Heston Kjerstad 2024

[spiritof66]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The discussion in the offseason was, if you trade one, who do you trade.

I kept going back and forth on the answer but my ultimate thought process was that Cowser is the better all around player but Kjerstad’s best tool, his power, is better than any single tool Cowser has.

I still basically stand by that thought. 
 

This is a long winded way of saying Kjerstad’s power is just better than Cowser’s, so he definitely can get away with things that Cowser can’t.

You have pointed out a lot of warning track outs for Cowser. I would suspect many of those would be homers off of Kjerstad’s bat.

IMO, if Cowser stays with the Orioles, it will be largely because of his defensive ability, especially his ability to play a passable CF. Those qualities are in short supplr right now, and with their need for pitching, Mullins' signs of life, and (so far) reluctance to give up talent in trades, I don't see a CF upgrade coming any time soon. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Any historical players that people think are comparables to Kjerstad.  High power/decent average/poor to passable defense at 1B/RF/DH.  I thought of Tony Armas.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/armasto01.shtml  I think Kjerstad would have better OBP.

[interloper]

It struck me last night that Kjerstad kind of looks like a supersized Holliday lol. Upright batting stance, big leg kick, and obv the "Orioles prospect factory" appearance. 

[sportsfan8703]

23 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

IMO, if Cowser stays with the Orioles, it will be largely because of his defensive ability, especially his ability to play a passable CF. Those qualities are in short supplr right now, and with their need for pitching, Mullins' signs of life, and (so far) reluctance to give up talent in trades, I don't see a CF upgrade coming any time soon. 

Heston should get AB's over Cowser the rest of this season.  Cowser has like a .500 OPS since the first few weeks of the season.  Hopefully, he'll turn it around.  

Through 106 Games and 342 PA Cowser has a .685 OPS.  

In 26 Games and 70 PA Kjerstad has a .879 OPS.  

SSS, but early results nonetheless.  

[Big Mac]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Heston should get AB's over Cowser the rest of this season.  Cowser has like a .500 OPS since the first few weeks of the season.  Hopefully, he'll turn it around.  

Through 106 Games and 342 PA Cowser has a .685 OPS.  

In 26 Games and 70 PA Kjerstad has a .879 OPS.  

SSS, but early results nonetheless.  

Well this is just blatantly incorrect.  He did have a .580 OPS in May followed by a .679 in June.  Over the last 28 days, he has a .738 OPS and over the last week its .850.  Throughout this entire stretch his batted ball data remained strong.  Are the first few weeks of the season carrying his numbers?  Sure.  But to say he has "like a .500 OPS" since the first few weeks of the season is massive stretch.

This also isn't taking into account the defensive dropoff from Cowser to Kjerstad.  The good news is there is plenty of room for both of them to get regular at-bats. 

[Hallas]

I went down the rabbit hole of name pronunciations and apparently in Norwegian, KJ produces a sound that doesn't exist in English, so replacing that sound with a K and making the J silent is a reasonable approximation.

 

I thought it would be "keer-stad" in whatever Nordic country origin, but nope.  They use the same vowel sound as the English pronunciation.

[NashLumber]

On 7/3/2024 at 10:36 AM, interloper said:

It struck me last night that Kjerstad kind of looks like a supersized Holliday lol. Upright batting stance, big leg kick, and obv the "Orioles prospect factory" appearance. 

Definitely. Fair-skinned blondies with shaggy hair. Just off the top of my head: 

Stowers

Kjerstad

Gunnar

Holiday

[Filmstudy]

On 7/2/2024 at 6:12 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

Any historical players that people think are comparables to Kjerstad.  High power/decent average/poor to passable defense at 1B/RF/DH.  I thought of Tony Armas.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/armasto01.shtml  I think Kjerstad would have better OBP.

That particular combination has been very common in corner outfielders, 1B, and DH.  Some guys who hit 25 HRs for the Orioles and meet the passable avg/below avg defender include:

Larry Sheets

Don Baylor

Jay Gibbons

Mike Young

Nelson Cruz

Mark Trumbo

Trey Mancini

Bobby Bonilla

Luke Scott

Armas did not walk often (4.7% career walk rate) and Kjerstad should be a guy who walks significantly more as he demonstrates MLB power (I think he could be 8-11%).

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

That particular combination has been very common in corner outfielders, 1B, and DH.  Some guys who hit 25 HRs for the Orioles and meet the passable avg/below avg defender include:

Larry Sheets

Don Baylor

Jay Gibbons

Mike Young

Nelson Cruz

Mark Trumbo

Trey Mancini

Bobby Bonilla

Luke Scott

Armas did not walk often (4.7% career walk rate) and Kjerstad should be a guy who walks significantly more as he demonstrates MLB power (I think he could be 8-11%).

Not that there aren’t good players on this list but if this is his upside, we should look to trade him.

[OnlyOneOriole]

6 hours ago, NashLumber said:

Definitely. Fair-skinned blondies with shaggy hair. Just off the top of my head: 

Stowers

Kjerstad

Gunnar

Holiday

Not only  fair skinned and blond, but facially I have always thought HK and JH look a lot alike.  Could be brothers.

[Jim'sKid26]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not that there aren’t good players on this list but if this is his upside, we should look to trade him.

