Bring up Mayo already!!

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I disagree that Urias is not a plus 3B.   He is.   He just is not a good hitter.  He is a good defensive replacement if Mayo in up.

What is happening here is that the O's as a team are tired.   Too many games in a row.  And they  are not hitting good pitching.    2 runs per games is not going to win many games.     Good pitching is what they are going to see in the playoffs so they need to reconfigure to try to hit better.

Mayo is not a bad idea.   Yes they give up some defense for offense but they need to see if that is a winning formula.

For now I would try Mayo up and Cowser optioned.  Cowser has not been hitting.  He could use some time at AAA to get going.  Make some adjustments.    Cowser is one of the O's better defensive  outfielders but Mullins and Hays are both hitting better recently and Santander is hot.   They have to see what the impact of Kjerstad is while he is up.   He has to play.

I think you are remembering the Urias from two years ago when he was surprisngly good at 3B, here's where he stacks up now.

He's 15th percentile in range, 19th percentile in arm strength, and I'm surprised he's even 29th percentile in spring speed.

What Urias doesn't do very often is make errors, which is one of his best skill sets. The Orioles do value defense and probably why they reluctant to bring up Mayo and install him as the everyday 3B, moving Westburg to 3B.

Mayo has committed just 3 errors in his last 29 games at 3B. He will make plays that Urias or even Westburg can't because of plus, plus arm. 

I personally think his offensive potential outweighs the slight negative that his defense will bring. 

 

[Rbiggs2525]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I think you are remembering the Urias from two years ago when he was surprisngly good at 3B, here's where he stacks up now.

He's 15th percentile in range, 19th percentile in arm strength, and I'm surprised he's even 29th percentile in spring speed.

What Urias doesn't do very often is make errors, which is one of his best skill sets. The Orioles do value defense and probably why they reluctant to bring up Mayo and install him as the everyday 3B, moving Westburg to 3B.

Mayo has committed just 3 errors in his last 29 games at 3B. He will make plays that Urias or even Westburg can't because of plus, plus arm. 

I personally think his offensive potential outweighs the slight negative that his defense will bring. 

 

100%. Urias arm looks weaker and actions look slower. He is a slow twitch player in almost everything he does. There’s a reason Judge and Soto play the outfield over Trent Grisham. The offense far outweighs the defense. I would also argue we have a large degree of fly ball pitchers.

[eddie83]

47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Urias had a 2.7 fwar in 2022.  0.7 last year.  0.0 this year.   If you think Coby Mayo is going to be significantly worse and think he’s going to sabotage the Orioles chances by giving him Urias 3B AB’s then by all means, argue that he shouldn’t be brought up.

I’d argue that the upside, short term and long term, is too much not to take that chance now?    
 

And bWAR he has been 1.8 and 0.5 the last two years after 3.8 in 22. 
 

Playing Mayo is not going to sabotage the season. I don’t get why you would lose an asset to unnecessarily. 
 

The team is 2.0 games out of 1st. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think you are remembering the Urias from two years ago when he was surprisngly good at 3B, here's where he stacks up now.

He's 15th percentile in range, 19th percentile in arm strength, and I'm surprised he's even 29th percentile in spring speed.

What Urias doesn't do very often is make errors, which is one of his best skill sets. The Orioles do value defense and probably why they reluctant to bring up Mayo and install him as the everyday 3B, moving Westburg to 3B.

Mayo has committed just 3 errors in his last 29 games at 3B. He will make plays that Urias or even Westburg can't because of plus, plus arm. 

I personally think his offensive potential outweighs the slight negative that his defense will bring. 

 

  How the hell is Urias faster than 28% of the league?  Is that 28% all catchers?

[Rbiggs2525]

Just now, eddie83 said:

And bWAR he has been 1.8 and 0.5 the last two years after 3.8 in 22. 
 

Playing Mayo is not going to sabotage the season. I don’t get why you would lose an asset to unnecessarily. 
 

The team is 2.0 games out of 1st. 

Hays, Mullins and Cowser all have options.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, eddie83 said:

And bWAR he has been 1.8 and 0.5 the last two years after 3.8 in 22. 
 

Playing Mayo is not going to sabotage the season. I don’t get why you would lose an asset to unnecessarily. 
 

