Poll - Bigger Need… Game Three level SP or Elite Closer?

[LGOrioles]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think our recent 5 game losing streak gave us a unique perspective that we haven't really had since Adley made his debut in 2022...  How valuable is a closer if they don't have a lead to protect?  Why trade for an elite closer when an elite closer affecting the game hinges on the Game 3 SP pitching well enough to even create a save situation?

Good point. No Bautista didn’t really hurt last year in the playoffs. Starting Kremer did. 

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

Obligatory post that although we all worry so much about how bad our pitching is (myself included)............we are currently tied with NYY for a 3.39 ERA.  Good for 3rd in all of baseball.

 

So a lot of other teams would love to have pitching as 'poor' as we do.

Thank you for this reality check. 

[ChipTait]

How nice was seven solid innings from Grayson last night?  That's the winning ticket!

When you have to start the "reliever roulette wheel" in the 5th inning, you're asking for disaster.

They used to say, "You're only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher." Now, it's morphed into "You're only as good as the next reliever."  Fewer relievers used = better chances.

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

Obligatory post that although we all worry so much about how bad our pitching is (myself included)............we are currently tied with NYY for a 3.39 ERA.  Good for 3rd in all of baseball.

 

So a lot of other teams would love to have pitching as 'poor' as we do.

Those numbers our with Bradish starting and Suarez giving us a miraculous sub 2 ERA.  Bradish is out and the miracle with Suarez has worn off.  Suarez is still a good arm, but not a sub 2 ERA SP.  

Burnes and Grayson are fine options for the playoffs.  Great options.  I think we need better for Game 2 or Game 3.  If Game 2 is a home game then we probably want a LH SP going.  Is that Irvin or trading for a LH SP like a Kikuchi?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The stats I see for this season say 2.75 ERA.l and 1.25 WHIP. But yes most of the peripherals are good.

He stumbled a little at the start of the year and a bit recently, but has been pretty dominant otherwise and the stuff is still elite. If the Cardinals end up selling, which seems unlikely right now but could change by July 30th, he will cost A LOT to acquire (and we should seriously consider paying it).

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

We don’t need an elite closer.  We need multiple high leverage relievers.

Yeah, this is where I am.  It's not just the one closer, although if I had to choose between the two scenarios here, this is where I'd lean...pushing everyone up an inning and not having to rely on Kimbrel in the 9th.  But, IMO, we need more than one high leverage reliever.

I'm too busy at work and trying not to be distracted or else maybe MAYBE I'd do some research here...but I think as the game has changed over the years, an elite bullpen is extremely important in the playoffs more now than ever.  If I recall correctly, that's how the Royals shut us down in the playoffs and that's what they rode to their World Series championship the following season.

I get the need for having frontline starters, but I almost think that's a luxury in some ways.  Yeah, it's great to have someone like Burnes but if he gives 5 innings of 4 runs in a playoff game, you're still in the game but you need to make sure they don't score in the 6th-9th while your offense goes to work.

I'm rambling, but whatever.  Our bullpen needs two upgrades, maybe three.

[The Goob]

39 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I think game 3 starter is a bigger need to get to the playoffs. I think closer will be more important in the playoffs. 

To get to the playoffs?  Any model you look at gives the Orioles greater than a 95% probability to make the playoffs.  I think all the talk of a starter is the focus on the ups and downs of the team over the last several weeks.  This team has a +110 run differential.  Does anyone think the Phillies or Dodgers are not going to make the playoffs? The Orioles are in the exact same situation as them as far as making the playoffs.  Only difference is they don't have a team like the Yankees in their division.  The more balanced schedule though means that fact does not impact our ability to be a playoff team.

This team should be focused on what it needs to be successful in the playoffs.  To me that clearly is arms in the bullpen that can dominate a game after 5-6 innings from your starter.  Who starts Game 3 of a playoff series is not a significant determination of playoff success.  That guy may only get 4 starts in an entire postseason run even if every series went the distance.

Edited Thursday at 14:17 by The Goob

[Rbiggs2525]

Just now, The Goob said:

To get to the playoffs?  Any model you look at gives the Orioles greater than a 95% probability to make the playoffs.  I think all the talk of a starter is the focus on the ups and downs of the team over the last several week.  This team has a +110 run differential.  Does anyone think the Phillies or Dodgers are not going to make the playoffs? The Orioles are in the exact same situation as them as far as making the playoffs.  Only difference is they don't have a team like the Yankees in their division.  The more balanced schedule though mean that fact does not impact our ability to be a playoff team.

