering to appear on the roster. 

IMO those were hedging trades that were made trying to be as cheap as possible when the roster was already as lost costing as could be. I understand that spending is inevitably an ownership choice. So, hopefully without the stench of Scrooge McAngelos around this time, Elias won't have such limiting hinderances to deal with.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

So with a team that has Gunnar Henderson at age 22 (getting ready to turn 23), Adley Rutshman at 26, Jordan Westburg at 25, Colton Cowser at 24, Grayson Rodriguez at 24 (will be 25 later this season after the season), Ryan Mountcastle at 27, plus all of the talent at AAA; you think this team can crash and burn after this year? 

 

The 2020-2024 Chicago White Sox should be a cautionary tale for all of us.  A little bad luck and a few bad decisions is all it takes.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

The 2020-2024 Chicago White Sox should be a cautionary tale for all of us.  A little bad luck and a few bad decisions is all it takes.

Bringing in a has-been manager with an arrest record isn't a move I see Elias making.

[Just Regular]

It is crazy to think we could be a month away from Toronto being over, but Elias tanked a lot more and the Orioles seem better at development.

Am I forgetting anyone?    They were the three MLB legacies - Vlad, Bo, Biggio, and then Manoah.    Well supported with mercenaries, perhaps culminating with the "he's not on the jet" moment with perhaps the greatest.

If he comes to the 2024 trade market, Vlad for me would join Trout as one of the very few bats who is not already an Oriole who could be worth it to unseat some current Oriole or Oriole minor leaguer.

[Greg Pappas]

55 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

3) Elias has never (IMO for good reason) decided to take the approach of multiple/several first timers learning on the job at all at once. The potential for that to go sideways represents too much risk, when you are trying to win a World Series.

4) You didn't just mention moving on from Mullins and Hays. But you also mentioned Santander, O'Hearn, and Mountcastle. That is FIVE regulars and replacing them all with players who have never proven that they can hit Major League pitching. I would almost bet that there aren't 5 first timers in all of MLB who are succeeding this season on their first try. Now obviously, for Holliday next season will be his second try. And I guess 3rd for Stowers, maybe 4th depending how you look at it. And second/third for Kjerstad, Norby (I guess second). Though some of these guys stints were so short, I don't know if they could even get/make much of it some of those previous times.

 

3) Elias has never had the same circumstances.  He may not trade any of his top prospects, so the possibility exists they will be coming up to start the season.  Mayo and Kjerstad have nothing left to prove at AAA and would already be playing for half (or more) of the teams in the league if they weren't O's prospects.  I agree with you that having essentially 4 or 5 rookies all starting at the same time is not ideal, but we'll see it how it plays out.

4) I mentioned Santander as someone that may move on.  How is that wrong?  He is a FA.  I think O'Hearn stays and wasn't implying his not being brought back, but rather that he shouldn't be counted on to start regularly in RF.  I mentioned Mountcastle returning as a starter, but also said the possibility exists of his being dealt this off-season to make room for Mayo.  I'd say the odds are low, but a possibility.

Again... I'm not saying what will happen, but rather that Elias has many decisions to make/consider because of the current roster construction and pending construction next year and beyond.

BTW, I also would not be opposed to a three-year type extension for Santander.  That could make sense, all things considered.

Edited June 18 by Greg Pappas

[Greg Pappas]

49 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

6) If you don't trade any of these players this season, how do you propose that we get better/get the piece(s) that we need?

7) Even with all of these new young players and even if all of them performed right away, where is the pitching going to come from next season in order to legitimately contend (if you don't spend in the offseason)?

6) We very well may trade one or more.  That would go into the equation for Elias to consider.  Perhaps having the top or one of the top farm systems in the game can offer plenty without losing any of our Big 4?  I've seen it happen plenty of times before.  

7) I get this too.  Where indeed?  Perhaps we acquire Fedde from the CWS... and he cost us no one in the Top 5?  Maybe Cal Quantrill?  Again, we have an excellent farm system.  But if Elias feels he needs to trade Mayo or Kjerstad, etc, in order to do what's best for the franchise, that's what he'll do.

[RZNJ]

Westburg and Cowser this year.  Mayo and Holliday next year.

1B Mountcastle

2B Holliday

SS Henderson

3B Westburg

C Rutschman

LF Cowser

CF Mullins?

RF Mayo

DH O’Hearn

McCann or ?, Mateo, Stowers, Norby

Kjerstad is the mystery man and we will see how the juggle Mayo vs Holliday.    Now they could offer the QO to Santander.  If he accepts, Mountcastle goes and you re-arrange.

Anyway, I’m thinking Kjerstad is our main trading chip but you never know with Elias.   I’m still thinking he may stand pat with the starters and just upgrade the back end of the pen.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Burnes is next level, but Flaherty was a legit trade.  Bad results but valid process threading the needle between "competitive window" and "perennial contender".  I suspect that will be the MO leading to the trade deadline as well.

Yes, I really don’t have a problem with the Flaherty trade. The cost was minimal.

I think that now, we need something a little bit more reliable.