The team is 2.0 games out of 1st. 

I have even a big Urias supporter and I think he’s a useful guy but @Tony-OH post was pretty spot on.

The defense is subpar and his value on the bases is minimal.

He will take a walk and give you the occasional homer and when he gets hot, he can help lengthen the lineup but Urias is just not the type of player that should be holding back a high end prospect that has the upside Mayo does, especially in a lineup that needs right handed power.

I don’t want to lose Urias for free but hard to imagine you couldn’t trade him for something.

[eddie83]

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Are we talking about Norby at 2B or LF?   He’s not going to be playing everyday at either spot and probably hardly at all at 2B.   I honestly don’t know how he is in LF.  He looked fine the few times I’ve watched Norfolk games and Tony seems to agree.   He was always an “average at best” or “offensive 2B” but no one ever called him a liability there.

I don’t ignore the struggles of Holliday.  I also don’t ignore the improvements of Rutschman, Henderson, Westburg after an initial adjustment period.  Cowser seems to still be going through it.  If you want the best team come October you can stick with what you know with Urias and Hays.   I’d rather take my chances with Mayo and Norby.

As far as depth, I’ve got Westburg, Mateo, and Norby at 2B with Holliday at Norfolk.   At 3B I got Mayo and Westburg.   In LF I got Cowser, Kjerstad, Norby with Billy Cook at Norfolk.   Are worried about not having three 3B?

You don’t know how Norby is in LF but want to lose Hays to find out?

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is a really tough call.

All offseason, I kept asking the same thing…how many young players/rookies is too many at one time?

The other side to that question is, how many middling vets is too many?

At some point this year, the Os have to make room for Holliday (when does he come back from his injury and then get the at bats he needs to get back up to speed?) and Mayo.

They are both too good, too talented and have too much upside not to do that.

How does that happen?

The Os are not going to play Mayo at third if Holliday is on the team.  So unless he stays down all year (doubtful), the Os need to play Mayo elsewhere. He obviously can DH and play first on occasion but RF is looking less and less likely for the 2024 season.

If you have both of them on the team, the definite other players would be Gunnar, Adley, Westburg, McCann, Cowser, OHearn, Mounty and Santander.  
 

If you have Holliday, Westburg, Mayo and Gunnar all on the team, you do not need either Urias or Mateo although I suspect one of them will be here.

That leaves you with 2 more spots for Kjerstad, Mullins and Hays.

Hays, at least on his current trajectory, is a RH OFer that is hitting lefties well this year. Mullins represents CF defense that you don’t have outside of Cowser and Kjerstad gives you more upside than either but is the likely odd man out.

So, to get both Holliday and Mayo here, you have to trade one of the UTI IFers and likely say bye to Kjerstad again.(maybe he is traded but at least sent down)

Seems to me that the best case scenario would be to trade Urias or Mateo and deal one of Mountcastle, OHearn or Santander but I tend to doubt they would deal either of them during the season.

Mayo can come up to play third for now but when Holliday is ready, the problem arises. Of course, this assumes Mayo comes up and performs well.

Many larger deals in MLB end up with at least one ML player going back to the other team, so I think there is good potential for someone(s) being dealt.

And here I go again forgetting about Norby and Stowers. They deserve consideration as well.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I think you are remembering the Urias from two years ago when he was surprisngly good at 3B, here's where he stacks up now.

He's 15th percentile in range, 19th percentile in arm strength, and I'm surprised he's even 29th percentile in spring speed.

What Urias doesn't do very often is make errors, which is one of his best skill sets. The Orioles do value defense and probably why they reluctant to bring up Mayo and install him as the everyday 3B, moving Westburg to 3B.

Mayo has committed just 3 errors in his last 29 games at 3B. He will make plays that Urias or even Westburg can't because of plus, plus arm. 

I personally think his offensive potential outweighs the slight negative that his defense will bring. 

 

I know what I am watching.  Yes Urias is not fast and never has been.  But neither was Brooks.  Speed is not a big requirement to play plus defense at 3B.    And I have never thought of Urias' arm as plus but its  good enough to make all the plays at 3B.   