This team should be focused on what it needs to be successful in the playoffs.  To me that clearly is arms in the bullpen that can dominate a game after 5-6 innings from your starter.  Who starts Game 3 of a playoff series is not a significant determination of playoff success.  That guy may only get 4 starts in an entire postseason run even if every series went the distance.

I was speaking more in terms of getting to the playoffs with a moderately healthy bullpen. Right now 3-5 of our starters are lucky to go 4-5 innings per start.I personally believe Povich gets 4 starts in postseason you win 2 of them. 

[dystopia]

59 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I get your point that there aren’t that many elite closets to begin with. And probably one Miller is available.

Maybe Helsley will available? While he is not  elite, he is better than any reliever that we currently have. Maybe Tyler or Taylor Rodgers from SF will be available? Maybe Lucas Erceg? Tanner Scott?

Again, none of these guys is elite but most are better than what we have now as guys who can be used in late inning/high leverage situations.

I honestly don’t think STL trades him at all. They’re likely to make the wild card. 

[The Goob]

9 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I was speaking more in terms of getting to the playoffs with a moderately healthy bullpen. Right now 3-5 of our starters are lucky to go 4-5 innings per start.I personally believe Povich gets 4 starts in postseason you win 2 of them. 

And if that were to happen then I think this team has a very good chance to win a World Series.  If they win the division they can go 11-8 and win the World Series.  If they go 2-2 in Povich starts they need to go 9-6 in games started by everyone else with Burnes and Grayson likely making 12-14 of those starts.  The Orioles are 25-18 against teams with a winning record (was 30 wins yesterday before the Rays dropped a game below .500) and are 11-5 when Burnes starts and 10-4 when Grayson starts.  

Edited Thursday at 14:29 by The Goob

[Flash- bd]

Suárez, for me, in the bullpen can profile as a high leverage arm. With McDermott there's certainly a hope that we call him up August or September and we see a high leverage arm. There are solutions in house. We probably need to trade for one pitcher more, or perhaps two, but I would probably go with the same market approach as we did last season with Flaherty and Fuji, working around the fringes and giving up more expendable prospects / players like Norby, Bradfield Jr., Horvath, Urias, Mateo, Hays, Mountcastle, etc. Another Flaherty type for this season would do us well. 

[Philip]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m not sure closer is the right way to frame it. Because Kimbrel is actually better than Cano or Perez. What we need is a reliable power arm with strikeout stuff who can slot somewhere towards the backend of games in high leverage situations.

And we need a #2/3 starter who can give be a credible starting pitcher when it’s time for the postseason. And ensure that we are not entering many more regular season series with Irvin/Suarez/Povich. One is fine, two is okay. The three together are a matchup disadvantage especially against the better teams.

I don’t think it’s an either/or choice though. Because in order to plug or holes/cover out weaknesses, we need both of those things.

I was going to post something like this. I strongly disagree with the concept of “closer” but we need some reliable guys who can come in the throw a clean inning. I don’t care who throws the ninth, or the eighth or the seventh, and I don’t think it should be anyone in particular. I just want him to hit the mound, throw a few uneventful pitches, and then leave the mound with nothing changed except increased anguish in the opposing dugout.

And we need a starter, a good one.

I wonder if Mike is looking in Korea or Japan or Mexico for someone far from the madding crowd to come be Suarez 2.0 for a while.

[LGOrioles]

2 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Suárez, for me, in the bullpen can profile as a high leverage arm. With McDermott there's certainly a hope that we call him up August or September and we see a high leverage arm. There are solutions in house. We probably need to trade for one pitcher more, or perhaps two, but I would probably go with the same market approach as we did last season with Flaherty and Fuji, working around the fringes and giving up more expendable prospects / players like Norby, Bradfield Jr., Horvath, Urias, Mateo, Hays, Mountcastle, etc. Another Flaherty type for this season would do us well. 

Suarez has below average stuff, below average K and BB rates, and average chase and whiff rates. I think it would be tough to see him as a high leverage arm unless the stuff ticks up in relief, which it didn’t earlier this season. I think he’s better suited as the long relief option. 

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Orange said:

If you asked me if I'd rather have a healthy Bradish or a healthy Bautista, it's Bradish all day long.

Beg to differ. Bradish influences every fifth game; Bautista influences almost every game, because he either will pitch, or could pitch, unless the game isn’t close, which would happen enough to give him the necessary time off.

[CynBeth]

I said starter because we need someone that can pitch well and go 6 or 7 innings and not keep having to overtax the bullpen by early exits.  It would also give our offense a chance to score and not always have to come from behind.