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Fangraphs Updated Top 45 Prospect List

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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59 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

 Liranzo is missing too.

FG has a light staff for cover all 30 orgs.  They have been publishing their lists later and later too.  Much of the rankings are based on 2023 and maybe some 2024 international scouting.  They also have a model that influences rankings (which is off too).

Liranzo is an absolute miss off the list, and it's too early to ditch Almeyda as as prospect too. Some of these rankings and guys they have on and guys they don't are head scratchers. Some of these "reports" look preseason, not updated as Forrett has definitely shown a solid average changeup that may be his best offspeed offering at times.

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Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-45-prospects-2024/ Basallo is up to a 60 grade.

RZNJ
RZNJ

Fangraphs is fun but these guys are out there sometimes.   Last year they had Cowser at #12.   This year they have Fabian at #12 and Norby at #19.   I get that Fabian has defensive value compared to N

Hallas
Hallas

The author had special notes regarding Cowser. Based on this I'd infer that Cowser would be #4 above Povich if he did a regrade, but he's trying to be honorable and fall on his sword here since

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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On 6/28/2024 at 1:25 PM, RZNJ said:

I thought it was an exaggeration.  We only have 7 teams, including both DSL teams and the FCL.   Even if every team has 13 pitchers or so, can there possibly be more than 100 pitchers in the entire system?

Including the DSL/FCL teams, the O's have at least 147 pitchers in the MIL organization.  2024 Baltimore Orioles Minor League Affiliates | Baseball-Reference.com

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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On 6/29/2024 at 11:38 AM, Tony-OH said:

Liranzo is an absolute miss off the list, and it's too early to ditch Almeyda as as prospect too. Some of these rankings and guys they have on and guys they don't are head scratchers. Some of these "reports" look preseason, not updated as Forrett has definitely shown a solid average changeup that may be his best offspeed offering at times.

Other than your list, I find the Fangraphs list the most informative because they give a pretty full write-up even to guys ranked below the top 30.   Heck, the fact that they've got Forret ranked no. 17 shows they are paying attention, even if their report on his stuff might not be right up to the minute.  I agree that missing Liranzo is a head scratcher.  

In addition to the general comment about depth of hard throwers in the system, I liked this comment:  "Because Baltimore’s player dev is so good, anyone with interesting traits in the lower levels needs to be monitored because they might improve quickly and become suddenly relevant."

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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27 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Surprised that Stowers and Aron Estrada are not on the list.  

Stowers was the guy that first leapt out to me.

I thought maybe it was an eligibility issue, but they still have Cowser on the list, although he does not maintain prospect status.

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OsFanSinceThe80s Hangout Grand Counsel

OsFanSinceThe80s

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28 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Surprised that Stowers and Aron Estrada are not on the list.  

 

Just now, Pickles said:

Stowers was the guy that first leapt out to me.

I thought maybe it was an eligibility issue, but they still have Cowser on the list, although he does not maintain prospect status.

It is an eligibility issue from the comments:

image.png.5248b91aac85057f5f07b0e32ed22572.png

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Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

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On 6/29/2024 at 7:37 AM, btdart20 said:

 Liranzo is missing too.

FG has a light staff for cover all 30 orgs.  They have been publishing their lists later and later too.  Much of the rankings are based on 2023 and maybe some 2024 international scouting.  They also have a model that influences rankings (which is off too).

I think there's a pretty good chance Fangraphs doesn't exist in its current state in about 5 years.  They had some revolutionary stuff like 20 years ago but their staff has constantly gotten either poached by MLB teams or poached by MLB itself, and I don't think they've really had the tools to continue to push the envelope with new analysis.  Since MLB now has a monopoly on all the newest data they are going to be operating at a disadvantage relative to MLB's own staff.  And the director of research at MLB is was also poached from THT/Fangraphs.

 

I wonder if they'll just license out their stats at some point, or just take a buyout from MLB.

 

It's unfortunate because they had some nice exclusives, like their prospect list and trade value lists.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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30 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, be that as it may, Cowser is definitely no eligible.

 

14 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Take it up with Fangraphs. 🙃

I would have figured Cowser has graduated from the prospect list too.

I believe it's based on status at the start of the 2024 season, that way it's not a moving target as they release the lists over the course of the season.

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Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

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33 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, be that as it may, Cowser is definitely no eligible.

Cowser was eligible at the beginning of the year and they touched on that; they didn't upgrade Cowser's grade because he ran out of eligibility early in the season and they felt like changing his grade like that would be cheating so they would just live with being wrong.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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8 hours ago, Pickles said:

Well, be that as it may, Cowser is definitely no eligible.

I think Fangraphs decides who’s eligible as of the start of the season.  Unlike other publications that release all their team lists at the same time, Fangraphs slow rolls theirs over a 6 month period or so.   Therefore, to put all the teams on the same footing, they base eligibility as of the start of the season.   

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