Don Baylor: MVP, all star, 3 time silver slugger, 28.7 bWAR, 338 HRs, career OPS+ = 118

Nelson Cruz: 7 time all star, 4 time silver slugger, 42.1 bWAR, 464 HRs, career OPS+ = 130

Bobby Bonilla: 6 time all star, 3 time silver slugger, 30.2 bWAR, 287 HRs, career OPS+ = 124

 

If I'm Heston Kjerstad, I'd take any one of those careers and be tremendously thankful. 

[kidrock]

On 7/2/2024 at 6:12 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

Any historical players that people think are comparables to Kjerstad.  High power/decent average/poor to passable defense at 1B/RF/DH.  I thought of Tony Armas.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/armasto01.shtml  I think Kjerstad would have better OBP.

Maybe Carlos Lee lite or something

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Don Baylor: MVP, all star, 3 time silver slugger, 28.7 bWAR, 338 HRs, career OPS+ = 118

Nelson Cruz: 7 time all star, 4 time silver slugger, 42.1 bWAR, 464 HRs, career OPS+ = 130

Bobby Bonilla: 6 time all star, 3 time silver slugger, 30.2 bWAR, 287 HRs, career OPS+ = 124

 

If I'm Heston Kjerstad, I'd take any one of those careers and be tremendously thankful. 

Of course….like I said, there are good players there but if I’m the Os, if this is his best case scenario (and certainly not most likely scenario), I don’t feel too bad about trading him for a true difference making talent.

Kjerstad is the guy that you really have to think about.  His value is strong imo, both if we keep Him or if he’s traded.
 

But ultimately, how do you view him? Is he a player capable of being good enough in the OF? Is he a platoon guy or do you feel he hits lefties as well? 
 

I said this the other day but I think his power is better than any tool Cowser has but that Cowser is the better all around player.  I don’t see the Os trading Cowser because of how they value defense.

And it’s not that you have to choose between these guys and Kjerstad doesn’t have to be a GGer to be valuable in the OF but you do have to get guys to help this year and while we should be able to do that without trading any of the top guys, what if we can’t? Do you forgo your best chance to upgrade the team because you don’t want to lose Kjerstad? 
 

I think they keep him and get done what they need to get done but this question will carry on into the offseason and you will now be fully introducing Mayo and Holliday into the conversation and Basallo will be quickly coming behind them and his bat will impact the playing time of Kjerstad, just as Mayo’s could as well.

It’s a fascinating puzzle that Elias has to put together and he has to do it while also building a pitching staff that will be in pretty mediocre situation heading into the offseason.

Edited Saturday at 13:13 by Sports Guy

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course….like I said, there are good players there but if I’m the Os, if this is his best case scenario (and certainly not most likely scenario), I don’t feel too bad about trading him for a true difference making talent.

Kjerstad is the guy that you really have to think about.  His value is strong imo, both if we keep Him or if he’s traded.
 

But ultimately, how do you view him? Is he a player capable of being good enough in the OF? Is he a platoon guy or do you feel he hits lefties as well? 
 

I said this the other day but I think his power is better than any tool Cowser has but that Cowser is the better all around player.  I don’t see the Os trading Cowser because of how they value defense.

And it’s not that you have to choose between these guys and Kjerstad doesn’t have to be a GGer to be valuable in the OF but you do have to get guys to help this year and while we should be able to do that without trading any of the top guys, what if we can’t? Do you forgo your best chance to upgrade the team because you don’t want to lose Kjerstad? 
 

I think they keep him and get done what they need to get done but this question will carry on into the offseason and you will now be fully introducing Mayo and Holliday into the conversation and Basallo will be quickly coming behind them and his bat will impact the playing time of Kjerstad, just as Mayo’s could as well.

It’s a fascinating puzzle that Elias has to put together and he has to do it while also building a pitching staff that will be in pretty mediocre situation heading into the offseason.

If you honestly think Silent J is destined to have a 30ish bWAR career with multiple AS appearances and SSs don't you want to keep him? He's inexpensive right now. His value, if you believe that you are likely to get that level of production, is extremely high. Now, I see your point if he's more comparable to Jay Gibbons or Luke Scott. I think the listed comps are a bit of a stretch on both sides of his likely career outcome.  FWIW 

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

If you honestly think Silent J is destined to have a 30ish bWAR career with multiple AS appearances and SSs don't you want to keep him? He's inexpensive right now. His value, if you believe that you are likely to get that level of production, is extremely high. Now, I see your point if he's more comparable to Jay Gibbons or Luke Scott. I think the listed comps are a bit of a stretch on both sides of his likely career outcome.  FWIW 

Well, it’s not as straight forward as you say.

First of all, you said the key words..career WAR. What are the chances we keep him for his entire career?

So then it’s really, what do you expect out of him the next 3-5 years and does that production outweigh what a player like Skubal can give you and does it outweigh our long term need for starters?

Skubal was worth 3.3 fWAR in 15 starts last year and 2.9 in 17 this year. He’s a 4-6 WAR starter and maybe more outside of Detroit.

Good chance Skubal out WARs this whole package for the next 2 years and if that happens, he makes it easier for us to win a title.