What Urias has is great reflexes.    One or two quick steps and a dive.   Hot shots rarely get passed him.   That is what won him a GG and he still has it.  I agree about him no making many errors.

But the team is or should be looking for more offense.   That makes Urias a backup/defensvie replacement to Mayo.    That least its worth a try to boost the offense.

Edited Tuesday at 13:40 by wildcard

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have even a big Urias supporter and I think he’s a useful guy but @Tony-OH post was pretty spot on.

The defense is subpar and his value on the bases is minimal.

He will take a walk and give you the occasional homer and when he gets hot, he can help lengthen the lineup but Urias is just not the type of player that should be holding back a high end prospect that has the upside Mayo does, especially in a lineup that needs right handed power.

I don’t want to lose Urias for free but hard to imagine you couldn’t trade him for something.

Keeping Urias around is about depth and floor. Hitting is not an issue for this team.  I want Mayo playing vs LHP and have said that repeatedly. 
 

 

Why are we worried about the upside of Mayo? We know the kid has great potential. If Mountcastle, O’Hearn or Santander get hurt call him up. Wait till September. 
 

You have to play the what if game. What if an injury happens after the deadline? What if Mayo scuffles? I’m about keeping as many options open as possible. Mayo is an option, once Urias is gone he is gone. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Keeping Urias around is about depth and floor. Hitting is not an issue for this team.  I want Mayo playing vs LHP and have said that repeatedly. 
 

 

Why are we worried about the upside of Mayo? We know the kid has great potential. If Mountcastle, O’Hearn or Santander get hurt call him up. Wait till September. 
 

You have to play the what if game. What if an injury happens after the deadline? What if Mayo scuffles? I’m about keeping as many options open as possible. Mayo is an option, once Urias is gone he is gone. 

Ok, let’s play the what if game.

These are your current IFers, not including first base only guys:

Holliday, Mayo, Westburg, Urias, Mateo, Henderson and Norby.

If Urias is gone, you still have 3 players capable of playing third, 4 players capable of playing second and 4 players capable of playing SS,

And of that group, 2 players who have played OF and others who have at least taken fly balls and have the arm and athleticism to potential play there in emergency situations.

In other words, I think the team has plenty of contingency plans.

As for the comment about being worried about the upside of Mayo…I tend to want my best players on the team when I’m trying to win a WS. 

[Tony-OH]

Let's talk about Mayo for a bit. I made most of this post in his minor league thread but feel it's relevant here.

Coby Mayo look ready for major league pitching, but he's got one concern that major league pitchers will attempt to exploit and that's breaking balls. Here's what Mayo has done this year against them.

Now his wOBA (.283) shows he's not dominated by them although it's below average, but his xwOBA (.223) suggests he gets a lot of flairs and soft contact hits which is pretty common across most hitters on breaking balls when you compare the two.

Now the good news is he absolutely murders fastballs.

And he does really well against offspeed (changeups).

 So the challenge he will face at the major league level will be steady diet of breaking balls until he proves to them he can hit them.

Now, Mayo is a smart hitter and if he knows a breaking ball is coming he can mash it, so if they make a mistake, he's going to make them pay, which might mean they'll try to challenge him at times as well.

Ether way, I think his bat is absolutely ready to be a middle of the order hitter with the Orioles.

As for the glove, he's made 3 errors in his last 29 games at 3B and his rocket arm will make some plays that Urias or Westburg will not.

So the question is, who goes if Mayo comes up?

I'd say send Cowser back to AAA and keep Urias as the backup 3B and pinch hitter against left-handers late in games if Mullins is coming up in situation that we'd rather have a right-handed hitter.

I realize Cowser is the backup CF and Hays is no longer fast enough to be out there, but I still think Mateo can back up CF and be fine.

Mayo is going to bring a middle of the order hitter to the lineup. He may have some struggles at times like all rookies, but he also is going to bring a dangerous bat to the lineup that is going to absolutely put fear in opposing pitchers, unlike Urias.

With Mayo on the team, the bench would be pretty full of right-handed hitters with Hays, McCann, Urias and Mateo.

Hays could spell both Kjerstad and Santander on occasion
Mateo could spell Mullins, Gunnar and Westburg
Urias could spell Mayo and be a defensive replacement late in games
McCann is the backup catcher (unfortunately since he looks like a guy at the end of his major league usefulness but that's another thread.

