Choices: how many big long term contracts will the O’s be able to afford?

[Hallas]

21 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Maybe? His thought process would probably be that's through age 33. Which means his next contract isn't going to be anything like that big. Most catchers are in steep decline by then, or shortly thereafter. And the idea you could move him to another position is silly. So he might hold out for more, knowing this is his only big contract.

Mickey Tettleton had a wRC+ of 127 and 129 and moved off being a full-time catcher, but still caught around 50 games a year, at age 32.  His defense deteriorated really badly for those two seasons though; he was -7 and -8 in TZ despite only catching 50 games.

[Allan Bryant]

8 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Maybe? His thought process would probably be that's through age 33. Which means his next contract isn't going to be anything like that big. Most catchers are in steep decline by then, or shortly thereafter. And the idea you could move him to another position is silly. So he might hold out for more, knowing this is his only big contract.

If  the Orioles made that kind of big contract offer & Adley turns it down ? 
Then Elias should sell him at trade deadline with a year and half control left . Or let Adley finish his deal and apply QO tag on him .  They dont need another Joe Mauer/ Buster Posey deadweight.  

Edited June 5 by Allan Bryant

[Jagwar]

I'm thinking the O's lay a turd in at least one of the next 4-5 seasons. Perhaps a tangential value analysis for guys like Adley, Gunnar and GRod might be how well the O's can re-stock the farm system by trading them as opposed to extending them.  

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, Hallas said:

Mickey Tettleton had a wRC+ of 127 and 129 and moved off being a full-time catcher, but still caught around 50 games a year, at age 32.  His defense deteriorated really badly for those two seasons though; he was -7 and -8 in TZ despite only catching 50 games.

He was an unusual case. Most catchers stop being productive in their early-to-mid 30s, and that includes the best ones who ever lived. Bench tried to move to third at 34 and was done at 35 after two mediocre seasons. Simmons below replacement from 34-on. Piazza was replacement level three of his last four seasons. Mauer stopped catching at 30. Dickey's last 110-game season was at 32. Carter's last good year at 32.

There are  few counter-examples like Fisk, who magically had one of his best three-year runs starting at 40 just when magical performances became suspiciously common,, but not all that many like that.

[Safelykept]

On 6/4/2024 at 4:51 PM, Sports Guy said:

So that’s the question, how long do you go with him?

6 years is ideal but I doubt he signs that. Over 8 years is a bad idea.

So, 6-8 years. 
 

2025: 7M

2026: 15M

2027: 20M

2028: 28M

2029: 28M

2030: 30M

2031: 35M

7/163…Does he sign that?

That would finish his contract at what 33 years old. Interesting.

[sportsfan8703]

Burnes, Gunnar, Adley. Those are the extensions we need. 

[Sports Guy]

 

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Kenny is right and honestly if you aren't considering price the conversation should start and end with the age/position advantages Gunnar has.

Now, Adley may cost less to extend which is one reason it could happen that they ultimately extend him and not Gunnar. 

[Frobby]

On 6/4/2024 at 11:04 PM, Allan Bryant said:

If  the Orioles made that kind of big contract offer & Adley turns it down ? 
Then Elias should sell him at trade deadline with a year and half control left . Or let Adley finish his deal and apply QO tag on him .  They dont need another Joe Mauer/ Buster Posey deadweight.  

Too far in the future to worry about.  What if we’re sitting on two consecutive World Series trophies and looking like a contender again?   You aren’t trading him then no matter what, I’d guess.  

[Can_of_corn]

On 6/5/2024 at 1:04 AM, Allan Bryant said:

If  the Orioles made that kind of big contract offer & Adley turns it down ? 
Then Elias should sell him at trade deadline with a year and half control left . Or let Adley finish his deal and apply QO tag on him .  They dont need another Joe Mauer/ Buster Posey deadweight.  

What Buster Posey deadweight?

That one season where his OPS+ was under 100?

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Kenny is right and honestly if you aren't considering price the conversation should start and end with the age/position advantages Gunnar has.

Now, Adley may cost less to extend which is one reason it could happen that they ultimately extend him and not Gunnar. 

As soon as Phillips started citing catchers ERA, he lost the argument.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 6/4/2024 at 4:30 PM, Sports Guy said:

I think this is the wrong question.

Paying up for elite talent isn’t what you look at. Look at those middling deals.  They really drive up the payroll too.

Look at Atlanta right now.

Ozuna, Jimenez, Morton, Iglesias, D’Arnaud, Minter and Johnson.

Those guys are making 83.2M.  That’s about 1/3 of their payroll.

Some of those guys are good and even above average players at times but other times not so much.

I think you should be able to get their normal production for a fraction of the cost.

All the extensions are one thing but these deals can be very harmful to the payroll. 

 

Ozuna is near the MLB lead for RBI.  He seems like he's playing better than a lot of Atlanta's elite talent.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Ozuna is near the MLB lead for RBI.  He seems like he's playing better than a lot of Atlanta's elite talent.

Yea, for this season.

As I said, any of those guys are capable for a season or 2 but the odds are that they won’t live up to larger contracts and that you don’t want to get into expensive deals with guys like that.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Both! Doesn’t have to be an either/or proposition. STL Cards, similar market sized team have had more than one big contract occupying the roster at one time.

[Allan Bryant]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What Buster Posey deadweight?

That one season where his OPS+ was under 100?

His 2018 season played 105 gms , 5 hrs , OPS 741 and 2019 played 114 gms , 7 hrs with OPS .688 . His catcher position took a toll on his offensive stats