The lineup on most days:

1. Henderson - SS
2. Adley - C
3. Mayo - 3B (yes, I know they won't start him here but he's going to end up here)
4. Santander - RF
5. O'Hearn - DH against righties, Adley against lefties
6. Westburg - 2B
7. Kjerstad - LF
8. Mountcastle -1B
9. Mullins - CF

Kjerstad and O'Hearn could switch depending on who's hot and Mountcastle and Westburg could bat 3B with May down there which is where they will probably start him in the lineup initially.

To me, this is the best team they can put on the field right now.

As for the Holliday question, he's got to get his defense down and honestly, Mayo looks more ready for major league pitching still. 

 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's talk about Mayo for a bit. I made most of this post in his minor league thread but feel it's relevant here.

Coby Mayo look ready for major league pitching, but he's got one concern that major league pitchers will attempt to exploit and that's breaking balls. Here's what Mayo has done this year against them.

Now his wOBA (.283) shows he's not dominated by them although it's below average, but his xwOBA (.223) suggests he gets a lot of flairs and soft contact hits which is pretty common across most hitters on breaking balls when you compare the two.

Now the good news is he absolutely murders fastballs.

And he does really well against offspeed (changeups).

 So the challenge he will face at the major league level will be steady diet of breaking balls until he proves to them he can hit them.

Now, Mayo is a smart hitter and if he knows a breaking ball is coming he can mash it, so if they make a mistake, he's going to make them pay, which might mean they'll try to challenge him at times as well.

Ether way, I think his bat is absolutely ready to be a middle of the order hitter with the Orioles.

As for the glove, he's made 3 errors in his last 29 games at 3B and his rocket arm will make some plays that Urias or Westburg will not.

So the question is, who goes if Mayo comes up?

I'd say send Cowser back to AAA and keep Urias as the backup 3B and pinch hitter against left-handers late in games if Mullins is coming up in situation that we'd rather have a right-handed hitter.

I realize Cowser is the backup CF and Hays is no longer fast enough to be out there, but I still think Mateo can back up CF and be fine.

Mayo is going to bring a middle of the order hitter to the lineup. He may have some struggles at times like all rookies, but he also is going to bring a dangerous bat to the lineup that is going to absolutely put fear in opposing pitchers, unlike Urias.

With Mayo on the team, the bench would be pretty full of right-handed hitters with Hays, McCann, Urias and Mateo.

Hays could spell both Kjerstad and Santander on occasion
Mateo could spell Mullins, Gunnar and Westburg
Urias could spell Mayo and be a defensive replacement late in games
McCann is the backup catcher (unfortunately since he looks like a guy at the end of his major league usefulness but that's another thread.

The lineup on most days:

1. Henderson - SS
2. Adley - C
3. Mayo - 3B (yes, I know they won't start him here but he's going to end up here)
4. Santander - RF
5. O'Hearn - DH against righties, Adley against lefties
6. Westburg - 2B
7. Kjerstad - LF
8. Mountcastle -1B
9. Mullins - CF

Kjerstad and O'Hearn could switch depending on who's hot and Mountcastle and Westburg could bat 3B with May down there which is where they will probably start him in the lineup initially.

To me, this is the best team they can put on the field right now.

As for the Holliday question, he's got to get his defense down and honestly, Mayo looks more ready for major league pitching still. 

 

Great post although I see no reason behind sending Cowser down.  I would look to make it work with him here but overall, I agree with your assessment on Mayo.

Its time. 

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Great post although I see no reason behind sending Cowser down.  I would look to make it work with him here but overall, I agree with your assessment on Mayo.

Its time. 

The thing is, Elias hates to lose useful players and the only other person that would go would be Urias. I want to see Kjerstad get everyday PAs in LF and Cowser needs to play everyday and learn how to hit offspeed pitches. He may not see the same quality as the ones in the major leagues, but he has options and he's a 4th/5th outfielder if Kjerstad is here to get everyday PAs. 

[Moose Milligan]

42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I know what I am watching.  Yes Urias is not fast and never has been.  But either was Brooks.   

This is hilarious